NFL Waiver Wire: Week 3 Deep Dive

At Week 3, we're starting to get a better idea of playing time and usage trends. That makes it a bit easier to determine players who truly have the chance to enhance our fantasy rosters. As a result, I've tried to cut this list down yet still provide plenty of options to consider. As a reminder, any player covered in the traditional waiver wire column will not appear in this article.

Quarterback

Kirk Cousins vs. Seahawks (30 percent)

Cousins has taken advantage of two favorable matchups to head into Week 3 as QB10 in terms of points scored. He'll draw another positive game where he'll go more regularly to the air as Seattle figures to rack up points against the Vikings' defense.   

Derek Carr vs. Dolphins (35 percent)

Carr has produced 12 completions of 20 yards or more, a mark only Tom Brady has matched. Perhaps even more impressive is the fact those performances came against Baltimore and Pittsburgh, whose defenses have already stalled the likes of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Miami is yet another fairly stingy D, and the absence of Tua Tagovailoa could make this a slow-paced and low-scoring contest. At the same time, it's difficult to question what Carr has accomplished to this point.

Matt Ryan at Giants (35 percent)

Ryan has endured a tough start to the season, as has the entire Falcons offense. However, he'll draw what appears to be his best matchup against the Giants, who have allowed 287.5 passing yards and two passing touchdowns per game.

Teddy Bridgewater vs Jets (22 percent)

Bridgewater has been exceptionally efficient through two weeks in Denver, posting what would be a career-high 8.5 yards per attempt. The major problem with a matchup against the Jets is that the Broncos' defense will likely hold down scoring and allow Bridgewater to frequently hand off the ball.

Sam Darnold at Texans (eight percent)

Darnold has gotten no respect from fantasy managers for what has been a very strong start to his tenure in Carolina. He's jumped his yards per attempt to 8.0, with his previous career high being 6.9. Darnold has also thrown 35 or more passes in both contests, meaning he's offered both volume and efficiency. Game script might hold back a blowup performance form, but he should provide one of the safer floors among the players on this list.

Running Back

Latavius Murray at Lions (50 percent)

Ty'Son Williams operated as the lead back in Week 2, though Murray mixed in plenty to record nine carries. Murray isn't particularly exciting, but he especially carries some floor against the Lions.

Mark Ingram vs. Panthers (36 percent)

Ingram's low roster rate is a bit befuddling. He won't be confused with Christian McCaffrey, but he now has 40 carries through two weeks and remains the lead back in Houston. Carolina's run defense has been among the toughest in the league during the small sample this season.

J.D. McKissic at Bills (50 percent)

Despite seeing his snap share fall in Week 2, McKissic enjoyed a much better role with Washington as his routes run spiked from six to 17 from Week 1. He's far from a safe play, but the game script should favor a solid result.

Cordarrelle Patterson at Giants (44 percent)

There's a bit of panic about Mike Davis this week, but he remains firmly ahead of Patterson in terms of usage. Even so, Patterson has carved out a role for himself in the offense. It's hard to imagine him having a matchup-winning performance, but he also should at least offer some production. Despite very different skillsets from a fantasy value perspective, Patterson is similar to Murray.

Alexander Mattison vs. Seahawks (30 percent)

Picking up Mattison is solely based on the possibility Dalvin Cook will be out Sunday. Cook didn't practice Wednesday, but watch for his status the remainder of the week.

Kenneth Gainwell at Cowboys (29 percent)

Of all the players listed in this group, Gainwell has the most upside to pay dividends later in the year. He's hovered between eight and ten touches in two games, but remains the clear backup to Miles Sanders. It's difficult to imagine Gainwell becoming the lead without an injury to Sanders, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see his role slowly expand.

Ty Johnson at Broncos (six percent)

It appears Tevin Coleman is quickly becoming an afterthought in New York, as he played just seven snaps in Week 2. Michael Carter is the more attractive pickup, but don't sleep on Johnson. He matched Carter with 33 snaps and accumulated the same number of combined routes run and carries. The assumption should be that Carter takes over the backfield as the season progresses, but there should also be a few weeks where Johnson is usable.

Devonta Freeman at Lions (four percent)

Freeman only played 10 snaps in his first game with Baltimore, though he ran five routes and took two carries. Given that it was his first game, it wouldn't be surprising to see his role expand moving forward. However, it's more likely the expansion of Freeman's role makes no Ravens' backs usable rather than creating individual value for him.

Wide Receiver

Nelson Agholor vs. Saints (37 percent)

On the surface, it appears Agholor's workload declined in Week 2. His targets dipped from seven to three, with a corresponding drop in production. But Agholor still tied for the team lead in routes run. The Patriots may not have to really air things out against New Orleans, but there will be spots to do so in upcoming matchups against Tampa Bay, Dallas and the Chargers.

Elijah Moore at Broncos (32 percent)

Moore became much more involved in the Jets' offense in Week 2. Jamison Crowder's return and the team's overall offensive ineptitude remain concerns, but Moore is a good stash before other managers are ready to break out big bids.

Sammy Watkins at Lions (30 percent)

Watkins has remained very involved in the Ravens' offense through two weeks racking up 15 targets, but beware game script could lead to Baltimore running a large portion of its offense on the ground.

Tim Patrick vs. Jets (14 percent)

Courtland Sutton was the primary beneficiary of Jerry Jeudy's absence in Week 2, though targets will likely even out between he and Patrick in the coming weeks. Patrick was a common waiver wire pickup once Jeudy went down, but demand for him may have fallen after what could be perceived as a disappointing statistical output.

Emmanuel Sanders vs. Washington (22 percent)

After Stefon Diggs, the Bills hierarchy among its wide receiver corps remains relatively ambiguous. Sanders and Cole Beasley are clearly the second and third wideouts, though neither has consistently emerged. It's possible the two swap volume leaving neither reliable, but there's little harm speculating on Sanders potentially emerging.

A.J. Green and Christian Kirk at Jaguars (26 and 25 percent)

It's understandable that Rondale Moore has received hype throughout the first half of this week, but the reality to this point is the Cardinals have been content to rely on its veterans. Both Green and Kirk have remained consistent parts of the offense. Moore will likely continue to grow as the season goes on, but Green and Kirk could be decent short-term plays.

Quintez Cephus vs. Ravens (four percent)

Cephus is perhaps surprisingly one of my favorite pickups at the position this week. The Lions offer an ambiguous hierarchy among its receivers, though Tyrell Williams will be out and Kalif Raymond is also banged up. Through two outings, Cephus leads the team in aDOT (13.5) and air yards share.

Hunter Renfrow vs. Dolphins (eight percent)

Henry Ruggs stole the show in Week 2 with a 61-yard touchdown to give the Raiders a win. However, Renfrow has picked up 16 targets across the first two weeks. He's not a big-play threat (7.6 aDOT), but has proven capable of providing a solid PPR floor early on thanks to a solid 18 percent target share and 68.8 percent catch rate.

Donovan Peoples-Jones and Anthony Schwartz vs. Bears (two percent and one percent)

Jarvis Landry's absence will free up targets in Cleveland, particularly while it's unclear what Odell Beckham may be able to contribute. Current target shares within the team suggest the tight ends may become the centerpiece of the attack, but the situation is unknown and thus worth speculating on.

Dyami Brown at Bills (two percent)

Brown has been a disappointment from a production standpoint through two games in the absence of Curtis Samuel. A few data points suggest that could turn around considering he holds a 27.4 percent air yards share compared to 32.8 for Terry McLaurin. Brown also carries a 15.4 percent target share, which matches the marks of Logan Thomas and Adam Humphries. The pieces are falling in place, but the question is if can Brown put things together before Samuel returns to the field.

Quez Watkins at Cowboys (two percent)

Watkins sits behind both DeVonta Smith and Jalen Reagor in the Eagles' offense, but he should be on the radar after an impressive 91-yard reception in Week 2. He's more of a stash play to see if there will be any hint of him earning an increased role.

Cedrick Wilson vs. Eagles (one percent)

If both Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup are sidelined, Wilson could be a worthy play. As for using him this week, the Cowboys playing Monday hurts his cause because we may not know whether Cooper is healthy by the time it would be necessary to slot Wilson into a starting spot.

James Washington vs. Bengals (one percent)

If Diontae Johnson is sidelined, Washington should benefit. However, the Steelers may also be without Ben Roethlisberger. And even with Big Ben, the offense hasn't looked all that great.

Tight End

Evan Engram vs. Falcons (33 percent)

Engram has retaken the practice field this week, meaning a return could be coming against Atlanta. It's not 100 percent clear he'll be game-ready, so follow up on the news leading up to kickoff. The biggest issue facing Engram besides his health is the current target distribution in New York. Through two games, wide receivers have accounted for two-thirds of all targets. With Kyle Rudolph also likely to command a few targets, Engram may not offer the volume to be a worthy pickup candidate.

Cole Kmet at Browns (26 percent)

The good news for Kmet is that he's clearly moved ahead of Jimmy Graham as Chicago's top tight end. However, he's still managed inconsistent volume by commanding only one target in Week 2 compared to seven during the opener. It remains to be seen what the Bears' offense will look like with Justin Fields under center, but the near guarantee Kmet will be on the field is a better signal than many others at the position.

Pat Freiermuth vs. Bengals (five percent)

Freiermuth has wasted no time supplanting Eric Ebron as Pittsburgh's top tight end, as he logged more snaps, routes run and targets. His game actually matches up with Ben Roethlisberger's lack of arm strength, so he could be a tight end to roster later this season. Freiermuth is still flying relatively under the radar, but that won't be the case with one big performance.

Blake Jarwin and Dalton Schultz vs. Eagles (seven and three percent)

Jarwin and Schultz evenly split snaps, routes and targets, which has prevented either from being a strong fantasy option. But if both Michael Gallup and Amari Cooper are sidelined, there should be enough targets to go around for both. Either is likely to be a short-term solution, if they are a solution at all.

Tyler Conklin vs. Seahawks (three percent)

Conklin has been hurt by the emergence of K.J. Osborn, but has remained on the field and operated as the Vikings' primary pass-catching tight end. That's enough to keep an eye on him, but not to rush out to roster or start him in standard formats this week.