NFL Waiver Wire: Week 1 Deep Dive

We've hit one of the most exciting days of the sports calendar with the first day of a meaningful NFL game. As has been the case, the purpose of this article will be to supplement the primary Waiver Wire article that runs on Tuesday. We'll try to hit on a number of options in each, both functioning as streaming options for the week and also as a deeper watch list or stash candidates. This week, the focus will be on a number of backfields and wide receiver depth charts where roles aren't so clear - particularly for plenty of talented rookie wideouts. 

Quarterback

Kirk Cousins at Bengals – 24 percent

Cousins finished 12th in points per game at the quarterback position last season and has gotten little respect by often being left undrafted in standard leagues. While he won't compete among the elites at the position in 2021, he faces a strong Week 1 matchup against the Bengals – who will be without cornerback Trae Waynes. Cousins should be usable for several of Minnesota's games early in the season, as he also draws matchups against the likes of the Cardinals, Lions, Panthers and Cowboys by Week 8.  

Jimmy Garoppolo at Lions – 3 percent

The countdown is on for Garoppolo to lose his starting job, but he should have the chance to start the season strong. The Lions allowed 285 passing yards and 2.4 passing touchdowns per game last year (31st and last in the NFL, respectively) and they haven't upgraded their secondary in a major way.

Sam Darnold vs. Jets  – 6 percent

Unlike Cousins, Darnold hasn't earned his place on this list with past performance considering he's never reached 20 passing touchdowns in a season or surpassed 6.9 yards per attempt. However, he's a former third overall pick who is set to play under the most competent coaching staff of his career and will be surrounded by talents such as Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore and Robby Anderson. A Week 1 matchup against the Jets should give Darnold the chance to show what he can do, though there still shouldn't be a big need to risk starting him in traditional one-quarterback formats.   

Ben Roethlisberger at Bills – 35 percent

Given the way Roethlisberger closed 2020, it would be tempting to write him off as he enters his age-39 season. However, he has a wide-array of offensive weapons to work with highlighted by the return of his entire receiving corps and the draft-day addition of Najee Harris. Week 1 may not be the best time to start Roethlisberger, as the Bills have playmakers throughout the defense and the Steelers are breaking in a number of inexperienced members on the offensive line.

Tua Tagovailoa at Patriots – 51 percent

Speaking of pedigree and an improved contextual situation, Tagovailoa will operate in a revamped pass-catching corps to target. In particular, the team added deep threats Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle and that should help Tagovailoa push his pass attempts further down the field. Add in another year of experience for a young offensive line, and the second-year signal caller should be much more aggressive. It's worth noting that Fuller will be absent with a Week 1 suspension, but New England will be missing Stephon Gilmore to balance it out.

Matt Ryan vs. Eagles – 46 percent

Ryan went undrafted in many leagues for the first time in several seasons, and for good reason. His long-time favorite target Julio Jones has departed, leaving a large question mark regarding possible pass catchers. The Eagles also bolstered their secondary in the offseason, so the matchup may also not be as favorable as it initially appears.

Jameis Winston vs. Packers – 27 percent

The factors pointing towards shying away from Winston in Week 1 seemingly outnumber the factors in his favor. The Saints' skill-positions are depleted aside from Alvin Kamara in the backfield while Green Bay projects to have at least an average defense – with a very solid secondary – and Winston turned the ball over 39 times the last time he was a full-time starter in 2019. That's all without mentioning that while Winston beat out Taysom Hill for the starting role, the latter is likely to play an offensive role and it could come around the goal line. Despite all those negative signs, Winston topped 25 points four times in 2019 and also scored 24.

Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. Chargers – 24 percent

Fitzpatrick's underlying metrics don't particularly stand out heading into 2021, which makes some of the helium he received earlier in the offseason a bit puzzling. However, he enters the campaign as the clear leader and quarterback of the Washington Football Team, a position he hasn't found himself in for most of the teams where he's played. Fitzpatrick will also have the benefit of some strong offensive weapons in Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson and Logan Thomas and that projects to be better than his supporting cast in Miami during 2020 – even if Curtis Samuel is sidelined. As for Week 1 specifically, the Chargers project to be a middling defense and that means they aren't a matchup to avoid.

Mac Jones vs. Dolphins – 22 percent

It's likely getting too cute to rely on Jones and most rookies in their first pro game. However, he boasts plenty of traits that suggest he could start strong - including a 100th percentile college QBR and 97th percentile college YPA (both metrics via PlayerProfiler). Even so, Bill Belichick will likely scheme to make things easy on Jones early on, so volume and downfield shots may not be plentiful in this matchup.

Zach Wilson at Panthers – 16 percent

Much of the discussion about Jones can be applied to Wilson, though he doesn't offer the same college production. It also seems like a strong possibility the fantasy football community is overlooking Wilson in favor of other rookies such as Jones, Justin Fields and Trey Lance. While the Panthers defense is likely to improve, it's a relatively positive matchup for Wilson to begin his NFL career.   

Daniel Jones vs. Broncos – 12 percent

The Giants tried to give Jones everything he needs to succeed in the offense by adding Kenny Golladay in free agency and using a first-round selection on Kadarius Toney. However, Week 1 may not be the time where Jones has his best opportunity to show what he can do with the remade offense as the Giants start the season against one of the league's top projected secondaries.  

Running Back

Tevin Coleman at Panthers – 22 percent

Coleman is listed as the starting back on the Jets' initial depth chart. That's likely to change at some point during the season, but he has the chance to be a workhorse in Week 1. That's not a player who should be this freely available on the wire and it may be a case of fantasy managers letting ambiguity regarding Coleman's long-term role affect their short-term decision making. 

Tony Jones vs. Packers – 9 percent

Jones won't be displacing Alvin Kamara in Week 1 or anytime in the foreseeable future. But after Latavius Murray was cut, Jones' path to a role in the Saints offense was cleared. Speaking of Murray, he received double-digit carries in seven games last season even when Kamara was active. If Jones can carry over a similar role, he could be immediately usable in deeper formats.

Giovani Bernard vs. Cowboys – 21 percent

Bernard has gotten a lot of hype from the media and the Buccaneers' coaching staff throughout training camp. That hype appears to have come to fruition as Bernard has reportedly earned the pass-catching role out of the backfield. While most of his value projects to come in PPR formats, he jumps ahead of the likes of James White and J.D. McKissic based on the fact he could at least get some work on the ground and near the goal line.

J.D. McKissic vs. Chargers – 50 percent

McKissic could be a sneaky option as a floor play in PPR leagues as he racked up 80 catches last season and returns as the team's presumed second back behind Antonio Gibson. The danger here lies mainly in the fact Gibson could take a step forward in role and McKissic adds very little value in terms of rushing or touchdown equity.

James White vs. Dolphins – 47 percent

White maintains his familiar role of New England's pass-catching and change-of-pace back. Mac Jones winning the starting quarterback job has the potential to be a positive for White's production, based both on the idea Jones is less likely to scramble than Cam Newton and also he may regularly look to White as a short dump off option. Like McKissic, White is most valuable in PPR leagues with Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson projecting to get the majority of work on the ground and near the goal line.

Malcolm Brown at Patriots – 22 percent

The Dolphins' backfield remains ambiguous. Recent reports have confirmed the expectation that Myles Gaskin will serve as the team's lead back, though there's little evidence to suggest that. Even if Gaskin leads the backfield, Brown has found a niche across the last two seasons in a red-zone role, highlighted by 1.20 touches inside the 20 per game in 2019 and 1.31 in 2020. Brown lacks the upside of others on this list, but he may turn out to be one of the more usable options in Week 1.

Carlos Hyde at Texans – 16 percent

Fantasy managers may be too confident James Robinson is the guy in the Jaguars' backfield. Even if he is, Hyde is likely to get work against what projects to be a woeful Texans' defense. It's not exciting, but he may perform better than expected in standard formats.

Ty'Son Williams at Raiders - 22 percent

With two members of the Ravens' backfield already ruled out for the season, Williams has potentially experienced the biggest increase in role throughout training camp and preseason. While Gus Edwards will certainly lead the backfield, Williams should also earn plenty of carries in the team's opening contest. He'll offer the potential to be efficient with those touches based on both matchup and the Ravens' ability to move the ball on the ground.  

Wayne Gallman vs. Eagles – 6 percent

Gallman finds himself as the backup to Mike Davis in Atlanta. A reasonable projection would seemingly be a lesser version of the workload allocation of Kamara vs. Jones in New Orleans. This may not be the week to utilize Gallman hoping for a big play or touchdown as Philadelphia projects to have a strong run-stopping unit.

Rhamondre Stevenson vs. Dolphins – 20 percent

Damien Harris is the presumed starter, but Stevenson would be the backup for at least a two-down and goal-line role. He's not a particularly strong start in Week 1 due to his uncertain workload, but he's firmly on the watchlist.

Ty Johnson at Panthers – 5 percent

Johnson is reportedly pairing with Coleman in the Jets' backfield to work primarily as the team's pass-catching back. It's hard to see a lot of upside given his projected role, the depth chart at the position behind him and the Jets' projected offensive capabilities, but it's worth monitoring how the team will use him.

Wide Receiver

Nelson Agholor vs. Dolphins – 33 percent

Agholor emerged as something of a deep-threat specialist last year by logging 15 receptions of 20 yards or more and five at least 40 yards. That won't necessarily translate well early on with rookie Mac Jones, but Agholor's ability to produce a lot with relatively little volume keeps him on the radar.  

Parris Campbell vs. Seahawks – 39 percent

The absence of T.Y. Hilton should push Campbell into a definite role in three-receiver sets. His ability to stay healthy as he enters his third NFL season should certainly be questioned considering he's only managed to appear in nine games. However, Campbell flashed his ability ever so briefly in Week 1 last season with a six-reception, 71-yard performance while volume should once again be on his side in the opener.  

A.J. Green at Titans – 31 percent

Green appears to be on the downslope of his career, as he converted only 45.2 percent of his targets into receptions and averaged only 5.0 yards per target in 2020. However, he gets a change of scenery – something he's reportedly desired for quite some time – and should be second in line for targets behind only DeAndre Hopkins while Rondale Moore gets up to speed with the NFL. Tennessee is breaking in several new members of its secondary and are likely to focus the majority of their attention on Hopkins.

Russell Gage vs. Eagles – 34 percent

Gage has averaged just 10.2 yards per reception and scored five touchdowns on 127 career catches. That said, he doesn't have the most exciting fantasy profile but should consistently be on the field after the offseason departure of Julio Jones. Gage should be a near lock for 10 PPR points weekly, which isn't terrible production to lock into a flex spot.

Tre'Quan Smith vs. Packers – 5 percent

Marquez Callaway is the presumed top receiver in New Orleans, but Smith should still be in line for plenty of targets. Callaway will also likely draw the coverage of Jaire Alexander in Week 1, while Smith may face Kevin King in coverage. Last year, King allowed a 105.8 passer rating when targeted.

Randall Cobb at Saints - 31 percent

Cobb is listed behind Marquez Valdes-Scantling on Green Bay's depth chart, but presumably will play in the slot when they roll out three-receiver sets. Aaron Rodgers made it clear he wanted Cobb back, which is quite honestly enough to at least get him on the radar.

KJ Hamler at Giants – 2 percent

The common narrative is that Teddy Bridgewater winning the starting job in Denver is bad news for Courtland Sutton and Hamler - AKA the receivers who tend to work down the field. However, Bridgewater attempted passes of 20 yards or more on 11.2 percent of his attempts in 2020. That placed him within three tenths of a percentage point of Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert. He also averaged 16.2 yards per deep attempt to almost match Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson. Denver's offense should be more efficient with Bridgewater under center, which will only help Hamler.  

Emmanuel Sanders/Gabriel Davis vs. Steelers – 16 percent and 13 percent

Only Arizona played in four-receiver sets more regularly than Buffalo last season, so Sanders and Davis should be on the field plenty in Week 1 alongside Cole Beasley and Stefon Diggs. There may not be enough volume to go around for both Davis and Sanders to produce big games, but they'll be rostered throughout the season if Josh Allen locks into one as his preferred target over the other.

Josh Palmer vs. Washington Football Team – 3 percent

Palmer hasn't received as much hype as many of his rookie counterparts, but he may have one of the more solidified roles. The Chargers cut Tyron Johnson at the end of training camp, which has paved the path for Palmer to operate as the team's third receiver according to beat reports. That may not turn into Week 1 production, but he would vault into a big-time role to produce with any injury in the wide receiver corps ahead of him.

Elijah Moore at Panthers – 41 percent

Moore is one of the rookies who has received more hype than Palmer, though his role isn't necessarily any clearer. After rumors of Jamison Crowder departing throughout the offseason, he remains on the Jets' roster and occupies the slot role that Moore is projected to fill for much of the season. Less of a start in Week 1 situation, Moore's usage will be interesting to watch in the opener.

Terrace Marshall vs. Jets – 21 percent

Marshall represents the clear third receiver in Carolina after the offseason departure of Curtis Samuel. However, he won't simply step into Samuel's 97 targets from one year ago due to the return of Christian McCaffrey. It's possible Marshall immediately produces thanks to the plus matchup, but I'm most interested in seeing how Sam Darnold runs the offense and if there is enough pace to the offense to produce enough targets for Marshall to be a consistent fantasy factor.

Rondale Moore at Titans – 20 percent

Moore has been used as both a receiver and rusher in the preseason, an indication the team wants to get the ball in his hands. It's unclear whether that volume will turn into viable production right away, but the Titans are vulnerable given their secondary turnover and Moore offers the capability of taking any of his touches for big gains as indicated by his 96th percentile 40-yard dash speed, 96th percentile burst score, and 94th percentile agility score (via PlayerProfiler).

Nico Collins vs. Jaguars – 5 percent

It's hard to get excited about much in the Texans' offense. Tyrod Taylor is a suitable real-life quarterback, but has never excelled at lifting the fantasy value of his receivers. Like many of the younger players listed in this article, Collins also heads into Week 1 with an uncertain role competing with veterans like Brandin Cooks, Anthony Miller and Chris Conley.

Dyami Brown at Chargers – 1 percent

Curtis Samuel appears to be in danger of missing the Week 1 contest after leaving Wednesday's practice with an aggravation of the groin injury that has cost him significant time throughout training camp. Assuming Samuel is sidelined, Brown should step into the second outside receiver role. Even so, it's worth understanding that Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson and Logan Thomas are all likely to get targets ahead of Brown in the short-term.

Tight End

Jared Cook vs. Washington Football Team – 23 percent

The target distribution in LA should be relatively narrow with Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams followed by uncertainty. As a veteran, Cook should have the upper hand over Josh Palmer early in the season and is therefore a reasonable tight end streamer in all formats.  

Gerald Everett at Colts – 10 percent

Speaking of narrow distributions, Seattle has the chance to be one of the narrowest in the league with Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf and little else certain thereafter. Everett escaped being buried on the depth chart in LA for the first time in his career and instead offers the chance to fill the target void in Seattle.  

Anthony Firkser at Cardinals – 14 percent

We'll stick with the theme so far at the position for one more player as the Titans will feature both A.J. Brown and Julio Jones and not much else. The downside is that Firkser isn't likely to see a lot of work near the end zone considering he only gained one red-zone target in 2020 and will likely be prioritized behind Brown and Jones.

Blake Jarwin at Buccaneers – 2 percent

We'll shift gears here with the Cowboys having a pretty wide target distribution with one of the league's most explosive offenses. That isn't likely to show itself in a tough matchup Thursday night against Tampa Bay, which could actually make Jarwin a nice waiver target who isn't in high demand for a Week 2 matchup against the Chargers.   

Cole Kmet at Rams – 3 percent

Kmet could be in for a second-year leap as he appears positioned to overtake Jimmy Graham as the top tight end on the Bears' depth chart. For now, the ability to play Kmet in most league formats is limited this week by a tough matchup against the Rams' defense and with Andy Dalton under center.

Hayden Hurst vs. Eagles – 0 percent

Hurst is a player to monitor in deeper or tight end premium leagues rather than someone to be excited to play in Week 1. As was discussed in the case of Russell Gage, we don't know exactly how the Falcons will fill the role of Julio Jones. Noting Arthur Smith's past in Tennessee where he utilized a lot of two tight end sets could make Hurst a suitable streaming candidate in upcoming contests.