DraftKings NFL: Week 9 DFS Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Sunday's Week 9 slate includes 12 games and features Cowboys-Falcons as the only one with a total higher than 50 points. Lions-Packers is the marquee matchup, but it's an afterthought from a DFS perspective. The Saints will be a popular source of value, given the return of Derek Carr and a date with the hopeless Panthers. As will the Bengals as it appears likely that both Tee Higgins and Zack Moss will be ruled out. It will lead to some massive chalk in tournaments, where low-owned leverage is the ultimate key to winning first place. Keep that in mind when building lineups.  

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays. 

• WR Chris Olave at CAR ($6,100)

Not only is Olave priced his cheapest all season, he also has a prime matchup against Carolina, which allows a league-high 34 points per game while surrendering big games to No. 1 WRs. Also working in Olave's favor is the return of Derek Carr, a significant upgrade from Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener. Olave still managed eight catches on 14 targets for 106 yards last week, and I expect he'll continue to be a target-monster now that Rashid Shaheed (knee) is out of the mix. 

• RB Alvin Kamara at CAR ($7,800)

Despite his rather lofty salary, Kamara projects as the top value on the slate by some margin given the Saints cupcake matchup against the Panthers. No defense has permitted more fantasy points to running backs than Carolina and with Derek Carr back, we can feel safer that New Orleans will move the ball and control the game. I have no issue starting with two Saints in cash-games given how soft the matchup is and how many points the Panthers allow. They'll also be quite popular given that they rank as the top value at their respective positions, so even if one happens to underperform, it shouldn't matter much. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Jalen Hurts vs. JAX ($7,800)

QB Dak Prescott at ATL ($6,300)

QB Geno Smith vs LAR ($5,800)

QB Daniel Jones vs. WAS ($5,200)

RB Kyren Williams at SEA ($8,000)

RB Alvin Kamara at CAR ($7,800)

RB Bijan Robinson vs. DAL ($7,400)

RB De'Von Achane at BUF ($6,700)

RB James Conner vs. CHI ($6,600)

RB D'Andre Swift at ARI ($6,400)

RB Chase Brown vs. LV ($5,900)

WR CeeDee Lamb at ATL ($8,800)

WR Ja'Marr Chase vs. LV ($8,600)

WR Malik Nabers vs. WAS ($7,500)

WR Drake London vs. DAL ($6,700)

WR Chris Olave at CAR ($6,100)

WR Jakobi Meyers at CIN ($5,300)

WR Cedric Tillman vs. LAC ($4,300)

TE Brock Bowers at CIN ($6,000)

TE Trey McBride vs. CHI ($5,800)

TE David Njoku vs. LAC ($5,500)

TE Mike Gesicki vs. LV ($3,100)

D/ST Tennessee Titans vs. NE ($3,200)

D/ST Arizona Cardinals vs. CHI ($2,600)

D/ST New York Giants vs. WAS ($2,300)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Dallas Cowboys (25.25) at Atlanta Falcons (27.25)

COWBOYS

Dallas ranks first in neutral pace, second in neutral pass rate and its games average the third-most combined snaps. The Cowboys haven't stopped anybody on defense either and usually find themselves in high-scoring games as a result. Dak Prescott ($6,300) has struggled this season and because of that, his salary has dropped to its lowest point of the season. CeeDee Lamb ($8,800) is coming off a massive game in San Francisco last week when he caught 13 of 17 targets for 146 yards and two scores. The fact that he's the most expensive player on the slate will keep his ownership in check. Jake Ferguson ($5,100) has caught at least six passes in four of the last five games and won't be overly popular either with Bowers, McBride and Njoku expected soak up the ownership in that range. With Brandin Cooks still sidelined, Jalen Tolbert ($5,100) and KaVontae Turpin ($3,700) are tertiary options, viable as dart throws in the largest-field tournaments. 

FALCONS

Atlanta ranks third in neutral pace and their games have averaged the fourth-most combined plays. It's no wonder that a matchup against an even faster-paced Dallas team has a 52-point total. Kirk Cousins ($6,400) is coming off his second four-touchdown game in the last month after torching Tampa Bay last week. He hardly carried any ownership last week and it will be the same this week. Drake London ($6,700), on the other hand, will be one of the most popular wide receivers. He's caught at least six passes in six of his last seven games while catching five TDs in that span. Darnell Mooney ($6,000) will be considerably less popular as he doesn't have as consistent a floor, but he's Atlanta's best deep threat and the Cowboys defense has been susceptible to long touchdown passes. Ray-Ray McCloud ($3,800) projects well for a price tag and will be a relatively popular source of value. It worries me that he's yet to catch a touchdown and I wouldn't expect Cousins to look his way near the goal line. Don't look now but Kyle Pitts ($4,900) has had four good games in a row and he's coming off his best of the season after 91 yards and two scores. Similar to Ferguson, he won't be popular as most will prefer to either punt down or spend all the way up. We've seen the Cowboys' defense unable to stop the run at times and this looks like a great spot for Bijan Robinson ($7,400). who after a slowish start to the season has put up at least 23 fantasy points in three consecutive games. 

• Favorite Cowboys Stack: QB Prescott + RB Robinson + WR Lamb
• Favorite Falcons Stack: QB Cousins + WR Lamb + WR London and/or TE Pitts

Los Angeles Rams (24.5) at Seattle Seahawks (23.5)

RAMS

I found it interesting that the Rams have a 66.7 percent neutral pass rate in games where both Cooper Kupp ($7,700) and Puka Nacua ($7,200) start. That number would rank first in the league, but the problem is that Kupp and Nacua have only started together twice and now Nacua's status is up in the air after tweaking his knee in practice Thursday. He looked outstanding last week against the Vikings, catching seven passes for 106 yards in his first action since Week 1. If he's ruled out, expect a significant bump in target share for the fully healthy Kupp after he looked good last week, catching five passes for 51 yards and a score. This an elite matchup for Matthew Stafford ($5,700) and the entire Rams offense when you consider that Seattle has given up at least 29 points in five consecutive games. The Seahawks have really been gashed on the ground, and that will have Kyren Williams ($8,000) licking his chops. He continues to be a workhorse as he's touched the ball 20-plus times in six of seven games while scoring 10 touchdowns in the process. He projects as one of the best plays on the board this week but won't be that popular because he's more expensive than the better-projected Alvin Kamara. If Nacua ends up missing, Demarcus Robinson ($4,800) and Tutu Atwell ($4,700) become viable GPP options.

SEAHAWKS

Seattle has been one of the fastest-paced offenses in the league all season. It ranks second in neutral pace, third in neutral pass rate and fourth in no-huddle rate. Geno Smith ($5,800) projects among the best value at quarterback, though he'll be without DK Metcalf and Noah Fant, but that means significant opportunity for the healthy Seahawks pass-catchers. Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($6,200) projects best. He's had a good sophomore season and is due some positive touchdown regression. Tyler Lockett ($5,600) and Jake Bobo ($3,400) are leverage options. As is promising rookie AJ Barner ($2,600), who will get an opportunity to step up in the absence of Fant. Kenneth Walker ($7,300) is enjoying a breakout season as he continues to be heavily involved in the passing game. He'll go a bit overlooked this week with Kamara and Robinson expected to be more popular in the $7K range.

• Favorite Rams Stack: QB Stafford + RB Walker + WR Kupp or WR Nacua 
• Favorite Seahawks Stack: QB Smith + WR Kupp/WR Nacua + WR Smith-Njigba +/- TE Barner

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Jalen Hurts + WR A.J. Brown or WR DeVonta Smith + TE Evan Engram 

QB Josh Allen + RB De'Von Achane or WR Tyreek Hill + WR Keon Coleman or TE Dalton Kincaid

QB Joe Burrow + WR Ja'Marr Chase + WR Jakobi Meyers +/- TE Mike Gesicki or TE Erick All

QB Joe Burrow + RB Chase Brown + WR Ja'Marr Chase + TE Brock Bowers

QB Kyler Murray + RB D'Andre Swift + TE Trey McBride

QB Tua Tagovailoa + RB James Cook + WR Tyreek Hill

QB Jameis Winston + WR Ladd McConkey + WR Cedric Tillman and/or TE David Njoku

QB Justin Herbert + WR Ladd McConkey + WR Cedric Tillman or TE David Njoku

QB Daniel Jones + RB Brian Robinson or WR Terry McLaurin + WR Malik Nabers

QB Gardner Minshew + RB Chase Brown and/or WR Ja'Marr Chase + WR Jakobi Meyers and/or TE Brock Bowers

High-Priced Heroes

• WR Ja'Marr Chase vs. LV ($8,600)

Essentially anytime Tee Higgins doesn't play, it becomes a smash spot for Ja'Marr Chase. That's especially true when the Bengals have a favorable home matchup like the one Sunday against the Raiders. With Higgins doubtful to play, we can project a significant bump in target share for Chase, who has seven touchdowns in his last six. Another reason to like him for tournaments is that won't be too chalky priced next to CeeDee Lamb and considerably higher than the popular value in the $6K range. 

• TE Trey McBride vs. CHI ($5,800)

There are five or six expensive tight ends projecting well this week, so it will be important to pick the right one to have success in GPPs. It's hard to believe that McBride has yet to score a touchdown through seven games but he reminded everyone what an elite talent he is last week when he caught nine passes for 124 yards against the Dolphins. This is another spot where Kyler Murray is likely to target McBride early and often as the Bears have a stout pass rush as well as one of the best cornerbacks in the league in Jaylon Johnson, who's likely to be shadowing Marvin Harrison. Nonetheless, it's a favorable matchup overall for the Cards' offense and one that should provide ample opportunity for McBride to break his TD duck. 

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• TE Will Dissly at CLE ($3,100)

Not to disparage Will Dissly, who's been solid as a favorite target of Justin Herbert in recent weeks, but he isn't the type of tight end I want to play into any ownership. It's understandable that he projects reasonably well given that he has 13 catches on 18 targets his last two games, but there's a reason he doesn't have a TD this season or catch longer than 22 yards. He's a meat-and-potatoes tight end, unlikely to win you a tournament, especially at ~10 percent ownership. Add to that Hayden Hurst practiced fully and will return after missing the previous two games. If I'm punting TE, I prefer the upside of a Bengal or leverage of a Saint. Mike Gesicki ($3,100) will be popular for the same price as Dissly while Erick All ($2,700) would offer leverage. The same can be said about Taysom Hill ($3,800) and Juwan Johnson ($3,200), who should be in line for significant roles as the Saints manage multiple injury absences. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• RB Chase Brown vs. LV ($5,900)

With Zack Moss (neck) doubtful to play, the path is clear for Chase Brown to see a lion's share of the backfield work. He'd already surpassed Moss on the depth chart, but they'd still been splitting time for the most part and now Brown is considerably underpriced with Cincinnati in a favorable spot at home against Las Vegas. The Raiders have been a run-funnel this season, which may encourage the Bengals to establish it more so than usual. The game script is also likely to favor Brown as I see Cincinnati sitting on a second half lead and closing it out with the running game. Even if that doesn't happen, he has plenty of upside in the passing game as well. There are multiple paths to 100-plus scrimmage yards and a touchdown, more than enough to pay off a $5,900 salary. 

Honorable Mention: RB Tyrone Tracy ($5,500)

The Bargain Bin

QB Geno Smith vs LAR ($5,800)

QB Matthew Stafford at SEA ($5,700)

QB Jameis Winston vs. LAC ($5,400)

QB Justin Herbert at CLE ($5,300)

QB Daniel Jones vs. WAS ($5,200)

QB Gardner Minshew at CIN ($4,500)

RB Tyrone Tracy vs. WAS ($5,500)

WR Cedric Tillman vs. LAC ($4,300)

WR Elijah Moore vs. LAC ($4,200)

WR Ray-Ray McCloud vs. DAL ($3,800)

WR Jalen Coker vs. NO ($3,600)

WR Jake Bobo vs. LAR ($3,400)

TE Juwan Johnson at. CAR ($3,200)

TE Mike Gesicki vs. LV ($3,100)

TE Will Dissly at CLE ($3,100)

TE Erick All vs. LV ($2,700)

TE AJ Barner vs. LAR ($2,600)

Injuries to Monitor 

• WR Puka Nacua at SEA

Sean McVay said he "wouldn't bet against" Nacua playing, whatever that means. If he's ruled out, Cooper Kupp ($7,700) would get a bump and become viable in all formats. Demarcus Robinson ($4,800) and Tutu Atwell ($4,700) would become viable in GPPs as leverage. I'd also give a small usage bump to Kyren Williams ($8,000). If Nacua is active, he's an especially good tournament option if that news isn't known before the early games lock. 

Weather

• The forecast calls for steady rain in Green Bay, maybe enough to downgrade the passing games. Check Sunday morning before playing Lions or Packers pass catchers.