This is our Monday Night Football DFS strategy breakdown for Week 15 between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Miami Dolphins.
Monday night's game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) and visiting Miami Dolphins (6-7) figures to be bitter and brutal, and neither passing game figures to look great in the sub-20 cold. Both teams are in the thick of the playoff race, however, so not much can be held back by other side. The over/under is at 42.0 with the Steelers favored by 3.0 points.
QUARTERBACK
One of them is old, obnoxious and expired with a broken non-throwing hand, while the other boasts arguably the worst contract in the NFL and a memorable fragility as a passer. The quarterback options in this game are not obviously enticing.
If Tua Tagovailoa ($9600 DK, $11200 FD) provides a cashing-viable box score here it would probably be owed to the injuries in the Pittsburgh pass rush and secondary. Tagovailoa has been more bad than good for years, and the bad most reliably occurs outdoors in the cold or/and wind. The wind shouldn't be an issue here, meaning if Tagovailoa struggles it will offer case-study evidence that he simply cannot play in the cold no matter how easy it is otherwise. Tagovailoa has single-digit fantasy points in four of his last five starts.
Aaron Rodgers ($9800 DK, $11800 FD) is somehow outplaying Tagovailoa even in a Pittsburgh offense that all but forfeits the pass by design. DK Metcalf's huge game propelled Rodgers' otherwise decent box score from last week, but if Metcalf's production lags it's not clear where else it's supposed to occur. At least Rodgers is plenty used to the cold – the temperature Monday is a concern for Tagovailoa but probably not Rodgers, who just needs to manage the Miami pass rush to find otherwise favorable throwing conditions against the Dolphins.
RUNNING BACK
De'Von Achane ($12800 DK, $13400 FD) is very expensive and chalky but he's still probably a recommended play here in a game where the Dolphins are dependent on his production and the Steelers appear somewhat unlikely to be able to stop him. Selecting Achane does not at all preclude picking a backup Dolphins runner – Jaylen Wright ($6800 DK, $7400 FD) excelled as Achane's injury replacement last week, and rookie Ollie Gordon ($4800 DK, $5800 FD) is always a candidate to show up especially when there is short-yardage running to do. The Dolphins probably need at least one productive running back to win this game, and maybe more likely two.
Jaylen Warren ($9000 DK, $10600 FD) is the RB1 for Pittsburgh but they envisioned him as more of a passing-down specialist who complements a true bruising starter. Lacking the latter, the Steelers have instead forced Warren into the Bruising Starter role while Kenneth Gainwell ($7000 DK, $8800 FD) operates as the in-space specialist. This is unfortunate for Warren, because the rushing work he gets wears him down more quickly, and in sparing Gainwell the harshest carries Warren's presence allows Gainwell to claim a disproportionate share of the pass-catching work, even though Warren is a better receiver than Gainwell, too. Fantasy football is often about opportunity rather than talent, and right now Gainwell has the favorable opportunity level as he spams impotent checkdown receptions to accommodate Rodgers' inability to play serious quarterback at this point. With all that said, for the Steelers to win this game they might need strong showings from both Warren and Gainwell.
WIDE RECEIVER + TIGHT END
Jaylen Waddle ($10800 DK, $9800 FD) is constantly held back by his quarterback but Waddle's talent is immense and even in this cold he might be dangerous to a Pittsburgh defense depleted in both the pass rush and the secondary. If not Waddle then at least one of Darren Waller ($4400 DK, $7000 FD) or Malik Washington ($5800 DK, $8200 FD) would warrant central consideration. There's also reason to consider Greg Dulcich ($1600 DK, $4400 FD), who has 13 receptions over his last five games. Unfortunately, there's not much else to talk about with the Miami passing game.
DK Metcalf ($9400 DK, $12600 FD) is not an easy fade in this game, where the opposing run defense appears tougher than the pass defense. The Miami corners categorically cannot cover Metcalf, so it would probably take either an unusually bad game from the Miami run defense or a notably bad game from Rodgers for Metcalf to fall flat. If you don't pick Metcalf then a piece or two of the Pittsburgh receiving game otherwise might be worth your consideration, though it's hard to see the ostensible utility of Adam Thielen and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, two recently-acquired veterans who seemingly were inserted into the lineup over the young and speedy duo of Calvin Austin and Roman Wilson merely because Rodgers requested it. Rodgers requests a lot of things... anyway, with the Rodgers Offense mucking up the picture at receiver the best non-Metcalf pass-catching targets in the offense might be the tight ends. The order of preference there probably goes Pat Freiermuth ($3000 DK, $5400 FD), then Darnell Washington ($2600 DK, $4800 FD), then Jonnu Smith ($2800 DK, $3800 FD).
KICKER
Chris Boswell ($5400 DK, $6800 FD) is one of the best kickers in NFL history and arguably the second-best in the NFL right now, even with a field-goal percentage under 90 on the year. Boswell kicks with remarkable range, with a third of his attempts in 2025 occurring beyond 50 yards. Boswell is always a central consideration on single-game slates.
Riley Patterson ($5000 DK, $6600 FD) badly lacks range, but the journeyman kicker has otherwise boasted excellent accuracy in 2025, making 23 of 25 field goal attempts. Even with basically no 50-yard kicks in 2025, Patterson has gone over double-digit fantasy points in seven games this year.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Either or both defenses could prove important in this game. Both quarterbacks are somewhat vulnerable for various reasons, and the temperature going below freezing very rarely does any favors for a passing game.
The Dolphins ($3600 DK, $6200 FD) have improved their rush defense over the course of the year and their pass rush was good all the while, so if they can put Aaron Rodgers into difficult situations they might be able to keep the Steelers offense under control. The Miami secondary might need some help – their corners cannot cover DK Metcalf – but between the cold and a pass rush there's a route for the Dolphins defense to come through here.
The Steelers ($4000 DK, $6400 FD) would normally pose the exact same dangers to the vulnerable Miami passing game as the Dolphins pass rush does to Pittsburgh's, but the absences of T.J. Watt and Derrick Harmon could compromise the Pittsburgh pass rush enough for the Miami passing game to find just enough space to function. Then again, the Steelers are the home favorites and Tua Tagovailoa has a dreadful record in the cold.
