Run 'N' Shoot: Newton is MVP Favorite

As we enter Week 12, the best team in the NFL is ... (drumroll please) ... the Carolina Panthers! Not only is their record the best, but as Patriots offensive players fall one by one, they're the team I'd pick to win any game on a neutral field. You disagree? Who would you choose to beat them?

• After Carolina's Thanksgiving Day beatdown of the Cowboys and a near-shutout of Dez Bryant, Josh Norman has the DPOY Award all but sewn up. A month ago, I thought the Cam Newton MVP talk was silly, but he has to be the favorite to win at this point, particularly if the Panthers manage to go 16-0. I'd still bet against the unbeaten season, but who's going to beat them: New Orleans? Atlanta (twice)? The Giants? Tampa? Carolina's most likely obstacle is sewing up home field early and deciding to rest in Weeks 16 and/or 17.

• Denver-New England was arguably the 2015 Game of the Year. There are so many juicy takeaways here, but perhaps my favorite is the obvious difference in the Broncos' running game with Brock Osweiler under center. Obviously, his ability to stretch the field vertically has opened up running lanes. If I were a Denver fan, I'd revolt if Peyton played another game this year.

• Remember the RB splits in Denver with Peyton vs. Brock when you go to draft Todd Gurley in 2016. No matter how talented the back, it's hard to pile up yards when you're the only offensive threat.

• OK, OK, I hear you, Adrian Peterson. But you're still not in the league MVP discussion.

• After throwing just 10 TDs through the first nine games, Russell Wilson has eight TDs in the last two. Is Thomas Rawls really that big of a difference in the offense? Or has Seattle finally realized that its defense isn't good enough to win games and they have to open things up a bit more? Whatever the reason, the Seattle offensive players sure look more appealing for the fantasy playoffs (at Min, at Balt, Cle, Stl the next four weeks), even with Jimmy Graham out for the year.

• In the three games Sammy Watkins was targeted at least eight times, he has 20 catches, 326 yards and four TDs. His stats the other five games in which he's played? 11-140-1. Total. Watching Robert Woods (a 23-year old, second-round pick in his third NFL season) struggle the way he has in recent weeks (10-88-0 on 26 targets, 3.38 YPT, in four November games) makes Buffalo's inconsistent use of Watkins even more maddening.

• Andy Reid has almost preferred going with one workhorse running back in his years as a head coach. But what does he do once Charcandrick West gets healthy, now that Spencer Ware (19-114-1 on Sunday after 11-96-2 last week) looks so good? I sense a timeshare coming, with West getting more of the passing work and Ware as the goal-line option.

• How many years back do we have to go to find a backup quarterback who has saved a team's season the way Matt Hasselbeck has for the Colts?

• Remember that Week 7 game where the Dolphins raced to a 41-0 halftime lead over the Texans en route to a 44-26 shellacking? Since that game, Houston has gone 4-0, giving up just 35 points in the process, while Miami is 1-4 since with its lone win by one point over the Eagles.

• Chip Kelly, offensive genius.

•Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington both left Sunday's game with injuries. Keep an eye on both situations as the week unfolds, and go get David Johnson (all formats) if he's available. There's significant upside for whoever starts at running back in Arizona. At St. Louis isn't an ideal matchup this week, but Philly looms in Week 15.

• If someone told you before Sunday that Ben Roethlisberger would have 456 yards passing even though Antonio Brown managed just 6-51-0, how much would you have bet on a Martavis Bryant explosion? Martavis did get 13 targets with Richard Sherman shadowing Brown yet managed just 5-69-0 (albeit with a rushing TD), while Markus Wheaton parlayed his 13 targets into 9-201-1. As someone who sensed a shootout coming and stacked Ben with some combo of Antonio, Bryant and Heath Miller in 25 Millionaire Maker lineups on Draft Kings, the Wheaton explosion was, shall we say, less than ideal. Apparently, when it comes to DFS, you can be right yet still be way, way wrong.

• That's the perfect segue into this week's prices on DraftKings. Here's my early take:

Quarterback

Cam Newton at NO, $7,400: The Saints defense is like a police escort into the end zone (h/t Scott Pianowski). The only danger here is that the Saints won't score against the Panthers defense, limiting Cam's volume.

Blaine Gabbert at Chi, $5,000: Laugh. Go ahead. Get it out of the way. Now go look at Gabbert's box scores. Nothing great, but considering he was facing the Cardinals and Seahawks in Seattle the last two weeks, QB Ratings of 94.4 and 98.2 don't look so bad. The Niners' defense has been atrocious on the road this season, so at stone minimum salary, Gabbert has 25-point upside at what's sure to be miniscule ownership rates. In a week where I don't love many of the QB matchups, I'll have Gabbert in some GPPs.

Running Back

Jonathan Stewart at NO, $5,300: Other than perhaps Blount, below, I'm not sure there's a skill player more likely to have a two-TD game this week than Stewart against the Saints' awful defense.

LeGarrette Blount vs. Phi, $5,100: The Eagles are atrocious in every way. This is a perfect spot for the Patriots to bounce back after a loss. With the receiving corps banged up, it might have been a Blount game anyway, but this setup is absolutely ideal.

Shaun Draughn at Chi, $4,000: The Niners' offense obviously isn't good, and Draughn has yet to score a touchdown. But as a three-down back, Draughn is not game-flow dependent; that's why he's scored between 13.6 and 15.4 DK points the last three games. If he can produce that same output in a better matchup this week and finds the end zone, that's a winning formula.

Wide Receiver

Alshon Jeffery vs. SF, $6,900: Alshon has been a stud all year when healthy. With a long week to recover, expect him to exploit the Niners at a cost less than that of similarly talented receivers.

Brandon LaFell vs. Phi, $4,800: Someone for the Patriots is going to score this week. My bet is on LaFell, who suffered through a bad matchup on Sunday night but still saw nine targets. Nine more targets in this spot would make him a terrific value at just $4,800.

Vincent Jackson vs. Atl, $4,700: Since returning from a knee injury two weeks ago, Jackson has been targeted just one fewer time than Mike Evans. If Desmond Trufant is shadowing Evans this week, as I'd expect, Jackson is talented enough to smash value at this price.

Michael Floyd at STL, $3,800: Floyd was predictably quiet the first game after returning from his hamstring injury. Before that, though, he had developed a nice downfield rapport with Carson Palmer (7-113-2 and 4-106-1 the two games prior). Now healthy again, Floyd gets a Rams defense whose weakness, downfield pass defense, matches up nicely with Floyd's strength. Arizona may have too many weapons to trust Floyd in cash, but this is a terrific tournament play.

Devin Funchess $3,700, Ted Ginn Jr. $3,600 vs. NO: These guys are too risky for cash. In a GPP, though, one big play is all they need to make this price look cheap. Against the Saints, that's certainly possible.

Tight End

Greg Olsen vs. NO, $6,400: Are we tired of the Saints theme yet? Even if Olsen weren't facing New Orleans, I'd find him interesting this week. After all, while Olsen's price has remained steady in recent weeks, several similarly situated TEs have increased in price. Tyler Eifert is up to $5,800. Delanie Walker is now $5,700. Gary Barnidge and Jordan Reed are $5,300. Hence, Olsen might not appear more of a bargain, but he is when viewed in that light.

Travis Kelce at Oak, $4,700: Picking on Oakland at this position has worked more often than not in 2015. This week, Kelce is underpriced as other tight ends have increased in price. Consider him a solid option in cash and GPPs.

Scott Chandler vs. Phi, $2,500: Chandler saw a team-high 11 targets as the Patriots decimated receiving corps forced them to employ a lot of two-TE sets. Chandler is a great punt option this week, particularly if Rob Gronkowski is out.

Defense

Colts at Pitt, $2,200: Only if Ben Roethlisberger can't make it out of the concussion protocol this week.