This article is part of our Showdown/Single Game DFS Breakdown series.
Tennessee will look to rebound following Sunday's disappointing loss to the Steelers when they blew a 10-point halftime lead and didn't score a point in the second half. Despite being ravaged by injuries to Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones, they are atop the AFC South at 9-5. San Francisco has won back-to-back games to improve to 8-6 and move into the No. 6 spot in the NFC. Thursday's matchup has playoff implications for each team and sees the 49ers as 3.5-point road favorites against the Titans in a game that features a 44-point total. Both teams have significant injury news. A.J. Brown is expected to return, which should give the Titans passing game a much needed boost.
For the 49ers, Elijah Mitchell is out and Jeff Wilson will get another start. His salary is too cheap for that role and he will be chalky as a result. One thing to keep in mind is that the NFL has been anything but predicable lately. Most of these single-game contests have been won with lineups that were either unique or close to it and it's resulted in six-figure scores. Above all else, it's important to look for ways to differentiate. Conventional lineup correlation has proven to be overrated. People willing to take the most risk have continuously been rewarded. Good Luck!
QUARTERBACKS
Ryan Tannehill ($10,000 DK, $15,000 FD) has understandably missed Brown, Henry and Jones. Despite rushing touchdowns in four of his last six games, he's failed to
Tennessee will look to rebound following Sunday's disappointing loss to the Steelers when they blew a 10-point halftime lead and didn't score a point in the second half. Despite being ravaged by injuries to Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones, they are atop the AFC South at 9-5. San Francisco has won back-to-back games to improve to 8-6 and move into the No. 6 spot in the NFC. Thursday's matchup has playoff implications for each team and sees the 49ers as 3.5-point road favorites against the Titans in a game that features a 44-point total. Both teams have significant injury news. A.J. Brown is expected to return, which should give the Titans passing game a much needed boost.
For the 49ers, Elijah Mitchell is out and Jeff Wilson will get another start. His salary is too cheap for that role and he will be chalky as a result. One thing to keep in mind is that the NFL has been anything but predicable lately. Most of these single-game contests have been won with lineups that were either unique or close to it and it's resulted in six-figure scores. Above all else, it's important to look for ways to differentiate. Conventional lineup correlation has proven to be overrated. People willing to take the most risk have continuously been rewarded. Good Luck!
QUARTERBACKS
Ryan Tannehill ($10,000 DK, $15,000 FD) has understandably missed Brown, Henry and Jones. Despite rushing touchdowns in four of his last six games, he's failed to reach 20 fantasy points in all of them. He's thrown for fewer than 200 yards in three straight. The expected return of Brown improves his prospects for Thursday's matchup against a 49ers defense that continues to struggle in the secondary and give up big plays in the passing game. It's a bit surprising to see him as the most expensive player on FanDuel, while on DraftKings, he's cheaper than Samuel, Kittle and Garoppolo. The return of Brown plus Tannehill's rushing upside would make him an appealing option in this spot, especially on DK where he's favorably priced. If Brown ends up missing, it would lower Tannehill's ceiling and lessen my interest. His viability in the captain/MVP spot also depends on Brown's status.
Jimmy Garoppolo ($10,400 DK, $14,000 FD) has looked improved after some early season struggles, throwing for 10 TD passes with three INTs in his last six games. He hasn't topped 300 passing yards in that span but he's thrown for 290-plus in two of his last three. Thursday's matchup against Tennessee looks to be a favorable spot as the Titans defense has allowed the league's eighth-most fantasy points to QBs and third-most to WRs. Garoppolo's low-frequency ceiling makes him a better option in the flex spot, for me. He's scored more than 20 fantasy points in just three of 13 games. I'd rather captain one of his pass-catchers, either Samuel, Kittle or Aiyuk.
WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS
A.J. Brown ($8,800 DK, $12,000 FD) hasn't played since Week 11 due to a chest injury but is expected to return Thursday, barring any setbacks. He's drawn at least nine targets in five of his last six games; expect him to see similar volume against a 49ers defense that's had its secondary exposed in recent weeks. We've already seen Brown go for 30-plus fantasy points twice this season. He has the highest ceiling of any Titan, and I plan to be overweight in both the flex and captain spots. Julio Jones ($6,800 DK, $10,000 FD) is a game-time decision as he continues to deal with a hamstring injury that's plagued him for most of the season. At this point, I'm done taking chances on Jones. Even if he starts, he can't be counted on to finish games. I'd also expect his target share to suffer considerably with Brown back healthy. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($5,400 DK, $7,500 FD) led Titans WRs in snaps and targets last week. Chester Rogers ($4,800 DK, $6,500 FD) caught all four of his targets after Jones left injured. Both players now have inflated salaries and neither projects well with Brown back in the fold. If Jones plays, I'd have no interest in either. If Jones sits, Westbrook-Ikhine likely will operate as the No. 2 WR. If I'm targeting a Tennessee WR besides Brown, it's probably Cody Hollister ($400 DK, $5,500 FD). He was second in WR snaps last week and has four catches on seven targets in three games this season. He's a viable option strictly based on his minimum salary and I'd only have interest if Jones is out.
Deebo Samuel ($11,600 DK, $14,500 FD) has six rushing TDs in his last five games and is averaging more than six carries per game in that span. It's a bit concerning that he's averaged less than four targets over that stretch, but some of that was down to his questionable health as he played through a groin injury. Now fully healthy, Samuel's dual-threat ability gives him considerable upside in any matchup but especially so against the Titans. Brandon Aiyuk ($8,000 DK, $10,000 FD) has played more than 90 percent of snaps in seven consecutive games. He's topped 18 fantasy points in three of those and makes for a nice pivot off of Samuel or Kittle. He's also a good option for the captain spot based on his cheaper salary and ceiling potential. Jauan Jennings ($5,000 DK, $7,500 FD) has clearly established himself as the No. 3 WR with six catches on 11 targets the last two weeks. His salary seems a bit high, though, and it's likely that he'll need a touchdown to be optimal. For that reason, I plan on being underweight. He makes for a good leverage option on DK because Jeff Wilson ($5,200) will be very popular for essentially the same salary.
The Titans continue to use three tight ends. Geoff Swaim ($3,200 DK, $7,000 FD) played 74 percent of the snaps in Sunday's loss to the Steelers while Anthony Firkser ($2,600, $7,000 FD) played 21 percent and MyCole Pruitt ($800 DK, $6,500 FD) played 34 percent. Any could catch a touchdown Thursday, and all are relatively cheap. They're viable options in large-field GPPs but I prefer the cheap RBs in that range.
George Kittle ($11,200 DK, $13,000 FD) has drawn 33 targets the last three weeks, and we've seen him put up two monster ceiling scores as a result. He has as much upside as any player on the slate and therefore makes for a good captain option with the 49ers in a favorable spot. I slightly prefer him over Samuel, but it's pretty much a toss up.
RUNNING BACKS
D'Onta Foreman ($7,600 DK, $11,500 FD) is coming off his best game of the season Sunday when he rushed 22 times for 108 yards and caught two passes for 27 yards. He only played 39 percent of snaps, but 24 touches is encouraging nonetheless. Dontrell Hilliard ($2,800 DK, $9,500 FD) and Jeremy McNichols ($2,200 DK, $8,000 FD) each saw significant playing time as the Titans used a three-RB committee for the second straight week. Hilliard had 13 touches for 59 yards while McNichols had nine for 51 yards. Both are relatively cheap and have pass-catching upside. They'd make most sense as running backs in 49ers-heavy builds that project the Titans playing from behind.
Elijah Mitchell is out, meaning Jeff Wilson ($5,200 DK, $11,000 FD) will get another start. Wilson had 21 carries for 110 yards and a TD last week. He even caught two passes for nine yards as he played a whopping 88 percent of the snaps, staying in on passing downs ahead of JaMycal Hasty. Wilson is priced much too cheap for that role on DraftKings and will be quite popular as a result. The cheap salary means that he'll be a popular captain as well, and rightly so. Those are good arguments to consider fading him, but it's too good of a spot for me to pass up with Mitchell out. I plan on being overweight in both the flex and captain spots.
KICKERS
The kickers are always viable in games with lower totals, though they don't stand out as much on this slate with Jeff Wilson ($5,200) priced right above them and various cheap options priced below that are worth taking a chance on. That said, Robbie Gould ($4,400 DK, $9,000 FD) and Randy Bullock ($4,200 DK, $8,500 FD) still might only need 10 points to be optimal. I prefer Gould based on the 49ers having a better offense and the fact that they're 3.5-point favorites.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
The 49ers ($3,800) defense has 12 sacks in the last three weeks. Although I tend to avoid D/ST, I can get behind rostering Nick Bosa and company, especially against Ryan Tannehill, who has thrown 14 INTs this season. I don't have nearly as much interest in the underdog Titans ($3,600), up against Garoppolo, who's limited mistakes lately. The argument in favor of rostering them is that they won't be popular.
