Corner Report: Week 5

Corner Report: Week 5

This article is part of our Corner Report series.

This article will go game by game looking at the top wide receivers from an offense and, based on the inside/outside and left/right splits in the alignment data of those receivers, identify the cornerbacks most likely to face them in man coverage. The corners named will parenthetically cite the rank of their coverage grade from Pro Football Focus from the 2018 season. The snap counts listed are not a projection, but rather the totals from so far this year.

Receivers very rarely see the same corner every play, be it due to formational quirks or zone coverage calls by the defense, so a receiver's fortunes depend on much more than just the quality of the corner they're likely to see the most in a given game. But it's part of the puzzle, and it's worth keeping track of.

Receivers are left with an Upgrade, Downgrade, or Even verdict based on their projected matchup. This shouldn't be read as 'good' or 'bad' but rather a measured tweak from the receiver's baseline projection.
 

NYG vs MIN

GIANTS WR SNAPS

Sterling Shepard: 197 snaps – 40 wide (17 left, 23 right), 152 slot (71 left, 81 right), one tight (one left), four back

Bennie Fowler: 190 snaps – 103 wide (42 left, 61 right), 78 slot (41 left, 37 right), seven tight (two left, five right), two back 

Cody Latimer: 127 snaps – 93 wide (62 left, 31 right), 33 slot (21 left, 12 right), one tight (one right)

This article will go game by game looking at the top wide receivers from an offense and, based on the inside/outside and left/right splits in the alignment data of those receivers, identify the cornerbacks most likely to face them in man coverage. The corners named will parenthetically cite the rank of their coverage grade from Pro Football Focus from the 2018 season. The snap counts listed are not a projection, but rather the totals from so far this year.

Receivers very rarely see the same corner every play, be it due to formational quirks or zone coverage calls by the defense, so a receiver's fortunes depend on much more than just the quality of the corner they're likely to see the most in a given game. But it's part of the puzzle, and it's worth keeping track of.

Receivers are left with an Upgrade, Downgrade, or Even verdict based on their projected matchup. This shouldn't be read as 'good' or 'bad' but rather a measured tweak from the receiver's baseline projection.
 

NYG vs MIN

GIANTS WR SNAPS

Sterling Shepard: 197 snaps – 40 wide (17 left, 23 right), 152 slot (71 left, 81 right), one tight (one left), four back

Bennie Fowler: 190 snaps – 103 wide (42 left, 61 right), 78 slot (41 left, 37 right), seven tight (two left, five right), two back 

Cody Latimer: 127 snaps – 93 wide (62 left, 31 right), 33 slot (21 left, 12 right), one tight (one right)

Darius Slayton: 61 snaps – 52 wide (32 left, 20 right), eight slot (two left, six right), one tight (one left)


 

The return of Golden Tate from suspension complicates things for Sterling Shepard, who thrived as the Giants' primary slot wideout in the first four games. Unless the Giants run more four-wide and trips looks than in the past, Shepard will almost certainly need to run more of his routes outside. Or at least, Shepard generally appears more qualified to play outside than Tate, who has always had more of an inside skill set and whose likely decline at 31 years old leaves him less of a downfield threat with each passing day. Whoever is running slot snaps is the favorite to see Mackensie Alexander (72.5 PFF), who might be one of the league's better slot corners. Whoever is outside between Tate and Shepard might see some extra attention from Xavier Rhodes (55.1 PFF), though his play the last two years make him appear a manageable matchup. Trae Waynes (64.6 PFF) might be the better corner between himself and Rhodes, but neither appears better than average at this point.

Upgrade: N/A

Downgrade: N/A

Even: Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate, Cody Latimer, Darius Slayton


 

MINNESOTA WR SNAPS

Adam Thielen: 222 snaps – 97 wide (55 left, 42 right), 109 slot (43 left, 66 right), six tight (five left, one right), 10 back

Stefon Diggs: 185 snaps – 117 wide (56 left, 61 right), 67 slot (38 left, 29 right), one back

Bisi Johnson: 56 snaps – 22 wide (13 left, nine right), 32 slot (18 left, 14 right), two back

Bisi Johnson caught four passes in his NFL debut last week, but the rookie might normally project closer to 20 snaps in a game like this. He's played a little more in the slot than outside to this point, and if that trend continues he should see a lot of slot corner Grant Haley (70.5 PFF), though Adam Thielen will see Haley even more. Haley's 2019 coverage grade is down to 44.4, so he should be an upgrade for Thielen. The outside corners Thielen will otherwise face – Janoris Jenkins (66.3 PFF) and rookie DeAndre Baker (N/A PFF) – also look like easy matchups for the star wideout. Assuming he plays, Stefon Diggs will likely see a bit more of Jenkins and Baker than Haley, but he'll see all three and has the upper hand over all of them.

Upgrade: Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs

Downgrade: N/A

Even: Bisi Johnson

WAS vs NE

WASHINGTON WR SNAPS

Paul Richardson: 213 snaps – 84 wide (32 left, 52 right), 118 slot (43 left, 75 right), four tight (one left, three right), seven back

Trey Quinn: 204 snaps – 19 wide (five left, 14 right), 164 slot (79 left, 85 right), 19 tight (four left, 15 right), two back

Terry McLaurin: 182 snaps – 142 wide (91 left, 51 right), 38 slot (18 left, 20 right), one tight (one right), one back

Terry McLaurin (hamstring) is questionable after logging just a limited practice on Friday, but the matchup and quarterback situation is brutal enough that even a healthy McLaurin would project poorly. Stephon Gilmore is the shadow coverage threat, and he received PFF's second-highest coverage grade last year. Playing a little more on the right than the left, Paul Richardson might see Gilmore if Gilmore doesn't shadow McLaurin, though Jason McCourty (80.0 PFF) would be the remaining outside assignment if so. Richardson should otherwise see a decent amount of Jonathan Jones (61.0 PFF) in the slot, and he's doing much better in 2019 (83.5 PFF). Jones will likely be the primary assignment of Trey Quinn otherwise.

Upgrade: N/A

Downgrade: Terry McLaurin, Paul Richardson, Trey Quinn

Even: N/A


 

NEW ENGLAND WR SNAPS

Josh Gordon: 235 snaps – 167 wide (93 left, 74 right), 65 slot (39 left, 26 right), three tight (two left, one right)

Julian Edelman: 232 snaps – 24 wide (nine left, 15 right), 196 slot (81 left, 115), five tight (two left, three right), seven back

Phillip Dorsett: 197 snaps – 86 wide (43 left, 43 right), 105 slot (50 left, 55 right), one tight (one left), five back

If Josh Norman (72.0 PFF) declines to shadow Josh Gordon then he'll primarily play on the left side of the defense, which might put Gordon a little more so on right corner Quinton Dunbar (67.6 PFF). Dunbar (6-foot-2 with 4.44 speed) might actually be a tougher matchup for Gordon at this point than the aging Norman, who has really struggled in 2019 (52.8 PFF). Phillip Dorsett might see a bigger share of Norman, in any case, while Julian Edelman should mostly see Fabian Moreau (58.3 PFF), who displaced Jimmy Moreland from slot coverage last week. Moreau is probably better than Moreland, but even so, PFF credited Moreau with a brutal 2018 figure of 8.98 yards per target from the slot.

Upgrade: Julian Edelman

Downgrade: N/A

Even: Josh Gordon, Phillip Dorsett

CHI vs OAK

CHICAGO WR SNAPS

Allen Robinson: 239 snaps – 98 wide (51 left, 47 right), 133 slot (74 left, 59 right), eight tight (four left, four right)

Taylor Gabriel: 163 snaps – 73 wide (36 left, 37 right), 88 slot (35 left, 53 right), one tight, one back

Tarik Cohen: 133 snaps – six wide (two left, four right), 63 slot (32 left, 31 right), three tight (two left, one right), 61 back

Anthony Miller: 122 snaps – six wide (one left, five right), 104 slot (61 left, 43 right), 11 tight (eight left, three right), one back

Javon Wims: 120 snaps – 92 wide (50 left, 42 right), 25 slot (seven left, 18 right), two tight (one left, one right), one back

Allen Robinson plays all over and should see all the Oakland corners as a result. The toughest matchup of them might be Lamarcus Joyner (71.2 PFF), but Robinson has a major size advantage that could make the difference in jumpball situations. Gareon Conley (61.5 PFF) should primarily play on the right and Daryl Worley (51.1 PFF) on the left, and Robinson should see an even split of them when outside. Tarik Cohen should mostly see Joyner when running from a wideout spot, same with Anthony Miller. That the two are fighting for the same slot snaps is not good for either. Javon Wims will be the second-leading outside wideout with Taylor Gabriel (concussion) out, seeing a relatively even split of Conley and Worley in the process.

Upgrade: N/A

Downgrade: Tarik Cohen, Anthony Miller

Even: Allen Robinson, Javon Wims


 

OAKLAND WR SNAPS


 

Tyrell Williams: 226 snaps – 158 wide (106 left, 52 right), 64 slot (33 left, 31 right), two tight (two right), two back

Hunter Renfrow: 120 snaps – three wide (three left), 114 slot (52 left, 62 right), three tight (one left, two right)

J.J. Nelson: 52 snaps – 25 wide (10 left, 15 right), 25 slot (12 left, 13 right), two back
 

Tyrell Williams has played outside roughly 2.5 times as much as inside, and on the left twice as much as the right. He should therefore mostly see Prince Amukamara (76.2 PFF), and to a lesser extent Kyle Fuller (84.1 PFF), both of whom are tough draws. Buster Skrine (50.8 PFF) is the most vulnerable Bears corner, and he would primarily see Hunter Renfrow and to a lesser extent J.J. Nelson (knee) if available. Trevor Davis may need to serve as the third receiver if Nelson is out again.

Upgrade: N/A

Downgrade: Tyrell Williams, J.J. Nelson, Trevor Davis

Even: Hunter Renfrow

PHI vs NYJ

PHILADELPHIA WR SNAPS

Nelson Agholor: 265 snaps – 29 wide (19 left, 10 right), 219 slot (118 left, 101 right), nine tight (four left ,five right), eight back

Mack Hollins: 262 snaps – 101 wide (48 left, 53 right), 87 slot (30 left, 57 right), one tight (one right), two back

J.J. Arcega-Whiteside: 138 snaps – 108 wide (56 left, 52 right), 29 slot (16 left, 13 right), one tight (one right)

Alshon Jeffery: 115 snaps – 92 wide (47 left, 45 right), 20 slot (12 left, eight right), three tight (two left, one right)

DeSean Jackson: 61 snaps – 28 wide (14 left, 14 right), 32 slot (nine left, 23 right), one back

Nelson Agholor reliably runs in the slot, where he should usually see Brian Poole (60.5 PFF). Poole's 2019 is off to a much better start (84.6 PFF), so this could be a challenging matchup for the already mistake-prone Agholor. Alshon Jeffery should see a mostly even split between Nate Hairston (48.4 PFF) and Darryl Roberts (66.4 PFF), both of whom can be boxed out by someone with Jeffery's frame. Mack Hollins should see plenty of both Hairston and Roberts, too, though Hollins plays more in the slot than Jeffery.

Upgrade: Alshon Jeffery

Downgrade: N/A

Even: Nelson Agholor, Mack Hollins


 

JETS WR SNAPS

Robby Anderson: 181 snaps – 138 wide (86 left, 52 right), 43 slot (30 left, 13 right)

Jamison Crowder: 172 snaps – 43 wide (19 left, 24 right), 128 slot (58 left, 70 right), one back

Quincy Enunwa: 65 snaps – 39 wide (one left, 38 right), 26 slot (nine left, 17 right)

Josh Bellamy: 47 snaps – 31 wide (16 left, 15 right), 16 slot (11 left, five right)

Demaryius Thomas: seven snaps – three wide (three right), four slot (two left, two right)

Robby Anderson plays primarily outside and mostly on the left, which means he might see the most of Rasul Douglas, who has received slightly worse marks in 2019 (66.8) than 2018 (67.9 PFF). Douglas (6-foot-2, 209 pounds) can bully Anderson in close spaces, but with a 4.59-second 40 Douglas can't run with Anderson and his 4.36 speed. Anderson should get open downfield, the question might be more so whether Luke Falk will have enough time to throw, and if he'll hit the target if Anderson presents one. Jamison Crowder would have normally run against Avonte Maddox (concussion), but Maddox is out, as is left corner Ronald Darby (hamstring). The recently signed Orlando Scandrick (69.8 PFF) might be a candidate to replace Maddox, while Sidney Jones (62.2 PFF 2019) should play on the left side. 

Upgrade: Robby Anderson

Downgrade: N/A

Even: Jamison Crowder, Josh Bellamy

NO vs TB

NEW ORLEANS WR SNAPS

Michael Thomas: 238 snaps – 126 wide (79 left, 47 right), 111 slot (74 left, 37 right), one back

Ted Ginn: 176 snaps – 114 wide (46 left, 68 right), 50 slot (24 left, 26 right), seven tight (three left, four right), five back

Tre'Quan Smith: 80 snaps – 19 wide (13 left, six right), 54 slot (31 left, 23 right), seven tight (six left, one right)

Austin Carr: 67 snaps – 13 wide (six left, seven right), 43 slot (28 left, 15 right), 11 tight (four left, seven right)

Playing evenly between the slot and outside but on the left more often than the right, Michael Thomas should see a good amount of Vernon Hargreaves (56.4 PFF) when outside and a decent amount of M.J. Stewart (56.1 PFF) in the slot. Stewart's 2019 PFF coverage grade is notably improved from his rookie year showing, registering at 66.8. Either player appears a useful matchup to Thomas, but maybe Hargreaves especially. Playing mostly in the slot, Tre'Quan Smith should see a good amount of Stewart as well – perhaps more than Thomas. Ted Ginn should see the most of Carlton Davis (59.0 PFF), who really can't mirror Ginn's speed.

Upgrade: Michael Thomas

Downgrade: N/A

Even: Ted Ginn, Tre'Quan Smith


 

TAMPA BAY WR SNAPS

Chris Godwin: 263 snaps – 39 wide (18 left, 21 right), 162 slot (79 left, 83 right), 60 tight (35 left, 25 right), two back

Mike Evans: 248 snaps – 188 wide (93 left, 95 right), 58 slot (30 left, 28 right), one tight (one right), one back

Breshad Perriman: 130 snaps – 63 wide (32 left, 31 right), 59 slot (30 left, 29 right), six tight (five left, one right), two back

Chris Godwin (hip) has the best matchup here, as the slot wideout should line up regularly against P.J. Williams (50.6 PFF), who even with an improved 2019 grade (59.0) is still clearly the weakest link in the Saints defense. Mike Evans is expected to see extra attention from Marshon Lattimore (72.9 PFF), who played a leading role in holding Amari Cooper to five catches for 48 yards on eight targets Sunday. Eli Apple (62.3 PFF) is the remaining corner, and by process of elimination we can figure he'll see the most of Bobo Wilson and Scott Miller, who are expected to replace the injured Breshad Perriman.

Upgrade: Chris Godwin:

Downgrade: Bobo Wilson, Scott Miller

Even: Mike Evans

CAR vs JAC

CAROLINA WR SNAPS

Curtis Samuel: 241 snaps – 139 wide (42 left, 97 right), 89 slot (48 left, 41 right), four tight (one left, three right), nine back

D.J. Moore: 237 snaps – 186 wide (140 left, 46 right), 43 slot (25 left, 18 right), one tight (one left), seven back

Jarius Wright: 167 snaps – 20 wide (10 left, 10 right), 142 slot (70 left, 72 right), five back

Jalen Ramsey (back) is out again, leaving Tre Herndon (48.6 PFF) as a projected mismatch against Curtis Samuel, who tends to line up on the right when playing outside of the slot. D.J. Hayden (73.7 PFF) is a tough assignment for Samuel on his applicable slot snaps, and a potential road block for Jarius Wright, who almost exclusively plays inside when Carolina goes three-wide. D.J. Moore tends to line up on the left and if so should see the most of A.J. Bouye (79.3 PFF). Bouye is a tough matchup, even with his 2019 grade a bit lower (66.2) lower through 136 coverage snaps.

Upgrade: Curtis Samuel

Downgrade: Jarius Wright, D.J. Moore

Even: N/A

JACKSONVILLE WR SNAPS

Chris Conley: 200 snaps – 170 wide (95 left, 75 right), 29 slot (14 left, 15 right), one tight (one right)

Dede Westbrook: 197 snaps – 22 wide (11 left, 11 right), 170 slot (83 left, 87 right), two tight (one left, one right), three back

D.J. Chark: 190 snaps – 94 wide (40 left, 54 right), 89 slot (36 left, 53 right), five tight (three left, two right), two back

The Panthers have been using a lot of zone coverages to mask the limitations of its cornerback personnel, perhaps especially in light of the injury to Donte Jackson (67.2 PFF), who is out for the second week in a row. They've had a lot of success in that span, shutting down Arizona and Houston both despite both teams possessing mammoth matchup advantages at wide receiver. Jacksonville's formidable wideouts project as advantages in this setting, too, but it's worth remembering that it hasn't amounted to much for the last two teams. With that said, James Bradberry (64.9 PFF) is the most feared remaining Carolina corner, and Carolina's heavy Cover 4 approach suits Bradberry's traits perfectly. He covers a quarter of the field, which practically means he just lofts slightly ahead of the outermost receiver, and then crashes down at the route's break point. Chris Conley and D.J. Chark should both see Bradberry, but Conley a little more. Running from the slot, Dede Westbrook might be one of Jacksonville's best means of flooding the zones underneath and hurt Carolina for sitting back against the deep pass, which they did constantly against Houston last week. Ross Cockrell (66.3 PFF 2019, N/A 2018) is in any case the lead slot corner for Carolina, and that his 2019 grade stands at a respectable number is a testament to how badly Arizona and Houston failed to adjust to Carolina's zones. Cockrell isn't a standout corner, so standout results can be attributed to schemes. There are ways to beat these schemes – perhaps Doug Marrone will have insights that Kliff Kingsbury and Bill O'Brien lacked. Javien Elliott (68.0 PFF) is the fourth corner but played over 40 snaps last week with Jackson out. He was the team's slot corner before they signed Cockrell as his replacement. He doesn't have the speed or size to match up with any of these Jacksonville receivers but, again, the zone emphasis might render that point moot.

Upgrade: N/A

Downgrade: N/A

Even: D.J. Chark, Dede Westbrook, Chris Conley

PIT vs BAL

PITTSBURGH WR SNAPS

Juju Smith-Schuster: 202 snaps – 51 wide (32 left, 19 right), 136 slot (65 left, 71 right), 13 tight (six left, seven right), two back

James Washington: 160 snaps – 75 wide (37 left, 38 right), 60 slot (26 left, 34 right), 22 tight (seven left, 15 right), three back

Diontae Johnson: 130 snaps – 82 wide (41 left, 41 right), 45 slot (23 left, 22 right), one tight (one right), two back

Juju Smith-Schuster should have the advantage in his matchup against Brandon Carr (69.1 PFF), but it's fair to wonder whether Mason Rudolph can take advantage after JSS saw just 11 targets in the last two games. He's also dealing with his ongoing toe issue. James Washington still played more snaps than Diontae Johnson last week, though their functions are slightly different with Washington seeing a most even inside/outside split while Johnson primarily plays outside specifically. With even left/right splits, Johnson should see a relatively even amount of Marlon Humphrey (81.6 PFF) and Anthony Averett (75.3 PFF), though Averett is the far preferable target. Averett's strong 2018 numbers were compiled over a small sample, and in 2019 his marks are far worse (43.1 PFF). 

Upgrade: N/A

Downgrade: N/A

Even: Juju Smith-Schuster, James Washington, Diontae Johnson


 

BALTIMORE WR SNAPS

Willie Snead: 202 snaps – 24 wide (10 left, 14 right), 161 slot (75 left, 86 right), three tight (one left, two right), 14 back

Marquise Brown: 181 snaps – 100 wide (28 left, 72 right), 74 slot (37 left, 37 right), one tight (one right), six back

Seth Roberts: 171 snaps – 145 wide (109 left, 36 right), 25 slot (19 left, six right), one back

Miles Boykin: 102 snaps – 84 wide (58 left, 26 right), 18 slot (12 left, six right)

With Joe Haden (70.9 PFF) and Steven Nelson (73.6 PFF) mostly playing left and right corner, respectively, Haden should see the most of Marquise Brown while Seth Roberts should see the most of Nelson. Both corners are playing very well, and it might be tough for either wideout to produce underneath or in the intermediate. Brown has the jets to lose Haden and his 4.5 speed deep, though there will presumably be safety attention to account for that. If Brown succeeds in this setting, it might require busted coverage or simply an electric performance on Brown's part. Both are possibilities with a player of his caliber, but there is risk in this setting. Willie Snead should mostly see Mike Hilton (72.0 PFF), a fine slot corner and a generally tough matchup.

Upgrade: N/A

Downgrade: Seth Roberts, Willie Snead

Even: Marquise Brown

CIN vs ARZ

CINCINNATI WR SNAPS

Tyler Boyd: 230 snaps – 27 wide (17 left, 10 right), 180 slot (75 left, 105 right), six tight (two left, four right), 17 back

John Ross: 224 snaps – 86 wide (51 left, 35 right), 124 slot (48 left, 76 right), five tight (three left, two right), nine back

Auden Tate: 137 snaps – 38 wide (20 left, 18 right), 94 slot (42 left, 52 right), three tight (one left, two right), two back

Damion Willis: 134 snaps – 68 wide (45 left, 23 right), 65 slot (41 left, 24 right), one back

Tyler Boyd walks into a potential smash spot against Arizona's weak pass defense in this potentially uptempo setting, especially with John Ross (shoulder) out. Boyd should primarily run against Tramaine Brock (60.5 PFF), a journeyman whose best days are behind at 31 years old, assuming Brock can play through a back issue. If Brock is out then it might rework the entire Arizona corner rotation. Promising rookie Byron Murphy might move to the slot in such a case, and with his 71.4 coverage grade he would project as a worse matchup for Boyd than Brock. Auden Tate is an even greater relative beneficiary of Ross' absence, and while Tate might see some of Brock in his ample slot opportunities, he's still likely to be outside of Boyd and therefore draw one of the two outside corners, be it Murphy, or unheralded fringe prospects Kevin Peterson and Chris Jones. Tate should be able to compete against even Murphy, but it's a clear green light if it's one of the other two. Damion Willis might see the most of Murphy if Brock plays, though if Murphy moves around then Willis would see a beneficial resulting matchup outside.

Upgrade: Tyler Boyd, Auden Tate

Downgrade: N/A

Even: Damion Willis

 

ARIZONA WR SNAPS

Christian Kirk: 263 snaps – 58 wide (10 left, 48 right), 193 slot (58 left, 135 right), five tight (two left, three right), seven back

Larry Fitzgerald: 260 snaps – 19 wide (15 left, four right), 229 slot (145 left, 84 right), 10 tight (eight left, two right), two back

Damiere Byrd: 202 snaps – 174 wide (160 left, 14 right),25 slot (24 left, one right), three tight (three left)

KeeSean Johnson: 158 snaps – 140 wide (12 left, 128 right), 15 slot (eight left, seven right), three tight (three right)

Trent Sherfield: 65 snaps – 54 wide (47 left, seven right), eight slot (six left, two right), two tight (two left), one back

Christian Kirk is out, freeing up a ton of slot snaps and probably raising Larry Fitzgerald's share of the passing game in this good on-paper matchup. The Bengals might need to run more zones to account for Arizona's spread-out approach, but whatever the coverage type Fitzgerald should mostly see B.W. Webb (60.3 PFF) in the slot, an advantage for Fitz. Pharoh Cooper might need to start in Kirk's place, making him a candidate to see some of Webb as well, though Cooper might lose some snaps to Andy Isabella either way, making both quite risky. Damiere Byrd is also out, freeing up a ton of snaps outside and on the left. KeeSean Johnson plays outside and on the right, where he should mostly see Dre Kirkpatrick (62.6 PFF), a solid corner but still the lesser between himself and right corner William Jackson (72.9 PFF). Jackson should be the problem of Byrd's replacement, which would likely be Trent Sherfield.

Upgrade: Larry Fitzgerald

Downgrade: Trent Sherfield

Even: Pharoh Cooper, KeeSean Johnson, Andy Isabella

HOU vs ATL

HOUSTON WR SNAPS

DeAndre Hopkins: 245 snaps – 156 wide (97 left, 59 right), 89 slot (43 left, 46 right)

Will Fuller: 242 snaps – 127 wide (59 left, 68 right), 111 slot (48 left, 63 right), two tight (one left, one right), two back

Kenny Stills: 95 snaps – 31 wide (23 left, eight right), 61 slot (23 left, 38 right), three back

Keke Coutee: 82 snaps – 18 wide (six left, 12 right), 58 slot (36 left, 22 right), six back

As I talked about earlier in this article, the great Texans WRs got nothing done last week largely because the Panthers declined to cover them at all, going with zone coverages that sat on Houston's evidently predictable route combos. The Falcons are more likely to give Houston man coverage looks, so the talents of DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller should finally show up better in this setting. If the Falcons don't move guys around too much, then Hopkins should see the most of Isaiah Oliver (69.6 PFF), who has struggled a bit to this point in 2019 (61.5 PFF). Oliver may be good, but anything less than great is an advantage for Hopkins. Fuller will see plenty of slot time and may catch some of Damontae Kazee on such snaps, and Kazee's 51.3 PFF coverage grade this year tells you about how well he's fared. If that matchup occurs, it's a big honking green light for Fuller, and an upgrade also for Keke Coutee when he draws Kazee in the slot. (I'm taking the liberty of assuming Coutee will play more than Kenny Stills even if stills plays through his hamstring issue). Desmond Trufant (68.7 PFF) should be Fuller's primary assignment when out wide, and last week's A.J. Brown touchdown showed us that Trufant isn't so great in pursuit.

Upgrade: DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Keke Coutee

Downgrade: N/A

Even: N/A

ATLANTA WR SNAPS

Mohamed Sanu: 223 snaps – 21 wide (13 left, eight right), 199 slot (115 left, 84 right), two tight (two left), one back

Julio Jones: 208 snaps – 133 wide (89 left, 44 right), 74 slot (36 left, 38 right), one tight (one right)

Calvin Ridley: 205 snaps – 128 wide (41 left, 87 right), 75 slot (22 left, 53 right), one tight (one left), one back

Mohamed Sanu will see lots of Bradley Roby (58.6 PFF) in the slot, a probable advantage for Sanu. Julio Jones primarily lines up on the left side when out wide which, unless Houston adjusts something, would leave him mostly on the rookie Lonnie Johnson (32.5 PFF 2019), a shrieking mismatch. Calvin Ridley primarily lines up on the right and should see Johnathan Joseph, the most feared Houston corner but one whose 58.6 coverage grade in 2019 points out his decline at 35 years old. Every Atlanta wideout is seeing green in this one.

Upgrade: Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Mohamed Sanu

Downgrade: N/A

Even: N/A

TEN vs BUF

TENNESSEE WR SNAPS

Corey Davis: 204 snaps – 74 wide (33 left, 41 right), 120 slot (57 left, 63 right), nine tight (four left, five right), one backfield

Tajae Sharpe: 137 snaps – 89 wide (56 left, 33 right), 46 slot (28 left, 18 right), one tight (one left), one back

Adam Humphries: 132 snaps – 11 wide (seven left, four right), 111 slot (63 left, 48 right), eight tight (seven left, one right), two back

A.J. Brown: 117 snaps – 68 wide (33 left, 35 right), 42 slot (14 left, 28 right), six tight (four left, two right), one back

The Titans would be smart to give more snaps to A.J. Brown, who objectively is far superior to Adam Humphries and Tajae Sharpe in any conceivable function. If Brown plays more and takes some of Sharpe's snaps, then Brown would see his snaps tilt slightly to the left after seeing a slight rightward emphasis in his reserve role. If Corey Davis draws the shadow coverage of Tre'Davious White (62.5 PFF) then that would leave Levi Wallace (85.3 PFF) as the remaining outside corner. Wallace received great performance grades this year and last, but with speed in the 4.6-second range I can't help but wonder if scheme has protected him somewhat. Still, the Buffalo pass rush is lively and these corners will have help. Taron Johnson (69.6 PFF) is the slot corner and a tough matchup for whoever lines up there.

Upgrade: N/A

Downgrade: Corey Davis, A.J. Brown, Tajae Sharpe, Adam Humphries

Even: N/A

 

BUFFALO WR SNAPS

John Brown: 256 snaps – 155 wide (84 left, 71 right), 96 slot (51 left, 45 right), five back

Cole Beasley: 192 snaps – 25 wide (14 left, 11 right), 166 slot (85 left, 81 right), one back

Zay Jones: 166 snaps – 45 wide (20 left, 25 right), 118 slot (63 left, 55 right), three tight (three right)

Playing mostly outside but with even left/right splits, John Brown should see an even helping of Adoree Jackson (69.0 PFF) when lined up on the left and Malcolm Butler (69.8 PFF) on the right. Jackson has the athleticism to mirror Brown effectively, but Butler does not. The more Brown sees Butler, the better the matchup. Zay Jones has floundered yet again and projects to continue as much regardless of whether he sees Jackson or Butler. Cole Beasley is the slot specialist and should see the most of slot corner Logan Ryan (70.1 PFF), a solid player but one far from dominant.

Upgrade: N/A

Downgrade: Zay Jones

Even: John Brown, Cole Beasley

LAC vs DEN

CHARGERS WR SNAPS

Keenan Allen: 234 snaps – 78 wide (43 left, 35 right), 145 slot (57 left, 88 right), four tight (one left, three right), seven back

Mike Williams: 150 snaps – 78 wide (40 left, 38 right), 70 slot (33 left, 37 right), one tight (one right), one back

Dontrelle Inman: 137 snaps – 71 wide (36 left, 35 right), 58 slot (31 left, 27 right), three tight (two left, one right), five back

Travis Benjamin: 114 snaps – 46 wide (22 left, 24 right), 45 slot (22 left, 23 right), one tight (one right), 22 back

Keenan Allen deserves the shadow coverage of Chris Harris (84.4 PFF) – anything else would be disrespectful. Mike Williams is back and, if Harris follows Allen into the slot, then Williams should see a pretty even split of the outside corner snaps. Isaac Yiadom would be one potentially favorable target for Williams, but Yiadom was seemingly benched last week for Duke Dawson and De'Vante Bausby, who respectively carry 2019 coverage grades of 60.1 and 71.8 over an inconclusively small sample. Both corners project as underdogs against Williams. Geremy Davis and Andre Patton are the replacement plans for Travis Benjamin and Dontrelle Inman, but they don't hold an obvious advantage over even Denver's backup corners.

Upgrade: Mike Williams

Downgrade: Keenan Allen

Even: Geremy Davis, Andre Patton


 

DENVER WR SNAPS

Courtland Sutton: 249 snaps – 143 wide (90 left, 53 right), 100 slot (65 left, 35 right), five tight (three left, two right), one back

Emmanuel Sanders: 232 snaps – 80 wide (30 left, 50 right), 141 slot (53 left, 88 right), seven tight (three left, four right), four back

DaeSean Hamilton: 176 snaps – 10 wide (five left, five right), 144 slot (65 left, 79 right), 19 tight (12 left, seven right), three back

There's a belief that the Chargers will shadow Courtland Sutton with Casey Hayward (77.7 PFF), but I couldn't see it in the tape when the two matched up last year. It's a strength-strength collision if it happens, though, and Sutton would incidentally see a lot of Hayward anyway given their alignment splits (Hayward generally plays on the right and Sutton generally lines up on the left, which is the defense's right). It's a downgrade for Sutton but he's shown the repeatedly ability to overcome tough matchups. The same is true of Emmanuel Sanders, who might be an extra focus of Desmond King (91.1 PFF) if Hayward is preoccupied with Sutton. But King generally plays in the slot, and sometimes he'll instead draw DaeSean Hamilton, for whom the matchup quite literally could not be worse. The duck in the Chargers secondary is Brandon Facyson, whose 50.9 coverage grade in 2019 reminds you that he was supposed to be the Chargers' CB5 this year, not the starting outside corner role injuries have pushed him into.

Upgrade: N/A

Downgrade: Courtland Sutton, DaeSean Hamilton

Even: Emmanuel Sanders

DAL vs GB

DALLAS WR SNAPS

Amari Cooper: 232 snaps – 160 wide (82 left, 78 right), 61 slot (30 left, 31 right), five tight (two left, three right), six back

Randall Cobb: 200 snaps – five wide (two left ,three right), 179 slot (84 left, 95 right), nine tight (four left, five right), seven back

Devin Smith: 136 snaps – 90 wide (46 left, 44 right), 44 slot (28 left, 16 right), one tight (one right), one back

Michael Gallup: 99 snaps – 75 wide (48 left, 27 right), 22 slot (12 left, 10 right), two back

Amari Cooper is expected to draw a fair amount of shadow coverage from Jaire Alexander (73.0 PFF), who is one of the best players league-wide. Perhaps Cooper wins on his own merit – he did as much against a similarly tough matchup against Xavien Howard a couple weeks ago. Michael Gallup (knee) is expected to return this week, and if Alexander is following Cooper then that leaves Gallup to run against the leftover outside corner. That's likely Tramon Williams (62.6 PFF) in base sets, but in nickel formations Williams will move into the slot. Normally Kevin King would be the remaining outside corner, but he's out, as is backup corner Tony Brown. Will Redmond (60.0 PFF) and Josh Jackson (64.0 PFF) are the only remaining options, and both project as favorable matchups for Gallup. Randall Cobb runs almost exclusively from the slot and should therefore almost exclusively run against Williams.

Upgrade: Michael Gallup, Devin Smith

Downgrade: Amari Cooper

Even: Randall Cobb

GREEN BAY WR SNAPS

Davante Adams: 231 snaps – 94 wide (41 left, 53 right), 131 slot (57 left, 74 right), one tight (one right), five back

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 218 snaps – 125 wide (79 left, 46 right), 85 slot (50 left, 35 right), two tight (one left, one right), six back

Geronimo Allison: 150 snaps – 25 wide (nine left, 16 right), 116 slot (67 left, 49 right), eight tight (four left, four right), one back

Davante Adams (toe) is out, clearing up a lot of snaps both outside and in the slot. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is the player best suited to imitate Adams' functions, so maybe MVS' left/right splits will even out after playing a little more on the left to this point. Geronimo Allison, on the other hand, seems pretty limited to the slot and therefore should stick to the same plan as before. Anthony Brown (62.9 PFF) is the lead slot corner for Dallas, and while Allison has a height and reach advantage over Brown, Brown (4.35 40) is substantially faster than Allison (4.67 40). MVS should see a bit of Brown in the slot, and when outside he'll face Byron Jones (83.3 PFF) and Chidobe Awuzie (66.1 PFF). Jones should primarily play on the right, so he may be MVS' primary outside assignment if MVS' left/right splits to this point hold. Awuzie is competent but the far preferable target on the left side of the defense. It's not clear whether Allen Lazard or Darrius Shepherd will be the new WR3 in Adams' absence, but for what it's worth Lazard is more of an outside receiver and Shepherd more of a slot target.

Upgrade: N/A

Downgrade: Geronimo Allison, Darrius Shepherd

Even: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Allen Lazard

KC vs IND

KANSAS CITY WR SNAPS

Sammy Watkins: 267 snaps – 60 wide (28 left, 32 right), 191 slot (94 left, 97 right), 12 tight (three left, nine right), four back

Demarcus Robinson: 237 snaps – 149 wide (91 left, 58 right), 74 slot (39 left, 35 right), 10 tight (four left, six right), four back

Mecole Hardman: 193 snaps – 66 wide (35 left, 31 right), 105 slot (57 left, 48 right), six tight (two left, four right), 16 back

Sammy Watkins (shoulder) is expected to play despite being listed as questionable on the injury report, and if active he should again serve as the lead Kansas City slot receiver. If so, he should see primarily see Kenny Moore (65.2 PFF) in the slot, but there's nothing intimidating about that. Mecole Hardman should see some of Moore as Kansas City's second-most active slot wideout, and he should to a lesser extent see a relatively even split of Pierre Desir (73.1 PFF) and rookie Rock Ya-Sin (N/A PFF). Desir has received substantially lower grades to this point in 2019 (58.7) than last year, and is questionable to play with a hamstring issue that restricted him to one limited practice on Friday. Ya-Sin (60.8 in 2019) is healthy but still probably an underdog against Demarcus Robinson, who runs more on the left than the right. It also must be noted that the Colts are without safety Malik Hooker another week, potentially leaving all the corners more vulnerable.

Upgrade: Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson, Mecole Hardman

Downgrade: N/A

Even: N/A
 

 

INDIANAPOLIS WR SNAPS

T.Y. Hilton: 155 snaps – 98 wide (40 left, 58 right), 55 slot (22 left, 33 right), one tight (one right), one back

Deon Cain: 138 snaps – 115 wide (61 left, 54 right), 22 slot (13 left, nine right), one tight (one right)

Zach Pascal: 137 snaps – 43 wide (29 left, 14 right), 79 slot (35 left, 44 right), nine tight (three left, six right), six back

Chester Rogers: 134 snaps – 17 wide (five left, 12 right), 108 slot (43 left, 65 right), eight tight (two left, six right), one back

Parris Campbell: 114 snaps – 40 wide (17 left, 23 right), 66 slot (28 left, 38 right), three tight (three right), five back 

T.Y. Hilton (quadriceps) might be able to return after missing last week, and if so he should continue seeing relatively even left/right splits, with nearly twice as many snaps outside as in the slot, where Chester Rogers plays almost exclusively. Rogers should therefore see the most of Kendall Fuller (70.2 PFF), the most feared of the three regular Kansas City corners. The outside corners are more vulnerable, but it's not clear how their snaps will split up in light of Morris Claiborne (60.3 PFF) returning from suspension. The general assumption appears to be that Claiborne will eventually replace Charvarius Ward (65.5 PFF) at left corner, but right corner Bashaud Breeland (57.2 PFF) had the lower PFF coverage grade both last year and in 2019 (59.1 to 57.6). Hilton, Deon Cain, and Zach Pascal should all see looks against these corners, though Pascal's heavier slot splits make him most likely of the three to see the previously mentioned Fuller.

Upgrade: T.Y. Hilton, Deon Cain

Downgrade: Chester Rogers

Even: Zach Pascal, Parris Campbell

SF vs CLE

SAN FRANCISCO WR SNAPS

Marquise Goodwin: 137 snaps – 37 wide (16 left, 21 right), 88 slot (39 left, 49 right), seven tight (two left, five right), five back

Deebo Samuel: 127 snaps – 47 wide (32 left, 15 right), 69 slot (48 left, 21 right), one tight (one left), 10 back

Richie James: 85 snaps – 13 wide (eight left, five right), 63 slot (27 left, 36 right), four tight (four left), five back

Dante Pettis: 70 snaps – 24 wide (17 left, seven right), 43 slot (28 left, 15 right), three back

Kendrick Bourne: 62 snaps – 20 wide (seven left, 13 right), 38 slot (17 left, 21 right), two tight (one left, one right), two back

The 49ers wideout rotation seems fluid, especially with Dante Pettis seeing an increased workload in the last two games. Pettis' alignment numbers look similar to those of Deebo Samuel, with more snaps on the left than right and about 1.5 times as many slot snaps as outside snaps, so their interests might be at odds if Kyle Shanahan doesn't otherwise reconfigure the alignment tendencies of his receivers. Marquise Goodwin, by slight contrast, has played a little bit more inside and on the right than Pettis and Samuel. Cutting the snaps for Richie James and Kendrick Bourne would be another way to clear up some more right-side snaps to get both Samuel and Pettis over 40 snaps in a game, but it's not clear whether that's on the table for Shanahan. In the meantime, if past trends hold in this setting, we can expect Samuel and Pettis to mostly test the left side of the field, where they should see a lot of T.J. Carrie (63.9 PFF) if both Greedy Williams (hamstring) and Denzel Ward (hamstring) are out again. The right corner in that scenario would likely be Terrance Mitchell (64.3 PFF) while whoever is in the slot should see Eric Murray (68.2 PFF). All three Cleveland corners are replacement-level at best.

Upgrade: N/A

Downgrade: N/A

Even: Marquise Goodwin, Deebo Samuel, Dante Pettis, Richie James, Kendrick Bourne


 

CLEVELAND WR SNAPS

Odell Beckham: 261 snaps – 190 wide (106 left, 84 right), 67 slot (37 left, 30 right), two tight (one left, one right), two back

Jarvis Landry: 253 snaps – 50 wide (19 left, 31 right), 191 slot (100 left, 91 right), seven tight (four left, three right), five back

Damion Ratley: 175 snaps – 126 wide (63 left, 63 right), 47 slot (22 left, 25 right), two tight (two left)

The 49ers are without one of their starting boundary corners in Ahkello Witherspoon, and it's not clear how they'll replace him. They could just give slot corner K'Wuan Williams (66.0 PFF) all the base formation snaps opposite Richard Sherman (68.1 PFF), but they could also give the base snaps to Emmanuel Moseley (N/A PFF), who has earned a respectable 2019 PFF coverage grade of 66.3 on an inconclusive 36 coverage snaps. Playing slightly more on the left and primarily outside, Odell Beckham will either see shadow coverage from Sherman, or he'll see a relatively even split between Sherman and Moseley. Beckham might also see Williams in the slot a fair amount, though Williams should more so see a lot of Jarvis Landry. Damion Ratley's situation is similar to Beckham's. It's not clear what the introduction of Antonio Callaway might mean for the offense as the second-year wideout makes his 2019 debut from a four-game suspension, but he mostly played outside in 2018.

Upgrade: Jarvis Landry

Downgrade: N/A

Even: Odell Beckham, Damion Ratley, Antonio Callaway

Want to Read More?
Subscribe to RotoWire to see the full article.

We reserve some of our best content for our paid subscribers. Plus, if you choose to subscribe you can discuss this article with the author and the rest of the RotoWire community.

Get Instant Access To This Article Get Access To This Article
RotoWire Community
Join Our Subscriber-Only NFL Chat
Chat with our writers and other RotoWire NFL fans for all the pre-game info and in-game banter.
Join The Discussion
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Mario Puig
Mario is a Senior Writer at RotoWire who primarily writes and projects for the NFL and college football sections.
NFL Week 12 Picks, Predictions, Props and Best Bets for Every Game
NFL Week 12 Picks, Predictions, Props and Best Bets for Every Game
Thursday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Browns vs. Steelers
Thursday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Browns vs. Steelers
NFL Game Previews: Steelers-Browns Matchup
NFL Game Previews: Steelers-Browns Matchup
Jeff on VSiN:  Week 12 Betting Picks
Jeff on VSiN: Week 12 Betting Picks