NFL Fantasy Football Reactions: Week 4

Before the late afternoon slate of Sunday games started, nine of the 10 games were within one score in the fourth quarter. It was a wild day for fantasy, DFS and sports betting. Seemingly everyone was sweating the day's outcomes. That means the most fun part of my day is sharing my observations with everyone.

I'll always try to give actionable advice at the end of each reaction. In addition to the fantasy takes, hopefully, some of these observations can also give you some ideas if you're thinking about placing some Week 5 NFL bets. Let's look at the Sunday afternoon action. 

Sunday Takeaways

• The fantasy game of the day was the bonanza between the Seahawks and Lions. More than 90 points were scored! Once Seattle jumped out to a lead in the second quarter, the game became a steady diet of back-and-forth offense. Jamaal Williams continued his strong season while Rashaad Penny came on in the second half. Meanwhile, T.J. Hockenson erupted for 179 yards and two TDs. Eight players had huge fantasy days. Defense was clearly optional in this game. The biggest takeaway is that when you have fantasy players who are facing either of these defenses. Fire them up. There will be plenty of blow-up games against the squads. 
• Fantasy managers who checked the box score without watching the Texans game were extremely excited that Dameon Pierce went for 131 yards and a touchdown. Rightly so. But most of his production came on a 75-yard TD run on which he wasn't touched. And during much of the run, there weren't defenders within five yards of him. It was one of those rare perfectly blocked runs that the defense couldn't account for. Pierce looks like a nice player, but it's unlikely that he sees many massive plays like this throughout the season. He still should be viewed as a rock-solid RB2 with upside and he's a strong weekly starter.
• We've seen plenty of wide receivers do well with poor quarterback play. But there's a real problem in Atlanta. It's hard to imagine that Marcus Mariota will help his tight end reach his scoring ceiling. In three of four games, Drake London has seen significantly more targets than Kyle Pitts. Pitts has one game with more than 25 yards. For those who have him on their rosters, there may still be an opportunity to sell. Some fantasy managers are so enamored with his talent, and they'll always expect things to turn around. Throw out some offers to see if something can be recovered for what looks to be a season that is circling the drain.
• It's nearly impossible to draw any conclusions from the Buffalo-Baltimore game. The rain was intense. It was often blowing sideways. Neither team had reasonable success in the passing game. But both QBs used their legs to help their offenses. Before the weather became particularly nasty, J.K. Dobbins  had a strong start to the game. He had 17 touches, including four receptions. It may be time that we can view him as an RB2. Of course, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson will be just fine as high-end weekly options. 
• Saquon Barkley is having an amazing season. His 141 rushing yards against Chicago actually resulted in a mildly disappointing fantasy day for the superstar. Daniel Jones vultured a pair of touchdown runs, which kept Barkley scoreless. With only a pair of receptions, his 162 scrimmage yards resulted in 18 PPR points. It was actually his second-lowest fantasy performance of the season. Of course, fantasy managers will take that! But the great news is that he's showing an amazing floor to go with his sky-high ceiling. Unless his DFS price begins to match his production, he'll be difficult to keep out of weekly  DFS lineups.
• After being an excellent downfield option the last two games, Chris Olave showed the world what he's all about against the Vikings. With Michael Thomas sitting this one out, Olave was used all over the field. Even with Andy Dalton at QB, Olave showed he can win in every area of the field. The only thing that can limit him from having an elite ceiling is if Thomas gets healthy and commands a solid target share. But it's fair to say that Olave was a steal where he was drafted. He should be on his way to a top-30 WR finish.
• The season isn't going well for James Conner. Not only is he struggling with a lack of good offensive line blocking, but he's also splitting work with Eno Benjamin and even Darrel Williams. With Arizona not getting the ball consistently in the red zone, the TD opportunities that were there last year seemed to be drying up. Conner is functioning as a low-end RB2.  The Arizona offense will have to make a significant turnaround to provide Conner another chance at fantasy success. 
• Miles Sanders might be here to stay as a high-end fantasy option. After carrying 27 times against the Jaguars, he's posted at least 15 rushing attempts in each of his last three games. And while he had one somewhat disappointing rushing performance in week 3, he's had at least 86 yards in every other game. He's seeing work in the red zone and in the passing game. At this point, there's likely no scenario in which he should be benched. With an outstanding offensive line, an extremely mobile quarterback and major weapons in the passing game, no defense will ever be able to focus on him. 
• It appears that Justin Herbert is doing much better after suffering a rib injury in Week 2. He certainly had an easier matchup in Week 4 than he had last week, but it was good to see him dominate. In a game the Chargers led most of the way, he didn't have to be hyper aggressive as a passer. But he still threw for 342 yards and two touchdowns. Hopefully, he gets Keenan Allen back next week. Even though the offense is probably too conservative, Herbert has proven that he's an elite QB. He may not have the upside of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, but he should be the next best thing most weeks. Fantasy managers can expect him to have a high weekly floor. Especially, since the L.A. rushing attack has not been strong. 
• In Week 1, fantasy managers were rightly concerned that CeeDee Lamb was set up to have a terrible fantasy season. Once Dak Prescott was knocked out of the game, it appeared as if he would miss nearly two months. He may return to action in Week 5. While Prescott was out, Lamb was extremely productive with Cooper Rush. And the Dallas pass-blocking has ended up being better than expected. There's no rational reason to expect that Lamb won't be a top-10 WR the rest of the way. He should continue to see ridiculous volume. He's also extremely talented. 
• Breece Hall is quickly working his way into becoming a strong weekly fantasy option. He followed up last week's 14-touch performance with 19 touches. Michael Carter had just 11 touches in this game. Hall was also busy in the red zone, scoring the game-winning TD. Carter's definitely not going away. But it appears as if there's becoming a clear separation in opportunity between the two. Hall's beginning to look like a strong RB2 and Carter's beginning to look like more of a flex option. 
• Kenny Pickett might not yet be much of a fantasy option. But it's possible that the Steelers passing game gets a boost in potential fantasy production. George Pickens posted more than 100 yards and Pat Freiermuth posted 85 yards. But the same can't be said for Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool. The duo posted just 11 yards. With a full week of practice as a starter, it's possible that Pittsburgh will install a more aggressive passing attack. If that's the case, optimism should be on the rise for the offense. However, the one player who could be hurt is Johnson. He's used to seeing a ridiculous target share. But if the offense opens up, it could easily be at his expense. Pickens may be worth adding to rosters in leagues he's on waivers. He's massively talented and just needs the football thrown his way.
• Simply stated, the Jaguars ran into a buzz saw. The Eagles defense was running hot, and even though the Jaguars jumped out to a 14-point lead in the first quarter, they ended up producing little offense. Although this won't likely be an elite fantasy unit, this game should just be considered a blip on the radar. Trevor Lawrence has shown definite signs of becoming an outstanding QB. And Christian Kirk has been a strong performer before this week. Kirk was actually shut out until the last few minutes of the game, so his box score actually looked decent. Kirk should remain a top-25 WR option. James Robinson should continue to be a top-15 RB. Meanwhile, Lawrence is an auto start in leagues that start two QBs, and he's a strong streaming option in other leagues. 
• Justin Jefferson was coming off a pair of games in which he averaged 31 yards. Fantasy managers were clearly frustrated. Of course, the receiver dominated Week 1 with 184 yards and two touchdowns. Through four weeks, we've learned that he may have more volatility than we imagined. In DFS, he may be a week-to-week proposition. But obviously there's nothing to worry about in season-long leagues. 
• After a slow start to the season, David Njoku has gotten hot. With at least seven targets and 73 yards in his last two games, he's a regular starting option in 12-team leagues. His presence in the middle of the field seems to work extremely well with Jacoby Brissett. He'll certainly have a few slow games this season. But his athleticism and ability in the middle of the field is undeniable. 
• We had a Darnell Mooney sighting. The good news is that he caught a 56-yard pass and ended up with 94 yards. The bad news is that Justin Fields only threw 21 passes, and while Mooney led the team in targets, five targets is difficult to make him a strong weekly option. However, the Giants seemed to realize that the Bears had no intentions of throwing the ball. They put extra bodies up front to stop the run. That allowed some opportunities in the passing game. If defenses take that approach, it's possible that Mooney can carve out WR3 numbers. And for those who have yet to do so, Cole Kmet is a clear candidate to drop to waivers.
• So apparently, Pete Carroll has decided to "let Geno cook." Geno Smith has multiple TD passes in three of four games. He's also thrown for more than 300 yards in consecutive games. That said, his two big performances have come against the Falcons and the Lions. Despite the excellent performances, he remains outside the top-18 QBs in fantasy in most matchups.
• Carson Wentz started the season with two excellent fantasy performances. But when facing the excellent pass rushes of the Eagles and Cowboys, he came crashing back to earth. He has one TD while averaging fewer than 200 yards in those games. Terry McLaurin had come into this week's game posting at least 58 yards in each contest. He ended up with just 15 yards against the Cowboys. However, he had a great opportunity for big production. The problem was that Trevon Diggs played an amazing game by breaking up three passes and intercepting another. It was one of the better defensive performances we've seen this season. McLaurin should remain a high floor weekly fantasy option. 
• Aside from Christian McCaffrey, it appears as if the Panthers offense is going to be a fantasy wasteland this year. Given an outstanding matchup against the Cardinals defense that struggles to cover or rush the passer, they were unable to sustain consistent offense. Aside from possible flex value from DJ Moore, it'll be difficult to count on him for much more. McCaffrey may not have the upside he's had in years past, but he's at least shown a consistent scoring floor. it's unlikely he'll earn his salary in weekly DFS GPPs. 

Injuries

• Jonathan Taylor is undergoing further testing for a potential high-ankle sprain. The Colts have a Week 5 game on Thursday against the Broncos. If the testing confirms the injury, it's extremely unlikely we'll see Taylor in Week 5 The Colts only have Nyheim Hines and Deon Jackson as RBs on the roster. And it's unlikely that Hines would be used in a heavily featured role. So Jackson may be worth a waiver claim, especially as many fantasy managers need any RB they can find.
• Javonte Williams was evaluated for a knee injury and ruled out against Las Vegas. Should he miss time, Melvin Gordon likely would take the lead with Mike Boone serving in a change-of-pace role. Boone is an explosive runner who likely would have strong fantasy value as a flex option while Gordon would be a strong RB2 with upside. 
• Jahan Dotson suffered a hamstring injury late in the game against the Cowboys. The severity of the injury is unknown.
• Isaiah McKenzie suffered a head injury and didn't return against the Ravens. Jamison Crowder also broke his ankle. With Crowder out for the foreseeable future, Khalil Shakir should see targets. And if McKenzie misses time as well, Shakir may be a nice option in Week 5.
• Noah Brown injured his neck and didn't return against the Commanders. With Michael Gallup likely set to get an increasing snap share week to week, Brown might have already been in the process of losing snaps. 
• Justice Hill did not return after a leg injury. If he misses time, it's possible that Kenyan Drake would resume a backup role to J.K. Dobbins. Drake would potentially have flex-level value in that role. 
• Brian Hoyer suffered a head injury and was ruled out against the Packers. Bailey Zappe took over. If Hoyer and Mac Jones (ankle) remain out, Zappe could serve as an emergency option in leagues that start two QBs.