This article is part of our Fantasy Football Draft Strategy series.
Monday saw my entry into the $250K grand prize, 12-team PPR contest otherwise known as the NFFC RotoWire Online Championship. Other than passing touchdowns rewarding six points, the scoring format is a relatively standard full-point PPR. The NFFC allows you the ability to order your preferred draft slot, and for a second consecutive year I landed in one of my least desired areas, this time slotting in at seventh overall -- the third lowest in my pick order. Hopefully that's not a bad omen in relation to last year, which saw one of my worst finishes in NFFC contests thanks to bad injury luck.
Here's the results of my draft. There are still 2,700 total spots remaining in this contest, so if you're interested in competing for the overall top prize, make sure to check out the NFFC.
1.7 - Tyreek Hill
Unlike last year when the top half of the board was chalk, I was at least fortunate to see a change to the typical order. The inclusion of Amon-Ra St. Brown, and to a lesser extent, Bijan Robinson, among the top five allowed me to avoid picking between Cooper Kupp and Nick Chubb (who I would have ultimately selected). At the time it was a pretty easy call to go with Hill at 1.7, and truth be told I never really gave Austin Ekeler much of a thought even in this full-point PPR format. I wish I would have thought it through more carefully...
2.6 - Patrick Mahomes
Listeners of my work on SiriusXM and the RotoWire Fantasy Football podcast know I've been adamant about getting a top-tier QB this season. It's likely going to be my defining fantasy trait this draft cycle. That being said, I did not envision taking a quarterback this early. I'm just not completely sold on any of the players selected in this ADP range. There's too many names in the ADP 15-22 tier that already feel like they have the upside scenario priced into their value, save for Jaylen Waddle. I almost instinctively made the pick before I stopped to consider the sheer absurdity of having two of my top picks belonging on the same team and same position. People stack offenses all the time, especially in the NFFC, but this felt like a level above that type of process, and it was a limb I definitely didn't want to climb out on. In hindsight, I would have much preferred an Ekeler/Waddle start than the non-Chiefs Hill/Mahomes lineup that I ended up going with, and I felt like I was drafting on my backfoot in an effort to correct the lineup issues that an 18th overall quarterback presents.
3.6 - Najee Harris
I felt reasonably confident my preferred third-round choice, Calvin Ridley, would be available on the third-round reversal, but these types of drafts rarely let hyped players settle at their normal ADP. Knowing NFFC players typically take wideouts higher, I wanted to zig a bit while others would potentially zag, so I grabbed Harris over Jahmyr Gibbs, who I'm concerned won't get a significant workload, and Rhamondre Stevenson, who the Patriots seem determined to use less in 2023. Harris absolutely killed me as a first-round choice last season, with 330 of his 1,034 total rushing yards coming in Week 15 and later when I was already dead last in the league, but it's that final stretch -- he was clearly healthy at that point -- that gives me a bit of optimism entering this season. Maybe I should be more wary of Jaylen Warren, who I think is just "a guy", but the selection of Broderick Jones in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft gives me hope that the moribund offensive line can rebound.
4.7 - Josh Jacobs
To be clear, I never intended to go this direction and I had actually taken Jacobs off my board before the draft. I was cursing my luck that one pick before me went Travis Etienne, who I'm essentially all-in on at this point. Maybe the prudent choice to my first/second round conundrum would have been to select Jonathan Taylor, but with such high stakes I didn't want to acquire a back who could legitimately not play in 2023. A fourth-round selection isn't much different of a gamble, but at least in Jacobs' case the owner isn't actively squashing any sort of resolutions or compromises. More importantly for me, Zamir White seems like the obvious candidate to replace Jacobs' workload and the second-year Georgia product could be had for way cheaper than figuring out the messy Colts backup situation. I would be stunned if Jacobs gets anywhere close to last year's 1,653 rushing yards at any other point in his career, but even just 2020 or 2021 numbers would be perfect for my lineup. He just needs to play.
5.6 - Terry McLaurin
After getting sniped in back-to-back rounds, I was happy to see my preferred target finally fall to me. I don't think this is much of a hot take, but McLaurin has played with worse quarterbacks than Sam Howell for most of his career and yet he's logged three consecutive seasons with 1,000-plus yards. If Washington's offense even looks marginally more competent -- something I think Eric Bieniemy will help accomplish in 2023 -- McLaurin is going to see enough touchdown opportunities to be considered a third-round WR in ADP next season.
6.7 - Alexander Mattison
I would have preferred J.K. Dobbins here, but overall I knew I wanted to get one more running back before the group of heavy wide-receiver drafters dove into the backfield waters. I'm not entirely confident Mattison is a plug-and-play running back like the Vikings seem to believe he will be, but Mario Puig eased my concerns by mentioning his receiving acumen on one of our recent SiriusXM shows. There's just no one on the current depth chart that can operate as a consistent pass-catching threat, and even at 700 snaps (Dalvin Cook played 861 last season), Mattison should have a confident floor in an offense that will be one of the best in the NFC once again.
7.6 - Kyle Pitts
This marks the third consecutive season I've drafted Pitts in NFFC formats. I know tight ends typically are undervalued in this format for whatever reason, and I've made the mistake of taking multiple within my first 10 picks just based off perceived value. It was an especially difficult decision for me this time given my early selection at quarterback and taking a third running back by the sixth round, all but assuring I'd be incredibly weak at WR3. I had basically booked Jordan Addison into this spot when I was prepping for the draft, but Pitts' ADP drop was too much to ignore.
8.7 - Quentin Johnston
TWO PICKS AWAY FROM A BRILLIANT PLAY! I had done recon on Addison's ADP over the past week and it had been in the 86 ADP range, so the Pitts selection was also me mentally waving the white flag on getting Addison. To get that close to a guy that I think could be one of the better ADP values this year was brutal, but then again if I thought he was that important I should have prioritized him over Pitts. I would have liked this draft so much more if I had Ridley, Etienne and Addison, probably three of the top "my" guys this year, but it is what it is. For what it's worth, Johnston isn't a bad consolation prize, and if Keenan Allen and/or Mike Williams especially were to miss time, Johnston could go nuclear as the primary deep threat. He hasn't gotten favorable training camp reviews to start, but this pick was about Week 8 and beyond anyway.
9.6 - JuJu Smith-Schuster
Savvy NFFC drafters have for years plucked WRs earlier, but I think this year especially there's so many capable WR3s in this range of the draft that I wasn't worried too much about my orthodox roster build. I'm not sure I entirely agree with Mike Giardi's assessment of New England's wide receiver group, but he's around the team enough to know what it could look like. Still, Jakobi Meyers tallied a 67-804-6 line in just 14 games pioneered by Joe Judge/Matt Patricia offense -- the wide receivers might "stink, stank and stunk", but the scheme (and a much better version of it this year) can still produce fine enough.
10.7 - Romeo Doubs
After missing out on Addison, I wanted to make sure I was aggressive getting some other pass catchers that I liked. While I would have preferred Nico Collins or Rashod Bateman, Doubs has the easiest projectable role in a Packers offense sans Aaron Rodgers. Christian Watson was and will continue to be the team's big-play threat, but he's not going to see a Davante Adams kind of workload (nor do I think that's a role in this 2023 iteration of the offense). Prior to getting injured in Week 9, Doubs was arguably the team's most consistent receiver, tallying 30 catches for 296 yards on 49 targets. By the time he returned from a high-ankle sprain that kept him out until mid-December, Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb and Christian Watson were all healthy and soaking up an assortment of snaps. I envision Matt LaFleur will want to slow the tempo in an effort to not expose Jordan Love as much as possible, but they already averaged in the bottom third of plays run per game each of the past two seasons. How much slower can it get it? Doubs will be the chain mover in this offense, especially if the reported chemistry with Love is realized.
11.6 - Rashee Rice
I wanted to take as many swings at WR3 as possible. If I can just get two relevant guys, this roster will be in good shape. For what it's worth, I'm not worried about Kadarius Toney (knee) possibly returning for Week 1. It might take a bit for the rookie from SMU to find a footing in Kansas City's offense, but he's going to be play plenty of snaps, and he represents really the only big-bodied target besides Travis Kelce.
12.7 - Chase Brown
In hindsight, Dalton Kincaid or Chigoziem Okonkwo should have been my choice, but for better or worse I'm riding with Pitts for another year. There's so much uncertainty with all the name-brand running backs on the market currently so this pick could easily blow up in my face, but I wanted to target as many of the obvious backup backfield spots as possible with my remaining selections. Brown was incredibly productive despite a miserable Illinois offense and I have no doubt he'd see the kind of workload that would make him an attractive FLEX candidate if Joe Mixon misses time once again.
13.6 - Derek Carr
The run on quarterbacks made me anxious I'd miss out on my final tier of legitimate QB2 options, but in reality I hope to never break this glass in case of emergency. Maybe spot calling the first team defense, or scooping up another high-upside receiver should have been the choice with Mahomes on my roster, but I think in this format there's some value to also blocking someone from a possible weekly starter.
14.7 - Zamir White
This was really just insurance in case Jacobs doesn't come back. I'll probably also pick up Damien Williams upon first NFFC waivers if the situation is looking that dire, but I'd be a bit surprised if the Raiders didn't just try and see what they have in White in what figures to be a bit of a rebuilding year.
15.6 - Irv Smith
I was really debating between Smith and Michael Mayer, so in some ways I'm happy the decision was made for me. Hayden Hurst was arguably a starting fantasy tight end during his tenure with the Bengals, and I think Smith is not only a better blocker, but an equally capable pass catcher. So long as he can stay healthy, Smith is one of my favorite late-round TE targets besides Sam LaPorta, who went four rounds earlier.
16.7 - Jerome Ford
The news regarding Ford's hamstring injury was only about an hour old at this point in the draft, and in hindsight I probably should have taken Clyde Edwards-Helaire knowing Ford is now "week-to-week". In light of the injury I'd be stunned if the Browns don't sign one of these oft-mentioned veteran backups, but on the off chance Ford remains as the team's No. 2, it's an incredible lucrative backup job for an explosive running back that may already be considered the team's top pass catcher out of the backfield.
17.6 - Chiefs Kicker
Harrison Butker is back healthy and I wanted to stack with Mahomes. That's about the level in which I thought this through.
18.7 - DeWayne McBride
Completing my trifecta of interesting backups, McBride is easily the back to roster in the event Mattison disappoints or gets injured. Ty Chandler might win that job initially, but he's not as convincing of a runner compared to the rookie, who compiled over 3,000 rushing yards spanning two years at UAB.
19.6 - Steelers Defense
I was planning to take the Jaguars defense, who go against the Colts Week 1, but a healthy TJ Watt against Tommy John Brock Purdy still seems like it could work out well. It might be tricky to roster the Steelers in Week 2, but if I can, they're easily startable Week 3 against the Raiders, and Week 4 against the Texans.
20.7 - Joshua Palmer
Already injured, he'll be one of my first cuts. Palmer was productive in the absence of Keenan Allen last season, but there's very few instances where I'd recommend rostering a backup wide receiver, even in a format as deep as this one.
