Surviving Week 1

Surviving Week 1

I used to dread writing the Week 1 Survivor column because it was so treacherous. Lose in Week 1, and you've lit your entry fee on fire, and what did you get for it? One week of misery watching your team lose without any enjoyment or payoff. But that was before I actually lost a few times in Week 1, and now I'm over it. Of course, you don't want to lose, and you will be understandably apoplectic if you do, but it's the risk you run. Teams are rarely more than 90 percent favorites, and this week, no one is above 80. Consider whether you'd get on an airplane with an 80 percent change of making it in real life Survivor! That's the situation this week. On the bright side it also means if you do make it to Week 2, chances are some of your fellow pool entrants will not. 

(For a full rundown of the underlying principles of Survivor play (and also the rules) you can click here and here.)

Before you go further, please click those links. I'll be drawing on concepts like "pot odds" and "pool equity" throughout the season, and they'll make more sense if you grasp the underlying framework.

Bottom line, the goal in Survivor is to pick one winner per week, but you can't use the same team twice. While the game is called "Survivor" it really should be called "Sole Survivor" because (and you'll understand better if you click the above links), surviving is only worthwhile when other people don't. Grasp that, and what you read in these pages will make a lot more sense. 

Okay, without further ado, let's take a look at the Week 1 slate:

Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com 
** Average of the two moneylines
*** Game in Jacksonville

There's nothing to see pot-odds-wise as the top team (49ers) are only 23.3 percent, and there are four teams above 10 percent. So I'm just going in the order of who I think is most likely to win. But even then, the top three are very close, and you might want to diversify if you have multiple entries. 

My Picks

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Cowboys have a puncher's chance against anyone, but they're missing a Pro Bowl offensive lineman, Dak Prescott hasn't played in nearly a year and missed most of the preseason, while the Bucs have one of the top defenses in the league and are playing at home. Moreover, the Cowboys defense was terrible last year, and the Bucs are loaded on offense too. I give the Buccaneers an 80 percent chance to win this game. 

2. Los Angeles Rams

The Rams upgraded significantly with Matthew Stafford at quarterback and already had one of the league's top defenses. They're playing at home and face the Andy Dalton-led Bears who have to travel to the west coast for a night game. The Bears are solid defensively, and Dalton is actually a decent upgrade over the quarterbacks from last year, but it will be tough-going against the Rams. I give the Rams a 79 percent chance to win this game.  

3. San Francisco 49ers

They should crush the Lions, but keep in mind it's an early-body-clock road game, and they have several key players who are getting their first return-from-injury action. I don't have much positive to say about the Lions except that their offensive line could be pretty good after they used the seventh overall pick on Penei Sewell. I give the 49ers a 78 percent chance to win this game. 

Notable Omissions:

Carolina Panthers -- They could improve this year, but so could the Jets. There's too much in flux, and it's better not to get cute trying to use up a team early. 

Jacksonville Jaguars -- I know a lot of people would love to get through and only use up the Jaguars, but this is a road game for a 1-15 team from last year. Trevor Lawrence should be a difference-maker, but it's his first-ever start.  

Baltimore Ravens -- The Raiders aren't the doormat Houston is, this is a Monday night road game, and the Ravens have some depth issues at receiver. 

Kansas City Chiefs -- The Browns are a playoff-caliber team with a better defense, and the Chiefs have to overcome the Super Bowl loser's hangover.