Trevor Williams

Williams made 30 starts for the Nationals last season, which was just the second time in the 31-year-old's career that he's reached that plateau. It looked like the right-hander was going to be at least passable for the first two months of the season when he held a 3.93 ERA, but a 5.15 FIP was the better indicator of his performance and, sure enough, his ERA climbed to 6.55 the rest of the way (which included a 12.51 ERA in September). Williams is owed $7 million in 2024 and the Nats aren't exactly teeming with starting pitcher options, so he'll probably begin the year in the rotation. However, the odds that he'll end the year still in the rotation wouldn't appear high.

Williams spent the past two years as a swingman for the Cubs and Mets, and he was a reliable option with a 3.21 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 84:23 K:BB across 89.2 innings during 2022. The right-hander landed a two-year deal with the Nationals and is poised to move back into the rotation, where he spent the first four seasons of his big-league career. Williams' 22.4 percent strikeout rate over the past two years is solid, albeit unexciting, and it's paired with a 6.9 percent walk rate. He'll turn 31 years old in April and is likely to maintain his low-90s fastball, and a return to the rotation shouldn't affect his arsenal too much given he doesn't heavily rely on his velocity. Williams' fantasy utility is limited, but he could have some value as a depth starter if he's able to replicate his 2022 numbers in a larger sample size.

Williams spent the year in the Pirates' rotation eating innings, albeit in an unappetizing manner. He was especially burned by the long ball, surrendering 15 homers in 55.1 innings. The righty tried adjusting his arsenal, throwing fewer 91-mph fastballs while upping his slider, curveball and changeup usage a bit. The results were uninspiring as in addition to gopheritis, Williams' 11.1 K-BB% was 21st lowest among pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched. Pittsburgh released Williams, and at press time, he's still looking for a new home. PNC Park significantly suppresses homers, so Williams will be hard-pressed to get that issue under control elsewhere. With volatile ratios and a low strikeout rate, Williams has minimal fantasy appeal. In today's landscape, the roster spot is better utilized on a dominant reliever.

Williams showed flashes of brilliance in 2018, but failed to make much of a fantasy impact in 2019, finishing the year with a 5.38 ERA and 1.41 WHIP around injuries. His struggles can be attributed in part to the juiced ball (27 home runs allowed, up from 15 in 2018). The right-hander found success in 2018 by limiting the amount of hard hits allowed, and even with the homer issues last year he was still better than average in terms of average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. His fastball velocity ticked up to 91.3 mph in 2019, which helped bring his swinging-strike rate up to 10.4%. With the MLB run environment impossible to predict, Williams is merely on the margins of fantasy relevance; his windows of efficiency proved unsustainable in a juiced-ball year. Williams will look to right the ship and his home park should help in that regard, but he's barely even in the glob until further notice.

Williams provided the most confounding success story of the 2018 season. During a nine-start run from July to early September (54.2 innings), Williams posted an incredible 0.66 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. He achieved those marks despite just a 34:17 K:BB over that stretch. It was a microcosm of his season as a whole; while Williams obviously wasn't that successful over the course of the full year, he still finished with great ratios despite an utter lack of dominance. Williams barely cracked 90 mph on average with his fastball, which he threw 70% of the time, and induced swinging strikes at a career-low 7.9% clip. So how on Earth did he do it? And is it sustainable? In short: by inducing a lot of manageable, playable contact, and no. His opponents' 85.6 mph average exit velocity was among the lowest in baseball, but without the other numbers in the underlying profile, there's simply not much to get excited about. Don't pay for last year's numbers.

Williams settled in as a back-end starter for the Pirates last season, providing an innings-eating option every fifth day. For those who were careful to use him as a home streamer, Williams returned plenty of value with good ratios at PNC Park (3.45 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) despite a very limited ability to induce whiffs. Away from Pittsburgh, his ERA was more than a run-and-a-half higher (4.96), but it's interesting to note that his ability to keep the ball in the park did not change much in more hitter-friendly parks. Looking forward, Williams should have an inside track to begin the year back in the Bucs' rotation. In order to stay there and to remain effective, he'll need to improve his changeup, as opposing hitters hit .328 with a .547 slugging percentage against that offering last season, and ideally, improve his walk rate as well, as there isn't much in his current arsenal that suggests a spike in strikeouts is on the horizon barring the addition of a new pitch or an increase in velocity.

Williams' postgame embrace with his dad following his first appearance (and win) was one of the more emotional scenes in baseball last year. The 25-year-old started in 19 of his 20 Triple-A games, going 9-6 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 110.1 innings. A 74:30 K:BB serves as a reminder he'll probably never be a big strikeout guy. For the Pirates, Williams fell off after his debut. He gave up 11 earned runs, 16 hits and four walks in 9.2 innings, striking out four. Based off his strong Triple-A showing and the fact he served as informal trade compensation when Miami hired away pitching guru Jim Benedict from Pittsburgh, Williams will likely receive ample opportunities to prove his worth as a serviceable innings-eater for the Bucs.

As a sinkerballer with the body to eat innings, there is more pitchability than stuff in Williams’ profile, but he still has a good enough repertoire to succeed at the back of a big league rotation. The 23-year-old righty has a solid four-pitch mix but has yet to showcase above average command in the upper levels of the minors. Williams posted a 4.00 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and a 88:36 K:BB over 117 innings at Double-A Jacksonville before earning a late-season promotion to Triple-A New Orleans where he made three solid starts. He was traded to the Pirates in the offseason -- a move that might lessen his chances of joining a big league rotation this summer, given the disparity of pitching depth between the two organizations. Look for the Pirates to use Williams as rotation depth in the second half of 2016.

A second-round selection in 2013, Williams totaled 144 innings pitched across two minor league levels, reaching Double-A for the final three starts of the season. It was another positive step for Williams, who does not come as highly regarded as many of the other prospect arms in the Marlins' system, as he continues put the results on tape. The right hander went 8-7 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.35 WHIP over 26 starts during the 2014 season, his first full season of professional ball. Though Williams is fairly hittable and has posted mediocre strikeout totals so far, he shows solid command and consistent effort. Williams should slot into the rotation at Double-A Jacksonville out of spring training as he continues to progress up the ladder.