NFL Odds: NFL Key Line Moves for Week 3

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

NFL Line Movement and Odds Changes for Week 3

The goal of this article is to look at the key line moves for the week and what they mean in terms of betting. Key numbers in the NFL to watch for are 3, 7, 6, 14, and 10. When a line crosses through one of these, it warrants significant attention. 

On the totals side, key numbers are - 41, 43, 37, 44, 51, 33, 47.  

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NFL Week 3 Odds

BYES: NONE

NFL Week 3 Schedule

• New England Patriots at New York Jets -6.5; O/U 38.5
• New York Giants at Cleveland Browns -6.0/-6.5; O/U 38.5
• Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts -1.0/-1.5; O/U 43.5
• Houston Texans -2.5 at Minnesota Vikings O/U 45.5-46.0 
• Philadelphia Eagles -1.5/-2.0 at New Orleans Saints O/U 48.5-49.5
  • Line has moved to Saints -2.5/-3.0
• Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5; O/U 35.5
• Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5/-7.0; O/U 39.5-40.0
• Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans -2.5/-3.0; O/U 36.5
• Carolina Panthers at Las Vegas Raiders -5.5; O/U 40.5-41.0 
• Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks -4.5 O/U 41.5 
• Detroit Lions -2.5/3.0 at Arizona Cardinals O/U 52.5 
• Baltimore Ravens -1.0/-1.5 at Dallas Cowboys O/U 48.5-49.5
• San Francisco 49ers -7.5 at Los Angeles Rams O/U 43.5
• Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 at Atlanta Falcons O/U 46.5
• Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills -4.5/-5.0 O/U 45.5
• Washington Commanders at Cincinnati Bengals -7.5 O/U 48.5

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NFL Week 3 Injury News

• QB 
  • Tua Tagovailoa, MIA - Concussion. Future is uncertain. 
  • Bryce Young, CAR - Benched.
  • Jordan Love, GB - Knee
  • Justin Herbert, LAC - Lower Leg (Q)
• RB
  • Joe Mixon, HOU - Ankle. Might miss this week. Keep an eye on.
  • Isiah Pacheco, KC - Broken fibula. IR for at least 4 weeks, likely longer
  • Tyjae Spears, TEN - Ankle 
  • Kenneth Walker, SEA - Oblique
  • Christian McCaffrey, SF - IR (Calf, Achilles)
  • Rachaad White, TB - Groin (Q)
• WR
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET - Leg contusion, cramping.
  • Cooper Kupp, LAR - Left ankle  expected to miss "an extended period of time"
  • Keenan Allen, CHI - Heel. 
  • A.J. Brown, PHI - Hamstring
  • Justin Jefferson, MIN - Thigh bruise/contusion
• TE
  • Taysom Hill, NO - Chest

NFL Week 3 Odds Observations

• Totals are dropping, and fast. Overall offense is down, passing yardage has declined, field goals are up. 
• 8 games with at least a 6 point line, and 7 games price within 3 points. The overreaction continues even more now that we have a 2 week sample. 
• 6 games with a total of 40 points or less; 4 games with a total of 48 or higher.

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NFL Week 3 Line Movement

Carolina Panthers at Las Vegas Raiders 

This line opened at Raiders -4.0 and initially moved up significantly, to -6.5, and then -7.0. The Raiders come in off an incredible comeback win on the road against the Ravens. The Panthers were easily the weakest team in football last year, and somehow look even worse in 2024. They have scored a total of 13 points in the first two games. The total bottomed out at 38.0 after opening at 43.0. And then it all changed again as the Panthers named Andy Dalton  the starting quarterback. The spread moved back down to Raiders -5.5, while the total lifted to 41.0. 

Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks

Key injuries to quarterbacks are usually the reason for big early season line moves, and unfortunately for the Dolphins, that happened here. Tua Tagovailoa suffered another concussion last Thursday night against the Bills, and his timetable to return is unknown. Skylar Thompson will start at quarterback for Miami and the switch has caused an 8 point line move from Dolphins -2.0 to Seahawks -6.0. It peaked at -6.5 before dropping to -5.5. 

We saw a similar huge adjustment play out in the Packers/Colts game as Green Bay won after an 8 point line move as Malik Willis replaced Jordan Love. This feels like another over aggressive adjustment, but you have to consider that the Dolphins must travel all the way to Seattle. They do have a mini-bye and if there is any coach that could gameplan this situation it is Mike McDaniel. 

,I think anything at +3.5 or higher on the Dolphins is worth grabbing. especially if Seattle is without Kenneth Walker. 

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams  

The Rams do not have a quarterback injury issue, but they have significant injuries that may cripple their offense. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are out, and the Rams still have issues on the offensive line. Steve Avila, Joe Noteboom, and Conor McDermott remain absent for the Rams.  

The Rams got blown out by the Cardinals, while the 49ers come off an embarrassing road loss to the Vikings. 

The 49ers opened -2.5 and it moved to -4.5 before Sunday's games. After the Kupp injury, the line went to -7.0 and then -7.5, crossing over the key number. Bettors will look at teasing the 49ers down in a big way, figuring the Rams have no chance to win the game. 

The total opened at  49.0 (which seems outrageous now) and has since steadily slipped to 45.5. I think this total still has room to drop even more. 

Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans

We often see the backup quarterback come in and play well for their first game, but then the bloom comes off the rose after that. The Packers have a great surrounding cast for Malik Willis and played well against the Colts. But the number moved way too far, with the Colts closing as favorites by more than a field goal on the road. 

Now the Titans are -2.5 or -3.0 against the Packers, after opening as 3.5 point underdogs. So we have a total adjustment of about 6 points again. The line move still feels like too much, but the Titans played the Jets very tough on Sunday and hung with the Bears in Week 1. The total has completely bottomed out from an opening number of 44.0 and is now at 36.5 which puts this at a 20-17 projected score.  

I would still look at playing on the Packers, even in the second week of Malik Willis starting in what looks like a low scoring game that might not even hit the 36.5.