Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 3

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I went 6-10 last week, but I'm not especially troubled by it. I didn't have a best bet because I didn't feel strongly about the games, and Week 2 is an odd mix of small samples (one game) and old samples (last year's games.)

This week, I feel better about the slate and actually have three best bets: the Colts, Eagles and Cardinals.

Coin flips were the Steelers-Rams, Bucs-Texans, Bills-Dolphins, Broncos-Lions and Chiefs-Packers.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Redskins +4 at Giants

The Giants have gifted away two games, while the Redskins have held their own against ostensibly decent teams. That said, I don't like the setup here for Washington, and I expect the Giants both to attack downfield and create some turnovers against Kirk Cousins. Back New York.

Giants 27 - 20

EARLY GAMES

Steelers -1.5 at Rams

My first instinct was to take the Rams at home even though the Steelers offense looked strong last week at home against the Niners, and I'll stick with it. I expect the Rams to get pressure on Ben Roethlisberger, and Nick Foles should move the ball against that weak secondary.

Rams 27 - 24

Chargers +2.5 at Vikings

I don't have a strong lean on this game, but I think Philip Rivers is much better than Teddy Bridgewater at this stage, and that's enough for me. Back the Chargers.

Chargers 23 - 20

Buccaneers +6.5 at Texans

This seems like a lot of points to lay for a team that's 0-2 and starting Ryan Mallet at quarterback. Back the Bucs.

Texans 21 - 19

Eagles +2.5 at Jets

I think the Eagles are a good buy-low off the disaster last week. For whatever reason Dallas crushed them just like they did a couple years ago, but the Eagles bounced back quickly. The Jets are a tough opponent, but I think the Eagles show up and win outright.

Eagles 23 - 17

Saints +6 at Panthers

This line's been jumping around based on Drew Brees' questionable availability, but as of this moment, it's at six, and I'll grab it there. If Brees doesn't play, or worse yet, we get the version that played against the Bucs, I'm laying the wood. Back the Panthers.

Panthers 27 - 17

Jaguars +13.5 at Patriots

The Patriots offense has been unstoppable through two games, but one was against a weak Steelers defense and the other was against a Rex Ryan-led Bills squad against whom they wanted to rub it in. I expect the Jaguars to move the ball, and barring a late Blake Bortles pick-six (something I could see happening) I think the Jaguars cover.

Patriots 31 - 24

Bengals +2.5 at Ravens

The Bengals look like the better team early on, but home field is a big deal here, and the Ravens are laying less than the full three. Back Baltimore.

Ravens 24 - 20

Raiders +3.5 at Browns

I'm not happy Josh McCown is starting, but I'll fade the Raiders on the road off their big win last week. Take the Browns.

Browns 19 - 13

Colts -3.5 at Titans

The Colts are probably the dumbest team in the league from the GM down, but I expect them to light up Ken Whisenhunt's Titans this week. Back Indy.

Colts 37 - 23

Falcons -1 at Cowboys

The Cowboys somehow throttled the Eagles without Tony Romo for much of the game and Dez Bryant for all of it, but I don't think they're good enough defensively to keep it up. Back Atlanta.

Falcons 23 - 20

LATE GAMES

49ers +6.5 at Cardinals

The Cardinals seem like a good team on both sides of the ball, and the Niners defense was badly exposed last week at Pittsburgh. Lay the wood.

Cardinals 31 - 17

Bears +14.5 at Seahawks

I don't usually like to take double-digit favorites, but Kam Chancellor is back, and at 0-2, the Seahawks will play like desperate animals against a weak Bears team. Back Seattle.

Seahawks 37 - 9

Bills +3 at Dolphins

This game strikes me as a coin flip. I'll take the Dolphins because I don't know what to make of Tyrod Taylor yet.

Dolphins 23 - 19

SUNDAY NIGHT

Broncos -3 at Lions

Matthew Stafford is banged up, and the Broncos are a tough defense against whom to figure things out. But I have a Lions feeling - I think the defense will get to Peyton Manning and keep it close. Back Detroit.

Lions 24 - 23

MONDAY NIGHT

Chiefs +7 at Packers

This is the right line. My slight lean is with the Packers at home where Aaron Rodgers plays nearly flawlessly. Lay the points.

Packers 31 - 23

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I went 6-10 in Week 2 to bring my record to 14-17-1 on the year. I'm 1-0 on best bets. I went 135-116-5 in 2014, and best bets were 18-12-1. From 1999-2014, I've gone 2,068-1,880 (52.4%), not including ties.