Thursday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Washington vs. Minnesota

Thursday night's game between Washington and Minnesota isn't expected to be high-scoring, with the 41.5-point total one of the lowest of Week 8. Additionally, the game is expected to be pretty one-sided, as the Vikings are 16.5-point home favorites, the biggest spread in a week that currently has five double-digit favorites.

After scoring 27 and 21 in its opening two games, respectively, Washington has been dreadful offensively, combining for 42 points in their last five, including a 9-0 loss to San Francisco last week in a rain-soaked debacle of a football game. Meanwhile, the Vikings' offense has come alive, scoring at least 28 points in each of their last three games, including at least 38 in their last two, so there's really not much hesitation as why the spread is as big as it is or the total as low. Understandably, there will be plenty of Vikings stacks, though with their top offensive players expensive, fantasy players with one or only a handful of lineups will have to prioritize their attack.

QUARTERBACKS

Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins ($12,000 DK, $15,000 FD) began the season with four straight games of fewer than 235 yards while failing to throw for more than one touchdown in any of those starts. However, he completely turned it around starting in Week 5, and he comes into Thursday's game with three consecutive games with at least 305 passing yards and two touchdowns, including at least 330 and four TDs in each of his last two. The Washington defense hasn't actually been that bad statistically, including allowing just 151 passing yards and no touchdowns to the 49ers just last week. That being said, the weather made that one a total slop fest, while the Eagles, Cowboys, Bears and Patriots all had three passing touchdowns against them. Given the points the Vikings are expected to score, it wouldn't be surprising to see Cousins as a fairly popular captain/MVP, but he needs to spread around his throws to really make that work. 

Meanwhile, Case Keenum ($8,000 DK, $13,500 FD) faces a Minnesota defense that's just one spot behind Washington in terms of fantasy points allowed per game to quarterbacks this season, a defense that allowed over 300 yards and multiple touchdowns to the Falcons, Eagles and Lions while holding the Packers, Raiders, Bears and Giants to under 240 yards each. However, Keenum's been absolutely horrific lately, completing fewer than 55 percent of his passes and throwing for fewer than 80 yards in two of his last three starts, with the other a 166-yard, two-touchdown performance against the Dolphins. Granted, he's been dealing with a foot injury, but that certainly shouldn't make us feel any better about his chances Thursday night. Sure, you could make the case that Washington will be behind and he'll have to throw to get them back into it, but there's also a non-zero chance that if they are that far behind that he gets benched.

WIDE RECEIVERS & TIGHT ENDS

With Adam Thielen ruled out because of a hamstring injury, Stefon Diggs ($11,000 DK, $14,000 FD) figures to be extremely popular, as he comes in with more than 100 yards in three of his last four games, including a huge 167-yard, three-touchdown game against Philadelphia in Week 6. Thielen's absence will obviously open up opportunities for other receivers, but Diggs will certainly be the most popular, even at his high price. It also doesn't hurt that he already leads the team in targets (42), receptions (30), receiving yards (562), air yards (691) and aDOT (16.5). Bisi Johnson ($6,200 DK, $10,000 FD) is the biggest direct beneficiary of Thielen being out, as he's expected to start opposite Diggs after catching four of eight targets for 40 yards and a touchdown last week. He's now caught at least four passes in three of his last four, and his low price makes it easy to pair him with Diggs. Also moving up the depth chart is Laquon Treadwell ($3,800 DK, $5,000 FD), who has caught 100 percent of his...one target this season for 15 yards. He's only played 31 offensive snaps, but his elevation to the no. 3 wide receiver spot should have people looking at him as a salary saver.

Tight ends Irv Smith Jr. ($4,800 DK, $7,500 FD) and Kyle Rudolph ($5,400 DK, $8,500 FD) figure to get more opportunities as well, though they're pretty touchdown dependent to make any sort of impact, as they come in with pedestrian 7.9 and 5.1 aDOTs, respectively. Rudolph did score his first touchdown of the season just last week, so maybe it's Smith's turn?

Diggs figures to be a popular captain option for those who think Cousins focuses heavily on him, as receptions and receiving yards are more valuable than what Cousins gets on those connections, and given the prices of the other pass catchers, it's definitely possible to try and get the most active Vikings receivers and not Cousins, thinking if they all do well then we get more value than relying on Cousins and Diggs and not many others.

The Washington situation is somewhat similar in that they have one dominant pass catcher, though Terry McLaurin ($9,200 DK, $12,000 FD) didn't need an injury to the no. 1(a) to get there, leading the team in receptions (24), targets (40), receiving yards (419), air yards (613) and aDOT (15.3). The only difficulty with trying to roster McLaurin is that he's appropriately priced for his production, so you're giving up additional Vikings players if you pay up for him. That may not be a bad thing if you're paying down for a kicker and maybe Treadwell, but you'll need McLaurin to produce for it to pay off (duh). There are obviously other Washington receivers, like Paul Richardson ($7,500 DK, $6,500 FD) and Trey Quinn ($5,400 DK, $7,000 FD), but you're then using roster spots on a player who hasn't caught a pass on his five targets over the past two games (Richardson) or one who is still looking for his first game with 40 receiving yards (and had fewer than 20 in three straight before "exploding" for 30 last week). Rounding out the wide receivers are Steven Sims ($1,500 DK, $5,500 FD), who is questionable to play because of a toe injury, and Kelvin Harmon ($300 DK, $5,000 FD), who has caught all six of his targets for 57 yards this season. Sims is actually second on the team in rushing yards, which tells us more about the Washington backfield than Sims himself, as he's only racked up 82 yards, a majority of which came on a single 65-yard touchdown in Week 5 against New England. He also has impressively been targeted nine times and has minus-12 air yards and a minus-1.3 aDOT.

Then again, tight end Jeremy Sprinkle ($5,100 DK, $6,000 FD) comes in with two catches in each of his last three games, though he's still looking for his first game with 25 receiving yards. Honestly, other than McLaurin, what is there to get excited about from this team receiving yards trend?

RUNNING BACKS

Maybe we can get excited about the Washington running backs? Um, no. The Vikings have been much better against the run than pass, allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs on DraftKings and FanDuel. Top running back Adrian Peterson ($8,400 DK, $10,500 FD) is questionable because of a high-ankle sprain and low-ankle sprain, which allowed him to practice once this week, and he was limited. If he's unable to play against his former team, Wendell Smallwood ($1,800 DK, $5,000 FD) figures to get a ton of playing time, especially with Chris Thompson already ruled out because of a toe injury. Thompson was already one of Washington's best receivers, and his absence was going to give Smallwood some more opportunities anyway; add in that Peterson might miss out and we could have our highest-owned Washington player in Smallwood. It's not like they've been able to run a lot this season, as Peterson leads the team with 83 carries for 307 and one touchdown, and Thompson and Smallwood are the only other running backs to get carries this season who aren't on injured reserve. Captaining Smallwood on DraftKings at least opens up salary to spend on the flex spots, but his paths of success are limited.

The Vikings' backfield situation is completely different, as Dalvin Cook ($13,000 DK, $15,500 FD) has been one of the league's best, with a league-high 725 rushing yards and co-league-high eight rushing touchdowns. And if that's not enough, he's second among active Vikings for Thursday's game in receptions (24), targets (28) and receiving yards (220). With Minnesota expected to control the game comfortably, there's little reason to think Cook won't have a big game. The biggest thing potentially holding him back is the emergence of Alexander Mattison ($6,600 DK, $8,000 FD), who has rushed 55 times for 270 yards and one touchdown this season. If there's one thing pointing toward upside for Mattison it's that he has 12 red-zone carries this season, a pretty high number for a backup, and specifically one behind a player who has been as good as Cook. That being said, only one of his 12 carries in the red-zone have come from inside the five-yard line, and Cook has 12 of those among his 23 red-zone carries. You can try to make the case that Mattison could get some garbage time touches and maybe poach some opportunities from Cook, but it's really tough to see a situation where he actually outscores Cook, like we saw previously with players like Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams from the Packers, for example. Ameer Abdullah ($300 DK, $5,000 FD) and Mike Boone ($300 DK, $5,000 FD) are also expected to be active, though both will be hard pressed for enough snaps if Cook and Mattison stay healthy. Finally, fullback C.J. Ham ($600 DK, $5,000 FD) plays more snaps, but he's used almost exclusively as a blocker and shouldn't be relied upon for DFS players who don't submit dozens of lineups. Ultimately, Cook figures to be a popular captain/MVP option even at his price, but it's tough to argue that someone else has a higher floor.

KICKERS

The Vikings' Dan Bailey ($4,000 DK, $9,500 FD) isn't overly expensive for a kicker on DraftKings, and the lopsided nature of the game should keep him active. He comes in with at least six points in four of his last five games, though he's only attempted more than one field goal once in that span. His floor is decent versus the lower-end wide receivers and tight ends in his range, but his upside is always limited as a kicker. Meanwhile, Dustin Hopkins ($3,000 DK, $9,000 FD) hasn't scored more than five fantasy points since Week 1, and the low expectations for Washington's offense surely don't lend themselves for getting Hopkins multiple opportunities.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The Washington defense ($2,200 DK) figures to be pretty under-owned because the Vikings are expected to put plenty of points on the board, but after scoring at least 5.0 fantasy points in five straight games, there are worse places to go for exposure to the team, especially since a fluke play could lead to a touchdown, giving them much more upside than Hopkins. Then again, the Vikings defense ($6,800 DK) could be a popular selection given Washington's offensive struggles, and they surely make for a strong pay-down captain option, even without a touchdown this season and only eight sacks in the past three games combined. In fact, doing so allows you to roster Cook and the top receivers from Minnesota, so don't be surprised if there are plenty of people going that route and hoping for a blowout.