This article is part of our Survivor series.
The Browns and Saints won last week, which was good news for approximately 90 percent of Survivors. The Saints, though, made their backers sweat it out after taking a 17-17 tie into the fourth quarter. Atlanta's upset loss to the Vikings cost some people, but not many.
In my pool, only three entrants were eliminated — two on the Falcons, one on the Jets (of all teams). Of the original 414, 87 remain.
On to Week 10.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines, according to BetMGM. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COWBOYS | Giants | 46.0% | 1100 | 91.7% | 3.83 |
| BENGALS | Texans | 33.8% | 270 | 73.0% | 9.14 |
| BILLS | Broncos | 6.3% | 332.5 | 76.9% | 1.46 |
| STEELERS | Packers | 3.5% | 160 | 61.5% | 1.35 |
| BEARS | Panthers | 3.2% | 182.5 | 64.6% | 1.13 |
| SEAHAWKS | Commanders | 2.8% | 237.5 | 70.4% | 0.83 |
| RAVENS | Browns | 2.1% | 225 | 69.2% | 0.65 |
| Falcons | CARDINALS | 0.7% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.33 |
| Saints | VIKINGS | 0.2% | 125 | 55.6% | 0.09 |
| Colts | Patriots (at Frankfurt) | 0.2% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.10 |
| 49ers | JAGUARS | 0.2% | 147.5 | 59.6% | 0.08 |
| BUCCANEERS | Titans | 0.2% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.10 |
| Jets | RAIDERS | 0.1% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.05 |
| Lions | CHARGERS | 0.1% | 125 | 55.6% | 0.04 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
This week is sort of like last week in that there are two massively popular teams and
The Browns and Saints won last week, which was good news for approximately 90 percent of Survivors. The Saints, though, made their backers sweat it out after taking a 17-17 tie into the fourth quarter. Atlanta's upset loss to the Vikings cost some people, but not many.
In my pool, only three entrants were eliminated — two on the Falcons, one on the Jets (of all teams). Of the original 414, 87 remain.
On to Week 10.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines, according to BetMGM. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COWBOYS | Giants | 46.0% | 1100 | 91.7% | 3.83 |
| BENGALS | Texans | 33.8% | 270 | 73.0% | 9.14 |
| BILLS | Broncos | 6.3% | 332.5 | 76.9% | 1.46 |
| STEELERS | Packers | 3.5% | 160 | 61.5% | 1.35 |
| BEARS | Panthers | 3.2% | 182.5 | 64.6% | 1.13 |
| SEAHAWKS | Commanders | 2.8% | 237.5 | 70.4% | 0.83 |
| RAVENS | Browns | 2.1% | 225 | 69.2% | 0.65 |
| Falcons | CARDINALS | 0.7% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.33 |
| Saints | VIKINGS | 0.2% | 125 | 55.6% | 0.09 |
| Colts | Patriots (at Frankfurt) | 0.2% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.10 |
| 49ers | JAGUARS | 0.2% | 147.5 | 59.6% | 0.08 |
| BUCCANEERS | Titans | 0.2% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.10 |
| Jets | RAIDERS | 0.1% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.05 |
| Lions | CHARGERS | 0.1% | 125 | 55.6% | 0.04 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
This week is sort of like last week in that there are two massively popular teams and not much else. The Cowboys have 46 percent of the vote, which obviously would be higher if more pickers still had them available. The Bengals are next at nearly 34 percent.
Like last week, one could fade both in hopes of knocking out a sizable chunk of the pool if either team loses. But also like last week, none of the remaining options does much for me (with the possible exception of the Seahawks, but they're not available anyway). And as I've already used the Cowboys, the Bengals are my pick.
The Cowboys, by the way, are the biggest favorite at -1400/-16.5 since Week 14 last season when Dallas played Houston and was -1667/-17. In that one, the Cowboys trailed for 44:37 until they scored the game-winning TD with 41 seconds remaining. Maybe the Giants can use that as inspiration this week for those of us not on the Cowboys.
Picks below are in order of preference.
My Picks
Dallas Cowboys
This one could get ugly quickly. Third-string QB Tommy DeVito will start for New York because of injuries, but even if Daniel Jones was healthy, the Cowboys still would be an easy pick against the hapless Giants. Alas, we used the Cowboys in Week 2.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are playing their best ball of the season, winners of four in a row. The Texans have won four of six and the two losses in that span were each by two points. But the game is in Cincy and the Bengals are decidedly better than the also-rans the Texans have faced recently. The Bengals are one of three defenses with more interceptions than TD passes allowed and their 3.2 sacks per game since Week 3 ranks ninth, which should make things a little tougher for C.J. Stroud than he had last week against the Buccaneers. Coming off a big win against the Bills and with the Ravens on tap Week 11, it's possible the Bengals overlook the Texans. But this seems to be a safer Survivor option than those below.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks have underachieved most of the season (or maybe they're just not that good) and their homefield reputation is a bit embellished at this point (11-10 since 2021, 3-1 this year). But Washington is worse — its win Sunday against the Patriots was just its second in seven games — and after trading half its starting D-Line at the deadline (zero sacks last week), it probably can't take advantage of Seattle's gimpy and mediocre offensive line. Most, including Vegas, expect a bounce-back performance by the Seahawks after they got embarrassed at Baltimore last week, but a 6.5-point favorite seems a bit much, all things considered. All that matters for Survivor, of course, is they win, which they should.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are inconsistent and their offense is abysmal — only the New York teams and the Patriots average fewer points per game — but somehow they beat the Browns and Ravens. The Packers did not necessarily impress last week in a 20-3 win against the Rams and backup Brett Rypien, who was so bad he was waived Tuesday. The Packers scored two TDs on 12 drives. Pittsburgh's defense should carry the day, but the offense's impotence gives pause.
Buffalo Bills
It's hard to trust the Bills these days. Losers of three of their last five, they could easily be on a five-game losing streak. The win against the Giants was aided in no small part by the officials, and in the win against the Buccaneers two weeks ago, if Chris Godwin looks back for the Hail Mary like a normal person, who knows? The Broncos beat the Chiefs before last week's bye, but they still have much to prove before expecting them to win at Buffalo on Monday night. The Bills should win, but it's not slam-dunk Survivor pick.
Notable Omission:
Chicago Bears
Not sure if this really qualifies as notable, but for the three percent of Survivors who've picked the Bears ... maybe think again. It doesn't look like Justin Fields will be ready on a short week and Tyson Bagent (3/6 TD/INT, 5.7 YPA) has had a rough go of it. Not that the Panthers are good, but are they really so much worse than the Bears that you're willing to risk your Survivor pick? No thanks.
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