This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Betting Odds Picks and Predictions for Sunday Night Football, Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers
A matchup steeped in history unfolds at Acrisure Stadium on Sunday night when the Cowboys and the Steelers face off.
The two squads come in with records that arguably are the reverse of the expectations of each team going into the season – Dallas comes in at just 2-2 while Pittsburgh sports a 3-1 mark.
Without further ado, let's dive into the best betting scenarios for the Week 5 primetime clash.
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Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Odds for NFL Week 5
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Cowboys +130 (ESPN BET)/ Steelers -145 (Caasars)
Point spread: Cowboys +3 (-112 DraftKings)/ Steelers -2.5 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
Totals: Under 44.0 points (BetMGM)/ Over 43.5 points (-115 FanDuel)
The four-game body of work for each team thus far in addition to the Cowboys' multiple key injuries unsurprisingly have led to the Steelers emerging as home favorites. However, the number actually sat at Cowboys -1 before the Week 4 action. Despite a subsequent close Dallas win and narrow Pittsburgh loss, it flipped to Steelers -1.5 by the start of the week. The number was subsequently bet up to -2.5, and it's bounced between that figure and -2 since midweek.
The total for the game has remained consistently low as it checked in at 42.0 points prior to the Week 4 action. The number was then bet down to 41.0 following Week 4 outcomes, but has risen throughout the week and sat as high as 44.0 at most sportsbooks as of Friday night. The fact all of Brandin Cooks (knee), DeMarcus Lawrence (foot) and Micah Parsons (ankle) are out for Dallas – while starting cornerbacks Caelen Carson (shoulder) and Trevon Diggs (ankle) both head into the game listed as questionable – has certainly played a role in the upward trend.
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Dallas Cowboys @ Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Picks This Week
The Cowboys entered the season with the usual elevated expectations. That reached even greater heights in the days leading up to the regular-season opener when both CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott inked long sought-after mega extensions. Dallas then went out and thumped the Browns on the road to open the 2024 campaign, but that became the high point of the first four games.
Dallas went on to take an embarrassing 44-19 shellacking at the hands of the Saints in its Week 2 home opener, and then suffered a second straight loss at AT & T Stadium in Week 3 to the Ravens. That 28-25 defeat was more lopsided than the final score indicates. Hopes of a convincing win over the Giants on the road four days later fell flat, as Mike McCarthy's club had to settle for a 20-15 squeaker that did at least even its record.
Yet, even that victory had plenty of negatives associated with it. Standout defenders Parsons and Lawrence both suffered their injuries that will keep them out of Sunday night's matchup, while Cooks apparently either suffered or aggravated a prior knee condition. A subsequent surgical procedure has now led to an infection, knocking the veteran No. 2 wideout out of action as well.
Heading into Pittsburgh for a primetime matchup is an uphill battle in and of itself, but doing so with multiple key missing pieces naturally ratchets the difficulty up. Adding to the unfavorable outlook for the Cowboys is the fact the Steelers are developing a solid offense to go along with their typically effective defense. Justin Fields wasn't supposed to open the season as a starter, but Russell Wilson's calf injury opened the door for Fields to make his case as a long-term starter.
While the first two games with Fields at the helm predictably featured very conservative play calling and sub-200-yard passing efforts from the mobile quarterback, the most recent two have seen the 2021 first-round pick of the Bears throw for a combined 557 yards and account for five total touchdowns (two passing, three rushing). It seems clear Fields has gotten increasingly comfortable in both the starting role and OC Arthur Smith's scheme. This week, he'll have the benefit of facing a Cowboys' pass rush that poses a much lower threat without Lawrence and Parsons.
As already mentioned, both of Dallas' cornerbacks also head into this game with uncertain availability. Even if they do suit up, they will be limited to a degree. George Pickens remains the Steelers' one consistent receiving threat. With both Jaylen Warren (knee) and Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle) are already ruled out, Fields could get some talented ancillary pieces like Pat Freiermuth and Calvin Austin involved.
Without Cooks, Prescott could also lead some truncated drives, especially considering Steelers shutdown corner Joey Porter figures to spend plenty of time on CeeDee Lamb. The Steelers already allow the fewest opponent plays per game (53.8), making the Under on Prescott's pass attempts an interesting bet to consider.
And finally, a same-game parlay shot on a Steelers win and Najee Harris finally finding the end zone this season is worth it a great price. Most especially considering the short-handed backfield Pittsburgh will play with, in addition to the fact Dallas is tied for most rushing red-zone TDs allowed (seven) and has conceded a 75.0 percent red-zone touchdown percentage.
Best Bets
- Steelers moneyline (-135 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
- Dak Prescott Under 34.5 pass attempts (-120 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Same Game Parlay: Steelers moneyline and Najee Harris Anytime TD scorer (+173 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction
Steelers 23, Cowboys 20
The Steelers' defense is both legitimately daunting and mostly healthy. The Cowboys certainly can't claim the same. There's enough missing here for Dallas to make it a tough night in enemy territory, especially considering Fields looks increasingly comfortable in Arthur Smith's scheme. While I still expect plenty of fight from a Dallas team that does have a rest advantage, I lean toward the hosts in a close, lower-scoring battle.
