Weekly Fantasy Golf Preview: Cadillac Championship

Cadillac Championship

Trump National Doral (Blue Monster)
Miami, FL

The PGA Tour heads to Miami for the Cadillac Championship -- the first event held at Doral in 10 years.

I often talk about how golf, even for the best of the best, is so much different than every other sport because there is so much time to think about your next move. We, the weekend hackers, have all kinds of thoughts running through our minds when we play and there's generally little, if nothing, on the line. 

Imagine then the thoughts running through the mind of Alex Fitzpatrick on Sunday as he played a round of golf that could change his career trajectory. This wasn't some run-of-the-mill PGA Tour player trying to break through, this was a guy who's best shot at a spot on the PGA Tour occurred once per season and it was always as a long shot. But on this Sunday, it was more than a possibility -- he and his brother were favored to win.

A win would change everything for the younger Fitzpatrick. He'd not only become a member of the PGA Tour for the next two seasons, he'd get invites to some big events, giving him a chance to gain some footing. The attention from this win would also likely result in sponsor's exemptions down the road. This win meant everything.

Imagine then again what must have been going through his head Sunday. Is it possible to think that he could block all that out? Surely he'd talked about it with his brother, right?

Somehow, with all that running through his mind, he managed to play well enough to capture the win. It didn't hurt that his brother -- a red-hot Matt Fitzpatrick -- was there helping the cause, but still, it was a very impressive showing from a guy who wasn't used to being in that position. Alex had every opportunity to crack under pressure and he didn't. I'd go as far as to say that many expected him to crack, but he got through it and now the gates are open for a future on the PGA Tour.

As we move onto this week, it's another Signature Event, but this one is not like the others. There's nothing special about it, but it's on an unfamiliar track and a handful of top players are not in attendance. We've had a player or two skip a Signature Event before, but nothing like what we're seeing here. Unfortunately, the field resembles one we'd see at a bigger event, but not a Signature one.

The good news is Scottie Scheffler is here. The bad news, at least for fantasy purposes, is that there's a huge gap in the course history dating back to the last PGA Tour event at Doral in 2016. Less than half the field has experience on this course, which could give them an edge, but not much a decade on.

After this stop we have another Signature Event and then the PGA Championship. It's certainly interesting that the trio is stacked together, and it's the main reason for the multitude of absences at Doral.

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FAVORITES

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 2:30 PM ET Wednesday.

Scottie Scheffler (29-10) 

I mentioned earlier that this field looks more like a strong non-Signature event, and the odds would back that up. Outside of Scheffler, there is only one other golfer under 20-1 to start the week. As for Scheffler, he's one of many that have never played this course, but it shouldn't matter for him as when we last saw Scheffler, he was in pretty good form. I keep waiting for a run from Scheffler, and yes I realize he's been playing well for most of this season, but I'm waiting for a Scheffler-like run where he rips off a couple wins in a row. This could be the start of a run like that as many of the best in the world are not around to stop him this week.

Cameron Young (12-1)

This is a new spot for Young, the second-favorite at a signature event. Yes, it's by default, but what a long way he's come this season. Young went from an underachiever to someone that's a threat to win any given week, even against signature-level fields. Young played some excellent golf from late February through early April, securing four consecutive top-10s (all in signature events) and he picked up his first PGA Tour win as well at The PLAYERS Championship. The encouraging thing about Young was that he didn't get complacent with that big win at The PLAYERS, he built on it, in his very next start. Young has long been targeted as a golfer with a ton of upside and I think we're just seeing the start of it right now. He's a first-timer here as well, but form will likely matter more than course history this week as most in the field are in the same boat as Young and Scheffler.

Collin Morikawa (20-1)

Morikawa didn't look 100 percent at the Masters a few weeks ago, but he managed to land in the top-10. In his most recent start, he posted a T4 at the RBC Heritage. I think it's safe to say that even if he's not full strength, he's back to a point where he can contend and possibly win. He had an extra week off after his most recent start, so maybe he is fully recovered, if so, he should be in the mix. Morikawa, like the two ahead of him on the odds chart, is a first-timer here, so that could be an issue, or maybe it'll be nothing. Considering most of the players in the field are dealing with the same challenge, Morikawa shouldn't be discounted.

Visit our golf betting section for the latest PGA odds and finishing props from multiple sportsbooks.

THE NEXT TIER

Tommy Fleetwood (27-1)

Sticking with that same category, SG: Tee to Green, Fleetwood ranks 7th on the PGA Tour this year. As a potential bonus, he has played Doral also. I say potential bonus because he didn't exactly fare well, he finished T71, but he did make the cut. Perhaps he learned something valuable in those four rounds, something that the first-timers won't find out until they get into their rounds. Outside of that, his form is okay entering the week, he's coming off what looks like a bad start at the RBC Heritage, where he tied for 52nd, but that was due to a poor opening round of 76. After that round he shot 67-69-67, so I think he's feeling okay entering this week.

Si Woo Kim (30-1)

Since we don't have much course history to lean on this week, I'm forced to do something that I don't usually do and that's dig into the individual stat categories. For this week, SG: Tee to Green would seem to be quite important as there is a lot of trouble at Doral, so safely getting to the green is more important this week than other categories like SG: Putting. The guys at the top of this category are no surprise, Rory McIlroy, Morikawa, Fitzpatrick and then there's Kim, who is one spot ahead of Scheffler. Kim had a bit of a rough patch after a hot start to this season, but he finished in 3rd-place in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage.

Adam Scott (35-1)

There's a nice flow to this week's picks. The favorites are all first-timers, the next two are stat-based picks and this one, along with the next one, are based on course history. Scott won this event in 2016, so not only is he one of the small group of players that has experience here, but he has positive experience. In fact, Scott has a long track record of success on this course. Prior to his win, he finished T4 in 2015 and T3 in 2013. He's yet to miss a cut in 10 starts here. Of everyone in the field, he has the best feel for this course heading into the week.

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LONG SHOTS

Justin Rose (40-1)         

Like Scott, Rose not only has played here several times, but he's had a lot of success here as well. Rose won this event in 2012, which he backed-up with another top-10 the following year. We haven't seen Rose since the Masters and maybe that's a good thing because he probably needed some time to regroup after fading in the final round in what could have been another major win. With any luck, he'll be refreshed and ready to go. A return to Doral should boost his spirits as well as it's always nice to come back to a course where you've had success.   

Ryo Hisatsune (100-1)   

Let's go back to a stats pick for the final play. Hisatsune ranks 13th in SG: Tee to Green, which will give him an edge on most of the players in the field. He'll need to improve his putting to contend this week, but as we all know, putting comes and goes for most of the guys on the PGA Tour, only a select few have the blade working every week. If Hisatsune can get it going like he did earlier this season, maybe he can break through for his first PGA Tour win.  

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Scottie Scheffler – Scheffler was a popular play at the RBC Heritage two weeks ago and I have to imagine he will be more popular this time around. It's the perfect scenario, he's on his game and a lot of big guns are missing. The only question this week is how he'll take to Doral. His game is suited for every environment, so there shouldn't be any issues, but if you're looking for a reason to fade him this week, that would be it. Otherwise, there's no reason to avoid him this week…unless you're saving him for a specific spot later in the season.     

Moderately-Chosen Pick: Cameron Young – This is the best opportunity for a big check for everyone in the field, so if you're fine with using a first-timer and you want to hold onto Scheffler, then Young is your man. Young has flipped the switch this season, he got the monkey off his back at The PLAYERS, so there's no reason to think he'll have difficulty closing if he finds himself in position on Sunday. Again though, if you're worried about the first-time thing, then maybe avoid those guys all together. There are plenty of guys to choose from that have experience here.        

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Adam Scott – I realize that his track record alone is going to convince some OAD players to get on board with Scott, but I also realize that this is a signature event and some OAD players just won't go this far down the odds chart with so much at stake. I think that's a mistake, especially this week as Scott has a big advantage over most of the field with his experience here.      

Buyer Beware: Sam Burns – I'm going to lean into the stats here and fade Burns. Burns ranks 98th in SG: Tee to Green, which we all know is going to be important this week. It's not a terrible ranking, but it puts him near the bottom of those in this field. Burns has played well in spots this year, but even when he's been on his game this year, he's been unable to close. Burns has yet to post a top-5 this season and I don't think we'll be seeing his first at Doral.  

My Pick: Adam Scott – I'm hoping most of my leaguemates go big and leave Scott off their radar. That's probably not going to happen as he's one of a few guys in the field that have actually played well on this course, but he's not a top-20 guy right now and a lot of OAD players refuse to go lower than that during signature events, so who knows. As for why I'm taking Scott, well, it's the track record. Back when this was a regular tour stop, Scott tore this course apart, with five top-10s in 10 starts. He failed to miss a cut during any of those 10 starts and he won here in 2016. His current form is not great, but it's not terrible either. He did contend at a Signature Event earlier this year, landing in 4th at the Genesis, so we know he can still hang with the best in the world.  

Previous Results

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FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Cameron Young ($11,800)
Middle Range: Adam Scott ($10,800)
Lower Range: Ryo Hisatsune ($7,600)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

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