This article is part of our Showdown/Single Game DFS Breakdown series.
At 1-3 with a below average quarterback and battered roster otherwise the Colts are unlikely to pose much of a playoff threat this year. If they lose this game, though, it becomes substantially less likely yet, so if coach Frank Reich has the players' attention they should show up focused and determined to play in this road game. The problem for the Colts – aside from the point that basically nothing is functional about the team through one month – is the Ravens tend to have one of the league's more notable home-field advantages, and whereas nearly everything is wrong with the Colts at the moment, the Ravens are only dysfunctional in some capacities. As the seven-point spread implies, the Colts might have to be clever to make a game of this. The over/under opened at 48 but is down to 46.
QUARTERBACKS
Lamar Jackson ($12600 DK, $17000 FD) is easily the star of the one-game slate, possessing regular 30-point upside in a game where only a couple other players are even vaguely capable of it. He faces a Colts defense that has struggled in 2021, arguably due in part to injuries. Indianapolis' defense should get better over the remaining part of the season, especially against the run, where the elite tackle tandem of DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart alone should dictate strong results. Whether that power on the interior allows the Colts to pose a containment effect to Jackson's rushing ability is less clear – Jackson's scrambling can take
At 1-3 with a below average quarterback and battered roster otherwise the Colts are unlikely to pose much of a playoff threat this year. If they lose this game, though, it becomes substantially less likely yet, so if coach Frank Reich has the players' attention they should show up focused and determined to play in this road game. The problem for the Colts – aside from the point that basically nothing is functional about the team through one month – is the Ravens tend to have one of the league's more notable home-field advantages, and whereas nearly everything is wrong with the Colts at the moment, the Ravens are only dysfunctional in some capacities. As the seven-point spread implies, the Colts might have to be clever to make a game of this. The over/under opened at 48 but is down to 46.
QUARTERBACKS
Lamar Jackson ($12600 DK, $17000 FD) is easily the star of the one-game slate, possessing regular 30-point upside in a game where only a couple other players are even vaguely capable of it. He faces a Colts defense that has struggled in 2021, arguably due in part to injuries. Indianapolis' defense should get better over the remaining part of the season, especially against the run, where the elite tackle tandem of DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart alone should dictate strong results. Whether that power on the interior allows the Colts to pose a containment effect to Jackson's rushing ability is less clear – Jackson's scrambling can take him anywhere, and doesn't necessarily need to run through the interior – but some teams leave the lane wide open for Jackson, and the Colts seem somewhat unlikely to do that, especially considering that defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus calls more zone coverages than most other coordinators, which makes it easier for defenders to keep their eyes on Jackson.
The good news for Jackson and his fantasy investors is that the Colts pass defense has been a total mess in 2021, and rather than a fluke it could be a part of a new trend if opposing offenses are simply starting to figure out the Colts zone coverage tendencies. For the Colts to slow Jackson they'll need to turn that trend backward and confuse him with disguised coverages, because the Colts corners can't cover these Ravens receivers for long. It's worth keeping an eye on the status of replacement left tackle Alejandro Villanueva, who's questionable with a knee injury, but even if Villanueva is out, right or wrong it probably won't affect Jackson's ownership numbers very much.
Carson Wentz ($10200 DK, $14000 FD) might not have much appeal in season-long fantasy football or multi-game DFS slates, but for a single game the bar is lower and it's one even he might reach. The Ravens have been less than imposing on defense, and they're without a key contributor at each level (Derek Wolfe on the line, Jaylon Ferguson at linebacker and Marcus Peters at corner. Starting safety DeShon Elliott (hamstring) is also questionable. With that said, this could still go badly for Wentz because, despite the unremarkable coverage by the Ravens defense through four games, their pass rush has been among the most lively in the league. Wentz has never handled pressure well, his offensive line is destroyed by injury, and the Ravens know how to bring the heat. Wentz needs to anticipate and manage the Baltimore blitzes.
RUNNING BACKS
Jonathan Taylor ($9800 DK, $13000 FD) is the best player the Colts have on offense and the Ravens know it. Particularly after showing poor tackling at times up to this point in the year, the Baltimore defense likely made it a point of emphasis to understand the costs of such poor tackling against a player like Taylor, who at nearly 230 pounds is faster than any player on the Baltimore defense. As the seven-point spread implies, the flow of this game is a bigger threat to Taylor than the defensive matchup itself, even with his offensive line obliterated. The quicker the Colts fall behind, the more likely they are to forget that they only have one truly good player on offense right now and hasten their own demise by going away from Taylor. Nyheim Hines ($5600 DK, $8000 FD) tends to be the main beneficiary when the Colts go to their catch-up script, and in that capacity he could be quite useful on this one-game slate. The Ravens have struggled to defend against running backs as pass catchers through four games, allowing opponents to complete 89.7 percent of their running back targets at 7.6 yards per target. If the Ravens don't address that then it's a huge weakness, and one Hines is qualified to exploit. Marlon Mack ($600 DK, $6500 FD) is hanging around if the game gets out of hand, but his 10 carries from Week 4 occurred for exactly that reason as the Dolphins fell apart.
On the Baltimore side Ty'Son Williams ($1200 DK, $10000 FD) has appeared to fall behind all three of Baltimore's veteran running back free agent pickups – a puzzling outcome given that Williams was productive in the prior three games. Latavius Murray ($7400 DK, $10000 FD) appears to be in the safe lead after securing 18 carries on 44 snaps in Week 4, ahead of Le'Veon Bell ($1800 DK, $5500 FD) and Devonta Freeman ($400 DK, $5500 FD), who respectively played 19 and six snaps. Patrick Ricard ($800 DK, $5000 FD) is hanging around at fullback but only has one target in his last three games.
WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS
Michael Pittman ($9000 DK, $11000 FD) might see the imposing shadow coverage of corner Marlon Humphrey, and that could limit Pittman's efficiency if so. Then again, the Colts are determined to force Pittman the ball and double-digit targets can often alleviate the ills of poor efficiency. The Colts only use Parris Campbell ($3800 DK, $6500 FD) as a speed decoy in three-wide sets – precisely the opposite of his skill set – so a funnel of targets should continue toward Pittman and Zach Pascal ($8200 DK, $9500 FD). If Humphrey shadows Pittman then it could funnel even more toward Pascal, who should run most slot routes and see regular matchups against slot corner Tavon Young, who at 5-foot-9 is much smaller than the 6-foot-2 Pascal. Mo Alie-Cox ($5000 DK, $7000 FD) played 42 snaps to 20 for Jack Doyle ($2600 DK, $7000 FD) last week, but that was potentially due to Doyle playing through a back issue. If that back issue no longer applies to Doyle, then he might jump back ahead of Alie-Cox. The rookie Kylen Granson ($200 DK, $5000 FD) is hanging around as the TE3 but hasn't gotten anything going to this point.
The Ravens passing game is much more explosive and in a better position to strike. Marquise Brown ($11000 DK, $13500 FD) drew some negative attention for dropping passes a couple weeks ago, but he's still been extremely effective through four games. If Brown has 326 yards and three touchdowns on just 176 snaps even after dropping those passes, then he's getting open constantly. Sammy Watkins ($5800 DK, $7500 FD) hasn't been bad himself, but the gap between him and Brown is real, and it's why Brown is so much more expensive. Devin Duvernay ($4800 DK, $6000 FD) and James Proche ($1000 DK, $6000 FD) appear to be in a committee at WR3 behind Brown and Watkins, though Rashod Bateman ($200 DK, $6500 FD) will be back soon and could be a slate-breaker if declared active before this game. Bateman probably won't displace Watkins right away, but he should jump over Duvernay and Proche in a hurry and apply pressure to Watkins in due time. Of course, Mark Andrews ($6600 DK, $12000 FD) is capable of producing as Baltimore's lead receiver in any given game, and that applies here as well. Realistically, Watkins is the WR3 in function and Andrews is the co-WR1 with Brown.
KICKERS
Justin Tucker ($4000 DK, $9000 FD) needs no introduction, and as a seven-point home favorite this projects as one of his better matchups on paper. Field goals should be enough to bury the Colts, and the Ravens should find their way into opposing territory with some amount of consistency. If Baltimore sputters upon reaching scoring range, then the benefits could funnel toward Tucker as much as the various ballcarriers and pass catchers. Tucker has double-digit fantasy points in three of his four games this year, including 17 points in his heroic effort against the Lions in Week 3.
Rodrigo Blankenship ($3600, $8500 FD) is the guy for the Colts, and he's also doing a good job to this point in the year, nailing 9-of-10 field goal attempts and all of his PATs. The projected game flow doesn't look good for him on paper, but he does have double-digit fantasy points in each of his last three games.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
The Ravens ($4400 DK) defense is somewhat expensive given that they've only once exceeded four fantasy points this year (11 against Denver in Week 4), but the high price could have something to do with Wentz's poor play and the annihilated Indianapolis offensive line. The Ravens have applied a lot of pressure this year and Wentz is easily rattled. If the Ravens cover then it might be a game flow where things get out of hand, and that would likely require a collapse by Wentz.
Investors in the Colts ($3200 DK) defense will hope Eberflus confuses Jackson and creates the turnovers necessary for an upset script, though the spread does not anticipate this. To be fair to the Colts, their defense has been more valuable than the Ravens in fantasy so far, surpassing four fantasy points in each of the last three weeks (26 points total).
