Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 4

Last week wasn't great -- 7-9 ATS, 2-3 in the Supercontest, and I lost my best bet (Saints.) At least the Patriots-Raiders game went how I thought it would. 

This is a strange week for a couple reasons: (1) The COVID situation with the Titans and potentially the Vikings which could get the Titans-Steelers game moved or postponed; and (2) The insanely high totals -- of the 16 games on the slate, nine of them are above 50. 

I especially like the Packers, Texans and Raiders, and am lukewarm the rest of my picks. I'm almost positive I'm wrong on the Buccaneers, in fact, but I'm sticking to my process of setting the line before looking at the real number. 

For the podcast version of the article click here.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Broncos -1 at Jets

I made this line a pick 'em, so I'm ever-so-slightly on the Jets, though I much preferred it when it was Broncos minus three. In any event, back to the well with Sam Darnold and Adam Gase. 

Jets 20 - 19

EARLY GAMES

Colts -2.5 at Bears

I made this Colts plus 2.5, so I'm on the Bears, but realize that that five-point difference around zero (-2.5 to plus 2.5) is probably less important than the half point difference between 2.5 and 3. Even so, I'll fade Philip Rivers as a road favorite against a good defense. Take Chicago. 

Bears 23 - 20

Saints -4 at Lions

It feels wrong to jump off the Saints here, but four on the road is a little too much against a Lions team that can move the ball. Take the home dog. 

Saints 27 - 24

Cardinals -3.5 at Panthers

I made this line three, so I'm on the Panthers, who have been a credible bad team this year unlike, say the Jets and Giants. Kyler Murray is a great fantasy player, but a little herky-jerky and inconsistent in real life for my taste. Take the points. 

Cardinals 26 - 23

Jaguars +3 at Bengals

I have a Bengals feeling here, so I set the line at 3.5 and am taking them. The wheels seemed to come off for Jacksonville last week against Miami. 

Bengals 27 - 23

Browns +4.5 at Cowboys

I made this Cowboys minus 7.5, so this one was easy for me. The Dallas defense isn't good, but it can pressure Baker Mayfield into mistakes, and Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense typically plays well at home. Lay the wood. 

Cowboys 33 - 27

Vikings +3.5 at Texans

I had this line at 6.5, so I'm firmly on the Texans, who are 0-3 mostly due to a brutal schedule. The Vikings defense is bad now, and they'll have to try to keep up in a shootout. Take the Texans. 

Texans 31 - 24

Seahawks -6.5 at Dolphins

I made this line seven, which puts me on the Seahawks. I love the new version where Russell Wilson gets to throw, but there is no longer trip for a road game, and the Dolphins offense should move the ball. 

Seahawks 34 - 27

Chargers +7 at Buccaneers

I had this line at eight, so I'm on the Bucs, but it's probably a mistake. The Bucs defense is pretty good, but Tom Brady and the offense haven't really found their rhythm yet. I'm laying the wood, but don't feel great about. 

Buccaneers 24 - 16

Steelers -2 at Titans

Who knows if this game will even be played due to the positive COVID tests, or whether the Titans will be able to practice leading up to it. That said, I had it as Steelers +2.5 originally -- why are they significantly better than a 3-0 Titans team that made the AFC title game last year? -- so I'll take the home dog. 

Titans 26 - 24

Ravens -13 at Football Team

I made the line 11.5, so I guess I'm on the Football Team. I expect the Ravens to bounce back, and Dwayne Haskins is terrible, but this is a massive number on the road. 

Ravens 27 - 16

LATE GAMES

Giants +13 at Rams

This is exactly where I set the line, so it's a coin flip for me. I'll be a homer and take the Giants, but don't do this at home. 

Rams 30 - 19

Patriots +7 at Chiefs

I made this line 4.5 as Cam Newton is good, the Patriots offensive line is improving and Bill Belichick specializes in slowing down the league's unstoppable offenses. Take the points. 

Chiefs 29 - 24

Bills -3 at Raiders

The Bills have looked good early on, thanks to improvement from Josh Allen, but I'll take the points here. The Raiders are solid, and I don't like Buffalo traveling cross country after a last-second, emotional win. 

Raiders 24 - 23

SUNDAY NIGHT

Eagles +7 at 49ers

I have no idea who's playing for the 49ers -- is Jimmy Garoppolo back? What about George Kittle and Raheem Mostert? Even so, I made this line exactly seven, and this is a coin flip. I don't want to take the Eagles, who have been awful, but I'll hold my nose. 

49ers 26 - 20

MONDAY NIGHT

Falcons +7 at Packers

I'm sure I'll be wrong on this because it seems too obvious to me. Why are the Falcons only getting seven on the road against a Packers team that looks like it's re-discovered peak Aaron Rodgers? Take Green Bay. 

Packers 35 - 24

For the podcast version of the article click here.

I went 7-9 last week to bring my season-long record to 25-23, lost my best bet (Saints, 2-1) and went 2-3 in the Supercontest to go 6-8-1 overall. Last year, I finished 127-123-6 on the regular season, 8-9 on best bets and 43-40-2 in the Super Contest. In 2018, I went 141-106-9 on the season, 10-7 on best bets, 48-36-1 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2019, I've gone 2,690-2,496 (51.9%), not including ties.