This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week wasn't as upset heavy as earlier weeks, though the Jets losing to the Broncos is still a brain-twister.
Bo Nix did not complete a pass beyond the line of scrimmage in the first half and finished the game with 60 yards on 25 attempts. His 2.4 YPA is the lowest by a winning QB with at least 25 attempts since 1965 when another Broncos quarterback, John McCormick, somehow passed for 20 yards on 28 attempts (0.7 YPA). That's what the Jets lost to. Good job, J-E-T-S.
In my pool, three participants were eliminated (one on the Jets). Of the original 442, only 17 remain.
On to Week 5.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEAHAWKS | Giants | 33.8% | 247.5 | 71.2% | 9.73 |
| 49ERS | Cardinals | 19.8% | 315 | 75.9% | 4.77 |
| COMMANDERS | Browns | 11.2% | 160 | 61.5% | 4.31 |
| BEARS | Panthers | 9.0% | 182.5 | 64.6% | 3.19 |
| CHIEFS | Saints | 6.5% | 205 | 67.2% | 2.13 |
| VIKINGS | Jets^ | 4.3% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 1.81 |
| Packers | RAMS | 4.2% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 1.54 |
| Ravens | BENGALS | 1.9% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.80 |
| JAGUARS | Colts | 1.9% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.80 |
| PATRIOTS | Dolphins | 1.4% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.67 |
| BRONCOS | Raiders | 1.3% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.55 |
| FALCONS | Buccaneers | 0.7% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.33 |
| Bills | TEXANS | 0.6% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.29 |
| STEELERS | Cowboys | 0.5% | 125 | 55.6% | 0.22 |
Home teams in CAPS
^
Last week wasn't as upset heavy as earlier weeks, though the Jets losing to the Broncos is still a brain-twister.
Bo Nix did not complete a pass beyond the line of scrimmage in the first half and finished the game with 60 yards on 25 attempts. His 2.4 YPA is the lowest by a winning QB with at least 25 attempts since 1965 when another Broncos quarterback, John McCormick, somehow passed for 20 yards on 28 attempts (0.7 YPA). That's what the Jets lost to. Good job, J-E-T-S.
In my pool, three participants were eliminated (one on the Jets). Of the original 442, only 17 remain.
On to Week 5.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEAHAWKS | Giants | 33.8% | 247.5 | 71.2% | 9.73 |
| 49ERS | Cardinals | 19.8% | 315 | 75.9% | 4.77 |
| COMMANDERS | Browns | 11.2% | 160 | 61.5% | 4.31 |
| BEARS | Panthers | 9.0% | 182.5 | 64.6% | 3.19 |
| CHIEFS | Saints | 6.5% | 205 | 67.2% | 2.13 |
| VIKINGS | Jets^ | 4.3% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 1.81 |
| Packers | RAMS | 4.2% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 1.54 |
| Ravens | BENGALS | 1.9% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.80 |
| JAGUARS | Colts | 1.9% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.80 |
| PATRIOTS | Dolphins | 1.4% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.67 |
| BRONCOS | Raiders | 1.3% | 137.5 | 57.9% | 0.55 |
| FALCONS | Buccaneers | 0.7% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.33 |
| Bills | TEXANS | 0.6% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.29 |
| STEELERS | Cowboys | 0.5% | 125 | 55.6% | 0.22 |
Home teams in CAPS
^ at London
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
A pot-odds play is not in the cards this week because the difference in popularity from the Seahawks to the 49ers isn't big enough. It's likely many Survivors have already used the 49ers, thus the relative lack of support this week. But taking the 49ers instead of the most-popular Seahawks isn't a bad idea. The 49ers have slightly better odds and a lower taken percentage. Working through the math gives us a risk ratio of 1.29 and a reward ratio of 1.28. So, it's basically even.
In any event, there are some good options this week for those who want to fade the Seahawks.
Picks below are in order of preference.
My Picks
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers got Deebo Samuel and George Kittle back last week, and though the latter is dealing with a rib injury, he's expected to play. Fred Warner could be out for the Niners, so that's a consideration. But the Cardinals haven't scored more than 14 points the last two weeks and defensively they can't stop anyone, allowing 26.5 points per game, 29th in the league. Advantage 49ers.
Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love returned last week for the Packers and had a huge fantasy day, though perhaps a little rusty at times. The rust sufficiently shaken off, he should wreck a Rams defense that is last in the league in YPA allowed at 9.1. The Rams, still without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, probably can't keep up.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks' defense was without five players among their front seven Monday against the Lions and then lost free safety Julian Love in the first half. And the Lions carved them up. The Giants, though, are not nearly explosive and could be without Malik Nabers, who is dealing with a concussion. But if Nabers plays — he's had extra time to recover from a concussion with the Giants playing last Thursday — and the Seahawks don't get healthy in a hurry, this game could be closer than some think.
Washington Commanders
The Browns are not good — their lone win came against Jacksonville. Deshaun Watson still hasn't topped 200 yards passing and has as many INTs as TDs. Washington at home seems like a pretty good bet.
Chicago Bears
Andy Dalton has given the Panthers a little juice, but this is still the Panthers. The Bears are mediocre but should at least scrape by at home.
NOTABLE OMISSION:
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are without Isiah Pacheco and now Rashee Rice. This was already an offense that had trouble ripping off chunk plays. The Saints have cooled since their hot start, but the potential is still there and bouncing back on Monday night wouldn't be shocking.
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