Run 'N' Shoot: NFC South Surprise

The NFL always has a ton of surprises, and this year is no different. What's been the biggest surprise so far? For me, it's the top teams atop the NFC South. Remember, this is the division that didn't have a winning team in 2014, yet the Panthers and Falcons are both 4-0. Are either of them any good?

I keep betting against the Falcons ... and keep getting it wrong. Maybe I've been too slow to adjust my mindset regarding their atrocious offensive line from 2014 ... that unit must be playing better for Devonta Freeman to keep posting three-TD games.

The one Falcon I've been on is Leonard Hankerson, who I've been playing in the Stopa Law Firm League (deep format) for a few weeks now, waiting for Sunday's breakout (6-103-1 on team-leading eight targets). As good as Julio Jones is, he can't be the only guy catching balls for Atlanta, and Roddy White is clearly done. Hankerson should be owned in most formats, and I'd gladly cut any 49ers receiver or an injured Steve Smith to do so.

As for the Panthers, Josh Norman is having a Defensive Player of the Year type of season. The offense has a bunch of non-stars, yet keeps finding a way to score points. Ted Ginn's two TDs on three targets Sunday were a bit lucky, but Ginn has been a focal point of the Panthers offense every week. I'd rather have Hankerson in fantasy, but Ginn is a bye-week fill-in based on matchups.

• Welcome to the NFL, Todd Gurley. Gurley's 19-146-0 line on Sunday -- and the way he looked doing it -- immediately makes him a top-15 fantasy back, maybe top 10.

I own Gurley nowhere, so I'm not drinking Kool-Aid. Just look around the NFL -- running back is such a wasteland. Who are the top 10 in fantasy? Jeremy Hill has been pretty bad all year, yet his nine carries for 40 yards Sunday probably make him an RB1 again because they were accompanied by three TDs on a suddenly terrific Bengals offense.

•Arian Foster is a RB1 now, too -- despite his Week 4 disappointment. Expect the Texans to start riding him, starting this Thursday night. The running back position being what it is, I'd try to buy there if I could.

• I'm convinced. Andy Reid does not like touchdowns.

• The question isn't whether the Broncos defense is the best in the NFL -- it is -- but whether that unit is on the same level as the offenses of the Patriots and Packers.

• I thought Tavon Austin could only be used in a GPP in a good matchup (at home/on turf), then he goes 6-98-2 on the grass in Arizona. What a maddening player -- too inconsistent to start regularly and impossible to predict his good games.

• What happened to Colin Kaepernick? Hard to believe he looks like this (0 TD, 5 INT the last two games) at age 27, just a few years removed from being five yards from winning the Super Bowl.

•Drew Brees' shoulder injury has relegated him to short throws, but with a favorable schedule upcoming (at Phi, Atl, at Ind, NYG, Ten), I'm not sure it matters. I'd consider his buy-low window to be closed.

• Pretty crazy how a missed FG at the end of regulation so drastically changed the fantasy outlook of C.J. Spiller, who now looks like the Saints only explosive player.

• Apparently, it doesn't matter how good J.J. Watt is; the other 10 Texans defenders are so bad that they're helping DeAndre Hopkins be on pace for 240 targets.

• Week 4 was a terribly disappointing performance by the Bills, but I'm not blaming Tyrod Taylor. I thought Taylor played OK, actually ... the Bills problems were a lack of speed on offense with LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins both out and 18 penalties, caused by an alarming lack of discipline. My biggest concern as a Bills fan is Rex Ryan not being bothered by the penalties, commenting postgame about the "fight" in his players. "Fight" is great, but it has to be joined with discipline.

• If the Dolphins don't fire Joe Philbin by Tuesday, I'll give away five Rotowire subscriptions. Follow me on Twitter, @MarkStopa, for details.

• Here's a quick look at some values I see on DraftKings for Week 5:

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers vs. Rams, $7,900: The Packers are much more explosive at home.

Philip Rivers vs. Steelers, $6,200: I'd like Rivers in this spot a lot more if Ben Roethlisberger were healthy, but even with Mike Vick under center, this game has shootout potential. Pittsburgh's defense is not good.

Sam Bradford vs. Saints: $6,000: Bradford's price didn't increase despite a solid Week 3 (270 yards, 9.6 YPA 3 TD, 0 INT) and a Week 4 matchup against the bad Saints defense.

Tyrod Taylor vs. Titans, $5,800: I expect a bounce-back game for the Bills against a subpar Titans defense, especially if Watkins and/or McCoy returns.

Running Back

Jamaal Charles vs. Bears, $7,800: This is a great matchup for Charles, obviously, and I like how it sets up after the Week 3 results (the Bears having won and the Chiefs having lost again). I'd be floored if Charles doesn't post 25 fantasy points this week.

Dion Lewis at Cowboys, $4,800: Lewis' worst game so far in 2015 was 16 points in Draft Kings' full PPR format. He should be a $6k player.

T.J. Yeldon at Bucs, $4,400: Quietly, Yeldon has been a three-down back for Jacksonville, getting virtually all of the running-back touches. He's coming off a 100-yard game and heading into a good matchup this week. Pencil him in for his first NFL touchdown this week.

Todd Gurley at Packers, $4,300: Umm, did Draft Kings management not watch Gurley's second half? I don't like the matchup, but geez.

Wide Receiver

Randall Cobb vs. Rams, $7,500: Green Bay operates at a different level at home. Aaron Rodgers and Eddie Lacy are cheaper than they should be, too.

Mike Evans vs. Jaguars, $6,100: Evans was an $8,000 player much of last season. A home matchup against the Jaguars, at this price, may remind everyone why.

Allen Hurns at Bucs, $4,500: Receivers who post 11-116-1 on 15 targets, heading into a matchup with the bad Bucs defense, shouldn't be this cheap.

Kamar Aiken vs. Browns, $3,800: With the injury situation in Baltimore what it is, particularly with Steve Smith, Aiken is probably the Ravens best receiver. Another line of 5-77-1 would be just fine at this price.

Tight End

Rob Gronkowski at Cowboys, $7,500:Julio Jones and Odell Beckham are over $9K. Gronk should be, too.

Owen Daniels at Raiders, $2,700: Every tight end who has faced the Raiders has gone off. Daniels hasn't done much this year, but this is a rock-bottom price, and he did go 5-28-1 on Sunday.