This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Picks for Circa Survivor and Circa Millions, Week 3
We're back in business for Week 3. It was a glorious kick-off week for yours truly, but like most bettors I got slaughtered last weekend. Johnny V is looking for a nice comeback after hitting two really sexy College Football parlays on Saturday. Let's roll.
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Denver Broncos (+225) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5) | Total: 40.5
I almost shed a tear watching Tampa's first game of the year against Washington. A late afternoon 4:25 start time on the west coast of Florida on a "relaxing" Sunday hanging out at some cool bars on South Howard. Just good vibes and happiness all around. That's what I used to do - at least for the 2021 season - when I lived down there. Reminiscing aside, this contest is shaping up to be extremely interesting from point of view.
The Buccaneers are 2-0 to start 2024. If you remember correctly from my preseason article, I had them winning the NFC South over Atlanta. Now the Bucs have a real shot to start out 3-0 for the first time since 2005 when they began that campaign 4-0. A big reason why has been former number one pick, Baker Mayfield, finally finding his new home in the 813. Mayfield enjoyed a breakout campaign in his first season as a Buc with over 4,000 pass yards and a 28 TD/10 INT ratio.
Thus far in '24, he's sitting at five tuddies to only one pick with nearly a 74% completion rate. The Tampa offense is definitely lethal with the WR combo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, both of whom have had at least 1,000 yards in each of the last three seasons. Rachaad White and rookie Bucky Irving have provided a strong backfield tandem as well.
The Denver defense is still solid, led by standout CB Patrick Surtain II, though it's not the same unit from the last few seasons. It's not definite, but I would imagine Evans will see a lot of Surtain, which could pose a somewhat difficult matchup. That would mean Godwin can continue is reign of terror to start the season (200 yards and two scores already). However, it would be prudent for the Bucs to try and replicate the formula of Seattle and Pittsburgh who beat the Broncos with heavy ground attacks leading the way. Both of those offenses skated to 140+ rush yards.
Defensively, the unit that had lost a lot coming into the year is a bit more hindered for this contest. Two of their three best players on that side of the ball will miss this one. DT Vita Vea and S Antoine Winfield are big losses. Luckily, the Broncos offense has shown virtually no signs of resembling an NFL caliber unit with rookie Bo Nix severely struggling. This Tampa defense held Washington to 20 points and Detroit to 16, so I'm sure HC Todd Bowles will have something figured out.
After the public and favorites got smoked last week, I think the tide turns for them in Week 3. Tampa is the better team and playing at home doesn't hurt. The only concern is the potential for a look-ahead spot with Philly on the slate next Sunday. And the danger of a closing Royal Mint spot. That aside, I think it should be one way traffic for the Buccaneers in a low-scoring affair.
Picks: Bucs -6 and U41, each at -110 on DraftKings (not a parlay)
Circa Millions Week 3
Last week was brutal for the kid. 1-4 is a disaster when trying to chase down the million dollar top prize. Through my calculations, I have found that hitting about 67% of your picks will put you in strong content to win it all. That means you need to win about 60 of your 90 selections, averaging over three wins per week. This is a big time for a bounce back.
Pick 1: Steelers -1.5
Coming into the year, I did not think I would be looking too closely at playing the Steelers, but here we are. This ended up being one of the five most popular selections of the week among players. Their menacing defense should be able to stifle a Chargers offense that has gotten by on playing the Raiders and Panthers. Justin Herbert is banged up and this is an extended road trip on the east coast. The Steelers offense isn't great, but if they can score 14 points, I think they have a solid chance to win. If they score 17, then it looks really good. Time for LAC to come back to Earth.
Pick 2: Bucs -6.5
See Above.
Pick 3: Lions -3
Every week I've been on the Lions. That will probably be a common theme with me throughout the year. I think it's a great rebound spot for Detroit. Coming off a bad home loss, they'll see an Arizona team riding high off thrashing the Rams. It should be a regression to the mean spot for both teams. The physicality for the Lions on both lines should matchup well against a Cardinals team that can be pushed around. Detroit is also 8-0 ATS and SU off a loss in the Dan Campbell era.
Pick 4: Ravens -1
Pick 5: Jaguars +5.5
Jacksonville is running a Royal Mint spot at the moment. On the books, they've actually seen some action come in on them. The Jags have a lot of work to do to prove they're a legit AFC threat, but I'm still of the belief that the Bills are a pretender. On paper, it is a good spot for Buffalo at home with extra rest, but their defense can be had. I don't expect the Jags shaky secondary to stop Buffalo, just slow them down enough. The big "IF" for the Jags defense is if they can stop the run, which I believe will ultimately decide the game. But hey, we usually see some crazy stuff on Monday Night Football.
Circa Survivor Picks
Unfortunately, I took an early and shocking exit in this contest that started out with 14,266 entries. With over 10,000 cut in the first two weeks, this pool has been exciting thus far. My two picks got clipped last week thanks to a no-show from the 49ers and a typical Baltimore meltdown. Sure, I'm beaten up over it, especially after making an epic run last season with just one entry, but it is what it is. I wish I could have stayed in a bit longer for you guys, so I am sorry about that.
I couldn't stand not having any survivor action, so I joined a Draft King's pool for one entry. This week, I'm on Tampa.
For the rest of my action, make sure you check me out on Twitter and my discord. Best of luck this weekend.
