Potential Cap Casualties: Who's Next After Dalvin Cook?

We've seen two big names released for financial/cap reasons since the conclusion of the NFL Draft, first DeAndre Hopkins and more recently Dalvin Cook. That might be the end of it in when it comes to high-profile "cap casualties", but there are two other star players whose release wouldn't totally shock me, plus a bunch of other guys in danger who are relevant for deep leagues and best ball.

The goal below, in addition to listing the players, is figuring out what their chances are of actually being released and then assessing what impact it might have on their fantasy value as well as that of would-be-former teammates. We'll go by position, sorting by degree of fantasy relevance within each position. Also, please know I'm not rooting for any of these guys to get released. Losing your job is no fun even if you're already rich (or so I hear).

QB Ryan Tannehill - Low Probability of Release

The Titans were the fourth team to draft a QB this spring, as many expected, but most thought it would happen somewhere around 10th overall rather than early in the second round. While Tannehill can't be considered completely safe given his $27 million non-guaranteed base salary on the heels of a down season, the Titans clearly have hopes of squeezing out another AFC South crown behind the duo of Tannehill and Derrick Henry.

In fact, the Titans recently hosted Hopkins for a visit, which would seem directly in contrast with the rebuilding scenario in which Tannehill is released. At this point, I can't see it happening unless Levis is Herculean throughout spring and summer... not an especially likely scenario. The combination of a run-first offense and Tannehill's huge drop-off in rushing stats last year means there's little fantasy upside — even if the Titans sign Hopkins — but there is a real chance the soon-to-be 35-year-old QB keeps his starting job for most/all of the season.

RB Joe Mixon - Medium Probability of Release

This one is messy. Mixon seems overpaid relative to what NFL teams are willing to give running backs, but the Bengals are a legit Super Bowl contender with little else at the position after losing Samaje Perine to Denver. Then there's Mixon's off-field issues, which might force Cincy's hand but also might put more pressure on the running back to accept a pay cut. Any scenario where Mixon is jettisoned should involve the Bengals signing another veteran, be it Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, Kareem Hunt or Leonard Fournette. 

Their current options behind Mixon are fifth-round rookie Chase Brown and two veterans with less than 400 combined offensive snaps between six combined NFL seasons (Trayveon Williams, Chris Evans). In terms of fantasy value, it's a massive blow for Mixon if he's cut, especially with the legal stuff hanging over his head. Who knows if he'd even get a shot to compete for a starting job with another team.

RB James Robinson - Low-to-Medium Probability of Release

Robinson's contract initially was reported as a "two-year, $8 million" deal. Turns out it's more like $4 million, plus incentives, and with none of the money guaranteed at signing. 

If he's the same player he was before the Achilles tear, Robinson will probably make the roster and then take a large chunk of snaps away from Rhamondre Stevenson. On the other hand, New England might release Robinson in August or early September if he looks a step slow for a second straight year.

Other potential factors here include the progress shown by second-year backs Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris, as well as New England's confidence in veterans J.J. Taylor and Ty Montgomery (there's not much reason for confidence there). Strong is probably the most interesting of the group given that he was a fourth-round pick last year, though Harris arguably was a better prospect before a disappointing, injury-plagued 2021 at South Carolina dropped him to Round 6 of the 2022 NFL Draft.

RB Cordarrelle Patterson - Medium-to-High Probability of Release

Patterson has one season remaining on his contract with a non-guaranteed base salary of $4.25 million. Normally, there'd be a zero chance of a team keeping him around at that number while also rostering a top-10 pick (Bijan Robinson) and 1,000-yard rusher (Tyler Allgeier) in the backfield.

Patterson, however, does have some chance to stay with the Falcons even without a pay cut, as few teams (if any) plan to run more this season and he also can help out on special teams. He returned only nine kickoffs last year while dealing with a knee injury, but one of them went for a TD and the other guy who returned kicks for Atlanta (Avery Williams) just suffered an ACL tear at OTAs.

For fantasy purposes, Patterson is probably more interesting on another team. He played well last year, topping 100 rushing yards in two of the first four weeks before his knee injury and ultimately averaging 4.8 YPC with eight TDs in 13 games. His weird career arc and rare athleticism mean Patterson isn't necessarily totally washed up. In fact, the guy we saw early last year was better than some of the guys projected to start at RB for other times this year. That's not to say we should expect a starting job if he lands elsewhere, but a significant role in a timeshare isn't out of the question. 

WR Amari Cooper - Low Probability of Release

Cooper had one of his better seasons last year, and there's no question the Browns are trying to win now. Still, it wouldn't shock me, given that he has non-guaranteed base salaries of $20 million for each of the final two seasons of his contract. Elijah Moore has been the subject of hype coming out of OTAs, and the Browns are rumored to have interest in Hopkins. I think they'll keep Cooper, but a trade or release at some point this summer would only be mildly surprising, not shocking.

WR Corey Davis - High Probability of Release

Davis has a non-guaranteed $10.5 million base salary for the third and final season of his contract, after injuries and atrocious QB play defined his first two years with the team. I don't think he's washed up yet, but he's not a great player either, and the Jets signed Allen Lazard, Mecole Hardman and Randall Cobb this offseason. I'm surprised they haven't released Davis yet. If it does happen, consider it good news for Lazard and Hardman. In terms of snaps, Hardman is probably the more relevant guy, but it could also help Lazard to not have another big receiver competing for targets.

WR Curtis Samuel - Low Probability of Release

Although coming off a nice rebound year, Samuel might not be worth $10.6 million in non-guaranteed compensation for the third and final year of his contract. That's a ton of money for a No. 3 receiver, though he is one of the better third bananas in the league and is on a team that lacks talent at tight end. In the event they do move on from Samuel, the Commanders would be left to lean heavily on WRs Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson and RB Antonio Gibson as their best weapons in the passing game.

WRs DeVante Parker & Kendrick Bourne - High Probability of Release

Parker and Bourne are in the final year of their respective contracts, with the former scheduled for $6.2 million in non-guaranteed compensation and the latter $5.5 million. Given how little they did last year, there's little chance both make it to Week 1 with the team. That's true even if the Patriots don't sign Hopkins. A Parker/Bourne release without a Hopkins signing might hint at confidence in 2022 second-round pick Tyquan Thornton, but mostly I'd say it's about the money/cap stuff. This won't necessarily happen soon; in Parker's case especially the Pats may want to see how he looks in practice before making any decisions. Bourne fell out of favor last year even when healthy, so his future with the team — if there is one — probably depends on accepting a pay cut.

WR Quez Watkins - Medium Probability of Release

Watkins is fast and has a knack for acrobatic catches, but he didn't do much last year and the No. 3 WR role isn't all that important in Philly's offense. He got enough playing time in his first three seasons to hit the proven performance escalator, which bumps his salary up to a non-guaranteed $2.7 million for the fourth and final season of his rookie contract. 

The Eagles should keep him, in my opinion, but there have been rumblings it's no sure thing ever since the team signed Olamide Zaccheaus to compete for that No. 3 role. Like Watkins, the former Falcon can be perfectly functional as a low-volume No. 3 who mostly uses his deep speed to keep defenses honest and clear out space for his more skilled teammates.

TE Hunter Henry - Low Probability of Release

This is less about the Mike Gesicki signing and more about Henry's subpar 2022 performance combined with his non-guaranteed $9.5 million base salary. The 28-year-old also has $1 million in per-game roster bonuses. The problem? New England doesn't have any other in-line tight ends with significant NFL experience (or potential). The others on the roster are either move TEs that can't block (Gesicki, Anthony Firkser) or undrafted young players with little-to-no experience. Man, there's a lot to sort through with this New England offense before Week 1 rolls around, even without the added complication of a new offensive coordinator.

TE Tyler Higbee - Low Probability of Release

Of everyone listed here, Higbee is least likely to be released. I only mention it because he's in the final year of his contract and the Rams may eventually realize it's delusional to make "one last run" with a handful of veterans and dozens of no-names. It'd be less delusional if so many of the veterans weren't so old and coming off injuries. If anything, Higbee makes more sense for a trade, as a $6.25 million base salary in the final year of his contract arguably makes him somewhat underpaid. Brycen Hopkins, Davis Allen and Hunter Long are behind him on the depth chart in L.A.

TE Logan Thomas - High Probability of Release

Thomas turns 32 in July, following an Achilles tear in 2021 and an ugly 2022 with 8.3 yards per catch and 5.3 per target. The Commanders don't have another experienced pass-catching TE behind him, but that might not matter given his non-guaranteed base salaries of $6.3 and $5.3 million for the final two years of his contract. Cole Turner is the best bet to handle obvious passing situations if the Commanders end up cutting Thomas.

Others Who Could Be at Risk

 RB Nyheim Hines

 RB Ty Montgomery

 WR Jamal Agnew

 WR Randall Cobb

 WR Tre'Quan Smith