The fantasy football offseason is essentially a months-long stock market. Player values rise and fall as coaching changes happen, depth charts shift and news breaks across the league.
Free agency doesn't just create winners and losers among the players who changed teams. It also reshapes the fantasy outlook for players who stayed put. A new teammate arriving can shrink a role just as quickly as a departed rival can expand one.
This week, we'll evaluate players whose fantasy value dropped the most based on the moves made around them. These aren't players who changed teams. These are players whose paths to production narrowed because of free agents who signed with their teams. If you've missed any previous installments of this series, you can find them here.
Quarterback
Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons
Not only is Penix recovering from a serious knee injury, but he now has competition after the Falcons signed Tua Tagovailoa on a one-year deal.
The two quarterbacks are polar opposites. Penix is a big-armed passer with accuracy issues. Tagovailoa is accurate on short passes while possessing one of the weakest arms in the league.
New head coach Kevin Stefanski needs to win right away, and if he determines that Penix isn't the solution early in the season, the leash could be short.
The supporting cast beyond Drake London is a concern as well. The next two receivers on the depth chart are Jahan Dotson and Olamide Zaccheaus. Neither inspires confidence in a high-functioning passing attack.
Penix needs to prove he can stay healthy and win the job outright, and even then the weapons around him limit the ceiling. He's a late-round superflex dart throw at best, and only if reports out of training camp confirm he's the clear starter.
Running Backs
Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After a great rookie season in 2024, many fantasy managers will rationalize Irving's disappointing 2025 as an injury-related outlier. There is some truth to that. But even before the injuries hit, the efficiency of the prior season was nowhere close to repeating.
It also hurt that the Buccaneers lost offensive coordinator Liam Coen before the 2025 season began.
The addition of Kenneth Gainwell on a two-year, $14 million deal is the ripple effect that matters most. That contract says Gainwell is not a backup. He's a 1B to Irving's 1A.
Gainwell thrived as a receiver in Pittsburgh, catching 73 passes with an 85.9 percent catch rate. That receiving ability could cost Irving a significant chunk of passing-down work. In PPR formats, losing those targets is devastating to Irving's weekly floor.
For the second consecutive year, Irving is a player to avoid in drafts unless the price drops substantially from where the market wants to put him.
Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers
Warren has been a productive player throughout his career, but the Steelers made it clear through their actions that they view him as a committee back. After signing Kenneth Gainwell last year, this year's answer is Rico Dowdle, who arrives on a two-year, $12.25 million deal following back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons in Carolina.
The multi-year commitment at non-backup money once again makes Warren a player whose weekly role will be difficult to predict. Dowdle, like Gainwell before him, is a capable receiver, so Warren is no lock to hold a heavy passing-down role.
The Steelers keep adding backs who can do what Warren does, which puts a hard cap on his touch ceiling. If Warren is cheap enough in drafts, he's a solid-floor RB3. But don't draft him expecting anything more than that. Pittsburgh has shown no interest in making him a bell cow.
Woody Marks, Houston Texans
After being drafted in the fourth round of the 2025 draft, Marks was expected to develop into a solid receiving back. That never materialized.
Between the loss of Joe Mixon to injury and the ineffectiveness of an aging Nick Chubb, Marks surprisingly took on an early-down role, though he managed just 3.6 yards per carry. He caught only 24 passes on the season, so the Texans clearly didn't see him as an answer in the passing game either.
Houston's trade for David Montgomery changes everything for Marks. Montgomery will command the early down and goal-line work, leaving Marks without a defined role.
The receiving back question remains unanswered as well. Unless word comes out of training camp that Marks has locked down a clear passing-down role, he's not worth considering until after the first 100 picks are off the board.
Wide Receivers
Chimere Dike, Tennessee Titans
Dike's best stretch of the 2025 season came in Weeks 7 and 8, when he averaged 5.5 catches, 82 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game. The rest of the way his best game was 55 yards.
However, from Week 9 on, he scored five touchdowns between receiving and punt-return work. Playing on a struggling offense wasn't optimal, but it was clear that Dike was a playmaker capable of breaking out at any time.
The problem is positional overlap. Despite outside-receiver size (6-foot-1, 196), Dike played in the slot 58 percent of the time. Once the Titans signed Wan'Dale Robinson to a four-year, $78 million deal in free agency, the slot role that fueled Dike's production is no longer his.
Robinson is getting paid significant money to play in the exact spot where Dike made his impact.
Can Dike transition to more work on the outside? It's possible, but betting on a receiver to change his role and maintain production is a risky proposition. Dike is nothing more than a late-round dart throw until we see evidence that the coaching staff has carved out a defined role for him alongside Robinson.
Conclusion
The ripple effects of free agency have created meaningful fantasy value declines across multiple positions. The common thread across all of these players is that none has changed teams. Their fantasy values shifted because the players around them did. Identifying these ripple effects early is what separates prepared fantasy managers from those who draft based on last year's box scores. For the latest depth chart updates and player movement, be sure to visit RotoWire's NFL depth charts.
