Truist Championship One and Done Picks
Another week, another Signature Event. The Truist Championship is the second straight limited-field tournament and the third in four weeks. Only two such events remain on the calendar. While world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is electing to skip the Truist Championship, two-time Masters Champion Rory McIlroy -- a four-time winner at Quail Hollow -- will be making his first start since successfully defending his Green Jacket four weeks ago.
Cameron Young and Matt Fitzpatrick -- who both won multiple times over the last two months -- are the other top names joining McIlroy in the field. Young scored victories at THE PLAYERS and last week's Cadillac Championship while Fitzpatrick took down the Valspar Championship, RBC Heritage and Zurich Classic. The four players mentioned occupy the top four spots in the Official World Golf Ranking and have separated themselves from the pack for the time being. However, others like Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Aberg, Tommy Fleetwood and Si Woo Kim could be primed to join that group with a win in the Queen City.
This will be the second year Truist has served as the title sponsor for this event. Last year it was hosted at Philadelphia Cricket Club because Quail Hollow had the rights to the PGA Championship, which the absent Scheffler ended up winning by five strokes.
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Course Tidbits
- Course: Quail Hollow Club (7,583 yards, par 71)
- Location: Charlotte, North Carolina
- Purse: $20 million -- $3.6 million to winner
- Defending Champion: Sepp Straka (-16) [Hosted at Philadelphia Cricket Club]
- 2025 PGA Championship Winner at Quail Hollow: Scottie Scheffler (-11)
- 2025 PGA Championship Scoring Average at Quail Hollow: 72.51
- Average Winning Score Last 5 Tournaments at Quail Hollow: -14.4
Quail Hollow offers one of the most complete tests on the PGA Tour, with every club in the bag being needed if you want to score. Quail Hollow is a favorite amongst the players because it does an excellent job of identifying the best golfer that particular week. The course offers opportunities for birdies and eagles if you are in control of your golf ball, but those who are slightly off will have a tough time even making par. It is a place where those playing the best will be able to easily separate. The last three champions at Quail Hollow won by at least four strokes.
Much like last week at Doral, the bombers will have a big advantage around Quail Hollow. It's a very long course and SG: Off-the-Tee has been highly correlated to success. McIlroy and Schauffele finished 1-2 in that category for the week at the last Truist Championship hosted at Quail Hollow in 2024 on their way to finishing 1-2 on the leaderboard. Bryson DeChambeau led the PGA Championship held here last year in SG: Off-the-Tee en route to a T2 finish.
Iron play -- long-iron play in particular -- is also extremely important here. Quail Hollow has the highest average approach distance on Tour at 185 yards, so the top flushers should surge up the leaderboard. Last year Harris English paced the field in SG: Approach on his way to a T2 finish, while 2023 Quail Hollow winner Wyndham Clark also gained the most strokes approaching the greens.
Short game and putting statistics can't be ignored either. Most of the greens are elevated and run off on all sides to short-grass pitching areas. That combined with all the lengthy approach shots should lead to plenty of strokes being gained or lost around the putting surfaces. The Bermuda greens are also annually among the quickest on Tour, so it's not too tough to three-putt.
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RotoWire One and Done Tools
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Truist Championship: One and Done Picks
There are a lot of similarities between Doral and Quail Hollow. Both heavily favor the bombers and use of driver, both have a high average approach distance and both are blanketed in Bermudagrass. Young blew away a great field last week and really appears unbeatable when his game is in this type of shape -- especially when the course fit is this strong. I'll be hoping those with Young still available elect to save him for a major. --Ryan Andrade
Kim had a couple bad weeks at THE PLAYERS and Masters but otherwise has been otherworldly in the best season of his career. That included last week with a tie for fourth. Very often, poor putters such as Kim have trouble finishing top-10. The rest of his game has been so elite, though, that he is still piling up not only top-10s but top-5s. --Len Hochberg
Schauffele has dominated Quail Hollow over his last 16 rounds, ranking first in SG: Total and SG: Tee-to-Green among this field while sitting second in both Ball Striking and Off-the-Tee. Consecutive runner-up finishes here in 2023 and 2024 further back what the numbers already show. With Schauffele's game clicking at the right time, the numbers and the results are pointing in the same direction. --Lauren Jump
Coming off his second straight Masters victory and with four Quail Hollow wins McIlroy is the obvious OAD chalk. However, Schauffele deserves some course-fit recognition as well after posting back-to-back runner-up finishes here at the 2023 and 2024 Wells Fargo Championships. He's No. 1 among this Signature Event field in scrambling and third in SG: Ball Striking per round (1.34) this season, and he ranks sixth in overall proximity from 150-200 yards over his past 20 rounds. Placing 3-T4-T9-T12 across four starts dating back to THE PLAYERS, Schauffele is trending toward his first triumph of the year. --Bryce Danielson
I'm hoping most of my competition will save McIlroy for one of the final three majors, which will allow me to gain some ground if he happens to win. Either way, I think this is the right play because his 6-1 odds are the shortest odds we'll see this season. The reason of course is that Scheffler is out of the mix, but beyond that, McIlroy has an outstanding record both in this event and on this course. The only thing that worries me about him is the hangover from another Masters win, but hopefully he learned something last year and will avoid a mid-season slump this time around. --Greg Vara
Aberg has been consistently great over the last two months, with Young being the only other golfer with four top-5s across the last five events. Although he hasn't won in nearly 15 months, it's difficult to imagine that lasts much longer. Aberg ranks 36th or better in every strokes gained category, showing that there's no weakness in his game. The only knock is a lack of experience at Quail Hollow, but that should keep him from being overly popular, and his distance advantage fits the course well. It's a great time to use him if you haven't. --Ryan Pohle
There are three majors to go, of course, but with some LIV options still available and McIlroy being absolutely dominant at Quail Hollow it's time for me to deploy him. There is reason to believe he could be a little rusty having not appeared in an event since the Masters, but he took time off before his wins here in both 2021 and 2024 so I'm confident that will not be an issue. --Kevin O'Brien
Truist Championship: One and Done Fades
MacIntyre is 11th on DataGolf and 12th in the OWGR, but I have to fade him this week. Approach play is so critical at Quail Hollow, and he has really struggled in that department this season, ranking 136th in SG: Approach and 150th in proximity to the hole. The Scot doesn't seem to be in a great place after his terrible showing at the Masters, a T42 at Harbour Town and a skip of last week's Signature Event. The iron play was much better last season, and I think it's worth holding onto him until he gets back to that point. --Ryan Andrade
It's always dangerous fading Hovland because we know what he's capable of. But he shows that so infrequently these days. He has just one top-10 all season, barely, and that came three months ago. His strokes-gained metrics are not that bad, but he really needs his approach play to be great and it's merely very good, as he ranks 42nd in that department. --Len Hochberg
Theegala doesn't profile well here. Quail Hollow rewards elite ball-striking and approach precision, neither of which he ranks well in among the top players in this field. Two career starts at this course produced a T52 (2024) and a T56 (2023), and he withdrew last year. Save him for a venue that better suits his game. --Lauren Jump
The market continues to overrate Fleetwood, as he appears right around the sixth spot on the outright betting board. I'll happily continue to fade the Englishman, who placed T23-T52-T33 over his past three outings. He lost a collective 5.72 strokes on approach throughout his last 10 rounds and ranks just 63rd among the 72-man field in overall proximity this season. If the iron play does return at any point in the near future, I'd prefer Fleetwood on a shorter track than Quail Hollow, anyway. --Bryce Danielson
I like to aim high on my fades, so why not take aim at a guy who is 16-1? Honestly, there weren't many fade options by my standards, so I'm reaching a bit here, as Aberg notched four top-5s over his past five starts. I just don't think this is a great spot for him. Aberg played this event this past year, but that was on a different course, and although he appeared in the PGA Championship held here he missed the cut. A lot of players have a strong track record here, and Aberg is not one of them. --Greg Vara
Kim is having a great year and comes in off back-to-back top-5 finishes. He also posted a top-10 at Quail Hollow last year, so it seems like a great time to lock him in, right? I'm not so sure. He ranked second in SG: Putting here last year, and his lack of distance means the rest of his game has to be in elite to contend. It's certainly possible with how good his iron and around the green play are, but he's a streaky putter as-is. I'm eyeing Kim for the Memorial -- where he has a good track record -- or the Travelers. --Ryan Pohle
Don't be fooled. Straka won this tournament last year, but it was not held at Quail Hollow. He finished T8 here in 2024, but he missed the cut three of the four years prior and posted a T54 in the other instance. From a statistical perspective he has fared well here both off the tee and on the putting surfaces, but he has been well below average both on approach and around the greens. None of that adds up for me in a Signature Event. --Kevin O'Brien
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