ADP Analysis: OTA Overreactions Causing Price Surge at WR?

NFL offseason programs don't include live contact or tackling, which means most of the team drills aren't even at full speed, and yet there's never any shortage of news items that have a measurable impact on fantasy football ADPs.

Some of it is genuine news, like the completion of the A.J. Brown trade, or Chris Rodriguez undergoing foot surgery, or Alec Pierce revealing details about his ankle surgery. There are also interesting updates on playing-time rotations that might justify changes in NFL fantasy ADP — stuff like QBs Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders splitting first-team snaps throughout Cleveland's offseason program.

On the other hand, it's best not to put much stock, if any, into reports about who has performed well at these offseason practices. Reporters don't even have access to the majority of sessions, which means they're making judgments from some individual drills and maybe a few drives' worth of full-team snaps (at less than full speed, with no contact).

No matter what I think, it's inevitable that some of the camp rumors and puff pieces will impact how players are viewed by the broader public. This is true for every fantasy format, even dynasty, but we'll use best ball ADPs as the measure of valuation because they're readily available with a high volume of reliable, updated data. 

We'll compare ADPs from May 26 (the first day of OTAs for 12 teams) to those from June 22 (shortly after the last batch of mandatory minicamps) to see which players have moved up and down the ranks this summer. I also highly recommend John McKechnie's Best Ball ADP Comparison Tool; it allows you to see ADP movement dating back to April while comparing two players. If you just want to see changes from May to June, as discussed above, you can find all the data at the bottom of this article.

ADP Rising ⬆️

• WR Rashee Rice — May ADP 29.3 ➡️ June ADP 26.3

What Happened: We'll stick with the quick version here, not detailing previous legal issues. Rice's ADP nosedived back in mid-May when he was sentenced to 30 days in jail for a probation violation... shortly after undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery. There were concerns about an NFL suspension, and also worries about his rehab from the knee procedure in jail. His ADP has since rebounded some, following favorable mid-June reports on both his knee and the low likelihood of a suspension.

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What Should've Happened: This is a unique situation with no precedent. I figured the NFL would suspend Rice for violating probation, even if it was triggered by a positive THC test (something the league no longer suspends players for, though it does occasionally test them still). I was less worried about the rehabbing-in-jail aspect, although it's obviously not ideal to be having surgery in May anyway, even if it's only a minor procedure.

It was probably correct to drop Rice's ADP by a few rounds back in late May and even early June, but at this point it seems like he's dodged more bullets than Neo — at least as relates to September availability. His ADP likely will continue to rise up into the second round, especially if he's practicing at the start of training camp in late July. There is still some risk of a probation-related suspension, of course, not to mention the risk that his persistent off-field problems will continue in some other form. The current ADP (early Round 3) sounds fair; just count me out at whatever the price ends up jumping to in July/August.

• WR Zay Flowers — ADP 35.8 ➡️ 31.3

What Happened: Flowers (and others) expressed excitement about Declan Doyle's offense. Also, the Ravens still haven't signed any veteran pass catchers after losing TE Isaiah Likely, TE Charlie Kolar, FB Patrick Ricard and WR DeAndre Hopkins this offseason. The lack of secondary and tertiary talent points to an awful lot falling on the plates of Flowers and RB Derrick Henry.

What Should've Happened: I think the new ADP is closer to fair than the old one, but that's only because Flowers was slightly undervalued before, not because hype from OTAs merits a jump of four spots. The thing to watch out for here is a potential Stefon Diggs signing (unless I'm just saying that as a delusional Ravens fan).

• RB Bhayshul Tuten — ADP 60.0 ➡️ 52.8

What Happened: Fellow Jaguars running back Chris Rodriguez missed most of the offseason program while recovering from foot surgery. It's said to be minor, but the procedure was recent, which means there's at least some degree of doubt about Rodriguez's availability for the start of training camp.

What Should've Happened: The reaction here seems reasonable, though I'd still rather have Rodriguez than Tuten at cost. Both benefit with each passing day that doesn't feature the Jaguars making a move for a more experienced RB. Unless reports about Rodriguez's surgery were inaccurate, we're likely still headed for a three-way committee — one where LeQuint Allen's role on passing downs could be an annoyance to Tuten's managers even if Allen doesn't get many touches.

Others (ADP Rising)

• WR A.J. Brown — 24.8 ➡️ 19.1
• WR DeVonta Smith — 31.1 ➡️ 26.4
•  WR Rashee Rice — 29.3 ➡️ 26.9
•  WR Ladd McConkey — 39.4 ➡️ 34.7
• WR Emeka Egbuka — 40.0 ➡️ 37.8
• WR Luther Burden — 45.0 ➡️ 41.7
• WR Terry McLaurin — 47.9 ➡️ 43.1

There's a strong general trend of WR ADPs climbing in Rounds 3-4. Some of that may be due to favorable OTA reports and puff pieces leaning toward the passing game over the run game, but we also see stuff like Ladd McConkey rising by 4.8 picks despite missing part of the offseason program with a hamstring injury. 

There's been a lot of talk, especially in best-ball world, about how drafters are prioritizing RBs over WRs in the early rounds. I think we're now seeing some bounce back, at least after the top-20 picks, with people suddenly more eager to place bets on... uh, pretty much any WR breakout candidate besides Tetairoa McMillan (ADP 41.5)?

I wonder if this is partly the JSN effect, figuring that an efficiency-based WR breakout offers more ceiling than volume-based RB plays like Javonte Williams and Josh Jacobs. I'm not saying that's wrong, and I do like some of the guys in the group, but this might also be 2026's version of the infamous Search For The Next Puka, i.e., it's unwise to cast an overly wide net for the fish that may never come. If we're chasing the next JSN, we need to figure out who it might actually be, not universally boost all of the young wideouts who were early draft picks. Anyway...

• WR Brian Thomas — 67.3 ➡️ 62.0
• WR Parker Washington —70.8 ➡️ 66.0

At first, I thought the market's lack of confidence in Jacksonville's offense might be correcting. But, we don't really see that when looking at Trevor Lawrence's ADP (holding steady at the 7-8 turn) or the running backs' ADPs (Tuten's rise is offset by a major fall from the injured Rodriguez). Instead, it seems drafters are reacting to favorable reports out of Jacksonville practices, mostly fueled by fantasy-friendly beat reporter John Shipley. These are exactly the kind of reports that I ignore; consider it an unfortunate coincidence that I now have to pay a higher price for two of my favorite sixth-round picks. I believe in Liam Coen more than I believe in myself.

• WR Quentin Johnston — 91.5 ➡️ 77.5
• RB Kenneth Gainwell — 106.1 ➡️ 94.7
• RB Jonathon Brooks — 118.5 ➡️ 102.3
•  RB Rachaad White — 123.4 ➡️ 110.1 

In Brooks' case, I'll sort of buy into hype from unpadded practices. I don't really care if he looked good, but it does matter that the Panthers are already giving him a lot of first-team reps. Chuba Hubbard, for all his merits as a team leader and tough guy, might be the least talented incumbent starting RB in the NFL. I have no clue what Brooks is or isn't, and don't necessarily trust the knee to hold up after back-to-back ACL tears... but he's still cheap enough to make sense when we're looking for an RB amidst an ADP range dominated by other positions. 

I also have a strong feeling that Brooks' ADP isn't done rising this summer, so it might be a "now or never" situation if you're like me and want to add a few shares even though you aren't a true believer.

I'm less interested in the Rachaad White hype; he'll probably still be the passing-down guy in a committee backfield, playing alongside a dual-threat QB who is unlikely to provide a ton of check-down volume. White's ADP and Jacory Croskey-Merritt's (127.1) would make more sense if they were reversed. 

• RB Keaton Mitchell — 143.4 ➡️ 133.1
• WR Tre' Harris — 186.8 ➡️ 166.0
• WR Adonai Mitchell — 206.5 ➡️ 174.6

You may have noticed by now that members of the Chargers offense generally are getting more expensive. The interesting thing there is that I didn't even see that much hype during OTAs and minicamp; this more just feels like a delayed reaction to enthusiasm over the offense in general under Mike McDaniel. The value is being picked off the bone as we speak, but there's a lesson to be had for next offseason about moving on these things as soon as possible, even if it means some risk of overreacting.

Speaking of overreacting... Did you hear about Adonai Mitchell's awesome minicamp???

ADP Falling ⬇️

• RB De'Von Achane — ADP 13.8 ➡️ 17.1

What Happened: On May 27, two weeks after Achane had signed an extension, Dolphins coach Jeff Hafley revealed that the RB was recovering from shoulder surgery and would be limited during the offseason program. Achane sounded unconcerned and said he'll be fine for training camp, so I suspect some of what's happening here is just general anxiety about Miami's offense (and Achane's target volume while playing alongside dual-threat quarterback Malik Willis). 

What Should've Happened: Achane's ADP should've dropped to mid-Round 2, if not lower, back in March when the Dolphins signed Willis and failed to address other glaring weaknesses. Achane is an incredible player, but he's on arguably the worst roster in the league, and Year 1 of a rebuilding project probably won't yield the kind of workloads he got in 2025 when Mike McDaniel was trying to save his job auditioning for his next job. I know I'm not alone in these concerns, which means Achane's ADP won't necessarily rebound even if he's a full-go at the start of training camp.

• RB Bucky Irving — 48.7 ➡️ 56.0

What Happened: On May 13, the Bucs announced that Irving had undergone offseason shoulder surgery and might not be ready for the start of OTAs. His ADP dropped some, but it wasn't until two weeks later that panic set in — thanks mostly to Bucs coach Todd Bowles, who said on May 26 that Irving would be ready in "summer or fall." Irving's ADP continued to slide, with new teammate Kenneth Gainwell rising in the meantime, though Irving did manage limited participation in offseason practices.  

What Should've Happened: I'm not trying to toot my own horn when I say that Irving was near the top of my fade list at the start of the offseason, back when he came at a Round 3 price. His value has obviously taken a hit since then, but it does seem like we're now into territory (Rounds 5-6) where the risk and reward balance out. My concerns with Irving are more about general durability and workload than Week 1 availability.

• TE Harold Fannin — 92.1 ➡️ 106.1

What Happened: Fannin didn't participate in any of the spring practices that were open to media. Neither player nor team has said anything, but it's safe to assume some kind of injury. It sounds like he's expected back for training camp. The secondary factor here is general pessimism about Cleveland's offense (see the tweet below).

What Should've Happened: I hate analyzing injury situations when there's no real information, so the best I can do here is tell you that Fannin was a major target for me at his old ADP. He's still one of my top targets, now going a round later, which seems like a fair penalty for missing OTAs and minicamp with no real information available. Cleveland's offense will be awful, yes, but it could also have a lot of passing volume, and Fannin is a strong bet to rank among the TE leaders in target share.

Others (ADP Falling)

• TE Trey McBride — 24.0 ➡️ 25.9
• RB Jeremiyah Love — 22.9 ➡️ 25.5
• WR Malik Nabers — ADP 27.9 ➡️ 35.5
• WR Tetairoa McMillan — 37.8 ➡️ 41.5
• RB Josh Jacobs — 28.7 ➡️ 41.5
• RB Chuba Hubbard — 67.6 ➡️ 75.5
• WR Alec Pierce — 73.1 ➡️ 83.2
• RB Chris Rodriguez — 112.4 ➡️ 130.7
• RB Jonah Coleman — 153.7 ➡️ 164.5

WR Marvin Harrison (-2.5) and WR Michael Wilson (-7.7) joined McBride and Love in tumbling down the ADP ranks over the past month, even though there weren't many updates on Arizona's offense. I don't think people are too worried about Jacoby Brissett's contract situation; this seems more like a case of justified concern that there are a lot of guys competing for one ball in an offense that probably won't be good. I'd rather buy the dip on TE Trey McBride than the other Cardinals, even if it's a smaller dip.

The Data

The ADP data below comes from averaging numbers on Underdog (half PPR) and Drafters (full PPR).