We're one step away from the Super Bowl, and sadly, the end of the 2025 NFL season. The good news is that there should be some quality football for the next few weeks, so it's time to enjoy it while we still can. I'll break down some of my favorite picks of the weekend, which happen to skew heavily to the AFC Championship Game, relying heavily on the data found at the links below. For those who want to make picks of their own, those three resources are a great place to start.
Pace + Pass Rate over Expectation - https://www.rotowire.com/football/pass-ratings.php
Individual player stats - https://www.rotowire.com/football/player-stats.php?view=receiving
Defense vs. Position - https://www.rotowire.com/football/defense-vs-pos.php?scoringtype=ppr
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Higher
Sam Darnold vs. LAR – higher than 235.5 passing yards
Darnold's health is a risk as he continues to work through an oblique injury, but there is seemingly no way he'll miss Sunday's game. From there, the question is whether to trust Darnold's recent sample of work or his prior matchups against the Rams when projecting this game. The former isn't particularly positive, though Darnold ended the week without an injury designation and even played fairly well in the divisional round despite his availability being in question. His raw numbers were unimpressive, but that was due to being limited to 17 pass attempts. In contrast, in two games against the Rams this season, Darnold attempted 44 and 34 passes. Anything close to a similar game script in the NFC Championship this season should lead to Darnold beating this projection.
Hunter Henry at DEN – higher than 43.5 receiving yards
Opposing tight ends have been the one skill-position group to find success against the Broncos. They allowed the seventh-most targets to the position during the regular season, and they allowed Dalton Kincaid to post six receptions for 83 yards and a touchdown in the divisional round. Henry has been a reliable target for Drake Maye all season, and that's unlikely to change in the team's biggest game of the campaign.
Drake Maye at DEN – higher than 31.5 rushing yards
Quarterbacks, in general, haven't fared well against Denver's standout secondary, but the defensive unit has been vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks across the second half of the season. Since Week 13, Marcus Mariota, Trey Lance and Josh Allen have all reached 55 rushing yards. While Maye isn't in that class as a rusher, he hasn't been afraid to get on the move in the postseason. His legs (10 rushes for 66 yards) played a big role in New England's offensive success against the Chargers in the wild-card round.
Pat Bryant vs. NE – higher than 33.5 receiving yards
Bryant took on a key role to close the regular season in Denver and things looked to be trending the same way in the divisional round. He was targeted on each of Bo Nix's first three pass attempts before suffering a concussion. There's plenty of unknowns with Stidham, but this is a very reasonable projection that doesn't require Bryant to have a role in the offense or performance that he hasn't previously.
Lower
Jarrett Stidham vs. NE – lower than 197.5 passing yards
Stidham is very likely to be a popular "lower than" selection due to his lack of track record in the NFL. That doesn't necessarily make him a lock to go lower than his projection, as he was able to move offenses fairly effectively during his brief opportunities to start in 2022 and 2023 by averaging 7.24 and 7.44 adjusted yards per attempt in those two seasons, respectively.
However, New England was able to fluster and stifle both Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud, so it's certainly reasonable to believe Stidham won't find much success.
RJ Harvey vs. NE – lower than 41.5 rushing yards
Harvey is getting a reprieve with J.K. Dobbins (knee) officially sidelined at least one more game, though he will likely cede some reps to Jaleel McLaughlin. The bigger concern is the combination of matchup and Harvey's own level of productivity. In two playoff games, the New England defense has allowed 61 rushing yards on 30 carries to opposing running backs. Meanwhile, Harvey has been inefficient for nearly the entire season. Notably, of the seven games in which he's shouldered double-digit carries, he's averaged under 3.5 yards per carry on five occasions.
DeMario Douglas at DEN - lower than 2.5 targets
Douglas hasn't been a big part of New England's game plan and has seen two or fewer targets in seven of his last 10 games. Mack Hollins appears poised to return from the Reserve/Injured list for Sunday's game, which would only further cut into Douglas' opportunities.
