This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Another week in the NFL, another week of making some wagers. I still think there are some games and specifically player props to take advantage of, so let's get to it. I'd pay more attention to those as I think that's where there's value.
Games
The game I like the best this week is the Eagles-49ers matchup. The Eagles getting 7 on the road after a bad start but I'll buy here into Doug Pederson. I'd take the money line and sprinkle in 25 percent of that on the money line for Philadelphia. Note that I'm 1-2 this season on best bets but was 12-4-1 last season. Let's hope we get back to .500 this week.
In a battle of bad teams (0-3), I like the Texans at home laying 3.5 points. The Vikings are really bad and this is just trusting in Deshaun Watson. Look for them to cover this spread.
Uh oh, it's Fitzmagic (it's a Cars, 80s reference, for you young ones). Seattle has to travel across the country to Miami and face the Dolphins who appear to be maximizing their potential under Brian Flores. Keep in mind that Tua Tagovailoa will take over at some point for those needing a quarterback. While that won't happen this week take the Dolphins at home with the points.
Traitor! I've picked the Raiders at home with three points coming off a loss in New England over my hometown Bills. I'd like to think I have my finger on the pulse of the Bills and I think this is a letdown spot for them. Through the first three games, the Bills seem to play to the level of their opponent and inexplicably let the Rams get back into the game despite having a notable 28-3 lead. I hope I'm wrong here but I'm picking with my head as opposed to my heart. I also like the under in this game (52.5) as the Bills defense is solid and I'd expect a lot of Josh Jacobs should drain the clock.
Player Props
I'm all-in on Joe Mixon this week. He's -167 to score a touchdown, let's go over 75.5 rushing yards and over 95.5 rushing + receiving yards. I think he'll easily eclipse all of those; I'm not worried about the Jacksonville defense on the road. His injury status will need to be monitored Sunday, however.
Marquise Brown had a 6-2-13 line last week against the Chiefs and should improve drastically upon that this week as a 14-point favorite at the Washington Football team. Over 42.5 receiving yards is the pick and I'd sprinkle in a lesser amount on him scoring an anytime touchdown at +125.
Without Chris Godwin, I'm going to double-dip on two receiving options for Tampa. Scotty Miller is +250 to score while Rob Gronkowski is +350. I have to think one of them finds the end zone and if both do, that's just some extra gravy.
I'd watch for the odds to change but as of now, Carlos Hyde is +125 to score. I have to think the Seahawks err on the side of caution and hold out Chris Carson, making Hyde the main ball carrier. Watch the odds/beat reporters 90 minutes before kickoff to adjust here; Carson being out obviously helps Hyde's odds here.
The Saints pass defense has been terrible thus far and now they'll be without both Marshon Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins. I think the play here is taking Matthew Stafford over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-143) which he's done in two of three games this season. I'd look at T.J. Hockenson (+180) as an anytime touchdown scorer as well.
Another player I'm going to double-up on is Evan Engram. I like the over for receiving yards at 42.5 and his odds to score an anytime touchdown sit at +300. Engram has 20 targets through three games so his 96 receiving yards seem like it should be higher. The 49ers have been hit hard by the injuries as well, which helps the cause here.
It's not out yet but there will be an over/under on the receiving yards for Marquez Valdes-Scantling. He actually has better anytime touchdown odds than Julio Jones (-122 to +120) and without Allen Lazard, he should be the second receiving option. If his number for receiving yards is 30-40ish, take the over.
