NFL Week 3 Spreads and Key Line Movement

Written by

Updated on September 21, 2022 9:26AM EST

NFL Week 3 Betting Odds and Key Line Movement

The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it is a significant move that warrants attention.

Now that we have two weeks in the books), we have more injuries, but also the overreaction on 2-0 teams vs. 0-2 teams to consider. This is when line moves really become a factor in handicapping which way to bet. One of the trends we saw last week and continues this week is the number of low totals.

The average score in an NFL game last year was around 46 points and the average total was 47. In Week Three there are 10 games on the board with a posted total under 47. We are seeing about 43 points per game on average through Sunday. Oddsmakers have adjusted already and you need to do so accordingly.

The key here is figuring out what games will go under and what team totals will go under. If you are looking for picks for each game, check out our NFL Week 3 picks.

Sign up at Caesars Sportsbook using our Caesars Sportsbook promo code for your $1,250 First Bet on Caesars plus tier and reward credits.

Latest Odds For This Week in The NFL

For more, take a look at NFL Week 3 odds.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns (-3.5) O/U 39.5

Houston Texans @ Chicago Bears (-2.5) O/U 38.0

Las Vegas Raiders @ Tennessee Titans (-1.0) O/U 46.0

Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) @ Indianapolis Colts O/U 49.5

Buffalo Bills (-4.5) @ Miami Dolphins O/U 51.5

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-7.5) O/U 51.5

Baltimore Ravens (-3.0) @ New England Patriots O/U 44.0

Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) @ New York Jets O/U 43.5

Philadelphia Eagles (-4.0) @ Washington Commanders O/U 50.5

New Orleans Saints (-3.0) @ Carolina Panthers O/U 41.0

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Los Angeles Chargers (-7.0) O/U 48.0

Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) @ Arizona Cardinals O/U 51.0

Atlanta Falcons @ Seattle Seahawks (-1.0) O/U 42.5

Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.0) O/U 46.0

San Francisco 49ers @ Denver Broncos (-1.0) O/U 43.5

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (-3.0) O/U 40.0

NFL Week 3 Line Movement: Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts

This line has seen significant movement over the last two weeks as the Chiefs were -2.5 on September 11 and have moved to -6.5 road favorites. The Colts have probably fallen the most of any NFL team after the first two weeks. Between the Chiefs starting 2-0 and the Colts looking awful against the Texans and Jaguars, the 4-point line movement on the road feels about right.

I would watch this one very closely and if it hits the key number of -7, it will be hard to lay off the Colts. Also, the Chiefs will be a huge factor in 6-point teasers where you can get them at a basic pick 'em.

The total has also seen line movement from 52.0 down to 49.0 due to the Colts' poor offense. Another one to watch as if this continues to drop down to 48 or cross over and below. 48 is a key number for totals and could also end up being a factor in teasers.

New users can take advantage of the Fanduel promo code that nets a $1,000 no-sweat first bet.

NFL Week 3 Line Movement: Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders

The Eagles are one of the teams that have had the most steam leading up to Week 1 and it continued after their 38-35 road win against the Lions. They opened PICK and moved to -1.5 on August 21st. It moved to -3.0 on September 13th and now it is at -6.5 after the Eagles' statement win Monday night.

We have already seen the risk in taking divisional road favorites this year and that could be the case here where it has crossed over the key number of 3. The Eagles did not cover the -4 in Week 1 against the Lions.

NFL Week 3 Line Movement: Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Chargers

This is one of the more organic line moves of the year, as we have seen the Chargers go from -10.5 down to -7.0 after the Jaguars shut out the Colts 24-0. The Chargers won at home against the Raiders in Week 1, and played a close game at the Chiefs on Thursday night. I think this line move will end up helping bettors that want the Chargers. The Chargers will also be popular on 6-point teasers now.

The total has also dropped from 50.5 down to the key number of 48.

Use the BetMGM Bonus Code for a risk-free bet up to $1,000.

NFL Week 3 Line Movement: Dallas Cowboys Titans at New York Giants

I wrote about the Cowboys' line movement in Week Two being a significant overreaction and they ended up winning outright at +7.5 home underdogs. Every Cowboys game with Cooper Rush is going to have line movement from the summer.

What people failed to remember is the Cowboys can still play defense and with a full week of practice at home, teams tend to rise up. You also need to factor in the Super Bowl hangover. The Bengals and Rams are 1-3 straight up and 0-4 against the spread through the first two weeks.

This game opened Cowboys -3 and is now at Giants -3, so a full 6-point line move. An interesting part of the line move is it peaked at Cowboys -4 on September 11th and went to Giants -4 on September 13th. With the Cowboys' win, it has only been adjusted to -3. Much like last week, I still think this is an overreaction to the quarterback situation and I think the Cowboys are very live at +3 or even on the money line.

*Editor's note: The line has moved to Giants -2.5 as of Tuesday, Sept. 20

If you're looking to wager on the NFL this season, RotoWire has a full suite of betting pages and tools with everything you need from the latest NFL odds to weekly NFL picks along with a wide variety of NFL futures and NFL player futures. Be sure to use our page to see what's available across the country and in your state, along with the latest promo codes and sign-up bonuses. Make use of the best sports betting sites and NFL betting sites to get the most out of your NFL betting experience.

If you are looking for picks, check out our NFL picks, predictions, and best bets.