Read The Line Betting Breakdown: Shriners Children's Open

Published on October 16, 2024

Full article available at Read The Line.

2024 Shriners Children's Open: Back in black

The PGA TOUR heads two hours southwest to the Las Vegas strip. The Shriners Children's Open is the fourth event of the FedExCup Fall. A mainstay on the annual fall schedule for some time, two-time defending champion Tom Kim heads to sin city in search of his third straight win at TPC Summerlin. The betting favorite by far, Kim is the only competitor with odds under +2500. I address Kim's chances in my Monday Odds Drop article, and am on the record stating I see more value down the board. The last time we saw the star South Korean on TOUR, he finished bogey, double, double to eject himself from the top 50 and out of the FedExCup Playoffs.

There was a ton of media surrounding Kim at the Presidents Cup, but 1.5 points as the emotional leader of your team doesn't inspire us to back him as the heavy favorite. Truth is, there are a bunch of guys playing really well in the early fall events. A couple of them are in the field of 132 in Vegas. Thirty-one of the top 100 in the OWGR are competing for $7 million. First place earns $1.26 million and a number of perks like an invite to the 2025 Masters! Seven million sounds like a nice purse, but that's down from $8.4 million. I'm not sure why, but all of the repeat fall events have awarded smaller purses in 2024. Thankfully it does not affect our odds, but overall, that's not a trend they want to continue on TOUR.

2024 Shriners Children's Open: Watch the weathervane

I am constantly asked about the process for building my betting card. One item on the weekly list is looking at the betting line for the winning score. The average winning score of the Shriners over the past five years is 23 under par. The over/under line for this week is 15.5! A difference like that on a course we know quite well is a major red flag. The forecast in Las Vegas this week calls for WIND. A steady breeze over 20 mph is expected for rounds one and two. Temperatures will be on the cooler end rising to the low 70s for rounds two, three, and four. The last time we saw weather like this during the Shriners was 2017. Patrick Cantlay won in a playoff at nine under par.

Each tee time wave will face the wind, so I don't see a specific advantage at this point. Before you lock those DFS lineups tonight, make sure you check the forecast one last time. This is why we include the weather link below. Quick access to the most important information leads to better betting. TPC Summerlin has a number of hazards. The par 71 scorecard measuring 7,255 yards hosts 92 bunkers and four holes where water comes into play. Three of those penalty areas are on the final three holes. Closing out rounds all week in these conditions will be challenging.

Normally, the guys will go deep each day. It will be very interesting to watch how the world's best handle this change to the course conditions. I covered the 2023 Shriners on property. The design features are very similar to last week in Utah. Similar skills will be needed to contend and keep the ball out of the desert. Last week it was lava, at TPC Summerlin it is the desert or a backyard. Homes surround the course at TPC Summerlin. The players will receive another carry bump in Vegas. The course is approximately 2,000 feet above sea level. The fairways and greens also roll with the Nevada terrain. The best ball strikers excel here because they can hit their targets from any lie.

The Shriners marks the midway point of the FedEx Cup Fall. The point lists are beginning to cement for next season. The two storylines still exist though. Get inside the top 125 to earn your card and between 51-60 for early season signature status. Vegas week has always been about scoring. I'm excited to watch these guys adjust. Wind can be a brutal competitor and in the wide-open spaces on the outskirts of Las Vegas it can really get blowing. Last year, the narrative surrounded Lexi Thompson's bid to make the cut on Friday. I remember walking with her group as she came close to the weekend. One of the cooler live moments I witnessed on TOUR in 2023. I'm not sure who will be the headliner this year, but rest assured they better be ready for a wild week out west.

2024 Shriners Children's Open: Roll the dice rock

The Black Desert Championship was a good preview for what to expect in North Las Vegas. The keys to contending in Utah are relevant again in the desert just south and west of last week's venue. I enjoyed the new event and hope the TOUR can keep the BDC on the schedule in years to come. I for one would look forward to covering both events in the future with just a short scenic drive between them. In an effort to avoid being redundant, I'll be brief in our preview for the specific skills needed to be successful at Summerlin.

The last five winners have gained an average of seven strokes on the field with their flatstick. I favored the putter last week, and the Korn Ferry's Tour's best putter won. You can't pick everyone, but the strategy makes sense. Whether the wind blows or not, the best putters excel at Summerlin. Bentgrass greens that average 7,400 sq/ft in size are pretty manageable. Players can make putts here.
The last 10 champions averaged 25 sub-par scores on their way to the winner's circle. Good putters shoot low scores. We have a team of guys across our card that have proven they can go low in the desert in multiple ways. The average cutline is four under par in the last five years. Considering the conditions it will probably be more like two under but expect to get a couple under par if you want to play the weekend.
The field scores on the par 5s, survives the par 3s, and separates on the par 4s. The average birdie rate on the par 5s is 46%. Three of the par 3s play to a scoring average over par and that leaves 11 holes left to take advantage of. The best par 4 scorers have proven to produce. Over the last decade, winners have gained an average of eight strokes on the field on the 4s.
Of the four basic strokes gained stats, approach holds the second biggest influence on success. Most of the approach shots fall between 125-175 yards (40%). Don't lose sight of the par 5s and three long par 3s. Those six approach shots fall in the 200+ range and represent the majority of the remaining iron shots. It much easier to separate from the field on longer approaches.
The key off the tee in Utah was finding the grass, any grass. We lose the lava, but Summerlin has desert and backyards surrounding the fairways in Las Vegas. Keep it in the green and you'll be able to attack on approach. Finding the grass landing areas may be more difficult in the wind, but overall, an above average amount of accuracy off the tee is required.
Wind will cause the field to miss their targets. I believe scrambling will be another edge for this week due to the weather. Many of the best birdiefest players aren't always the best short game guys. That's why they excel on easy golf courses and struggle when the demands become more difficult. Around the green skill will not only save pars/rounds it will also be the difference in the end of a couple strokes which will define our winner and loser(s). Scrambling at Summerlin will set you apart.
One consideration we couldn't use last week was course history. When the wind blows, players who have an intimate knowledge of playing TPC Summerlin in the wind (or similar conditions) share an advantage. That's another significant edge over 72-holes. The same guys always perform here for a reason under normal conditions. Throw is a huge change like 20+ mph winds and those with limited local knowledge will be left behind.

Walking the course last year, I learned a bunch about this layout. Traveling to these sites gives us an incredible edge. When the elements go awry in Vegas, our local knowledge will lead to a positive card.

2024 Shriners Children's Open: Outright Winners

Beau Hossler (+3300)

Hossler has been on a great fall run.

Hossler has five trips to Summerlin and averages a +5-strokes gained total on the field per start.
Beau finished runner-up at the Sanderson and eleventh at Black Desert.
Over the past two years, Hossler has 11 fall starts. He's gaining an average of 1.1 strokes per round in those events.
Beau is ranked sixth for BoB% in the field.
Hossler's best fall weapon has been his putter over the past two years.

Harris English (+4500)

How many players in this field have four career wins (or more)? English does.

English played beautifully in Utah finishing sixth and gaining five strokes with his putter. He gained another four strokes T2G.
In nine Summerlin starts, Harry is gaining an average of 2.2 strokes per start.
English is fifty-fourth on the FedEx Cup points list. A big week seals his signature status for 2025.
English is ranked sixth in the field for scrambling. When the wind comes, Harry will be ready to handle it.

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