This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
I went 10-6 last week, and sadly I think it's the first time I've gotten to double-digits this year. I also split on best bets, winning with the Packers, but losing with the Cardinals to bring my record on those to 7-8-2.
The other two teams I liked, the Panthers and Browns, rolled, and I went 2-1 on coin flips.
This week, I especially like the Raiders, Jets, Giants and Steelers. None are best bets, but I might change my mind in the comments.
Coin flips are the Bears-Vikings, Cardinals-Eagles, Lions-Saints and Buccaneers-Rams.
For the podcast version of this article, click here.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Buccaneers +2 at Rams
I don't like this game, but I'll fade last week's results as the Bucs stop the run, and the Rams can't pass. Take Tampa.
Buccaneers 20 - 17
SATURDAY NIGHT
Jets -3 at Cowboys
The Cowboys don't have much of a home-field advantage, and so the question is whether the Jets are three points better on what's roughly a neutral field. I think the answer is yes. Lay the points.
Jets 27 - 17
EARLY GAMES
Bears +5.5 at Vikings
The Vikings looked great in Arizona on Thursday night, but I like this to be a tight matchup between two division rivals that know each other well. Take the points.
Vikings 23 - 20
Falcons +3 at Jaguars
The Falcons have been an auto-fade for so long, and it works every week. At some point they'll be treated like the doormat
I went 10-6 last week, and sadly I think it's the first time I've gotten to double-digits this year. I also split on best bets, winning with the Packers, but losing with the Cardinals to bring my record on those to 7-8-2.
The other two teams I liked, the Panthers and Browns, rolled, and I went 2-1 on coin flips.
This week, I especially like the Raiders, Jets, Giants and Steelers. None are best bets, but I might change my mind in the comments.
Coin flips are the Bears-Vikings, Cardinals-Eagles, Lions-Saints and Buccaneers-Rams.
For the podcast version of this article, click here.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Buccaneers +2 at Rams
I don't like this game, but I'll fade last week's results as the Bucs stop the run, and the Rams can't pass. Take Tampa.
Buccaneers 20 - 17
SATURDAY NIGHT
Jets -3 at Cowboys
The Cowboys don't have much of a home-field advantage, and so the question is whether the Jets are three points better on what's roughly a neutral field. I think the answer is yes. Lay the points.
Jets 27 - 17
EARLY GAMES
Bears +5.5 at Vikings
The Vikings looked great in Arizona on Thursday night, but I like this to be a tight matchup between two division rivals that know each other well. Take the points.
Vikings 23 - 20
Falcons +3 at Jaguars
The Falcons have been an auto-fade for so long, and it works every week. At some point they'll be treated like the doormat they actually are. While the Jaguars aren't good, they're not as bad as Atlanta, and they're only laying three at home. Take Jacksonville.
Jaguars 27 - 23
Texans pick 'em* at Colts
There's no line yet for this T.J. Yates vs. Matt Hasselbeck division-title showdown, so I made one up. The Texans have the better team, but the Colts are at home, and J.J. Watt is playing with a broken hand. I have no idea here, but I guess I'll take Houston.
Texans 17 - 16
* made up line
Chiefs -7.5 at Ravens
The Chiefs don't do anything more than they have to, and Matt Schaub should allow the Ravens to move the ball a little bit. I'll take the home dog.
Chiefs 17 - 10
Bills -1 at Redskins
The Redskins are probably the value here, but I have a Bills feeling. Back Buffalo.
Bills 24 - 21
Titans +14 at Patriots
Normally, I'll take the dog when there's a double-digit line, but the Patriots don't take their foot off the gas when they're winning 20-7 in the fourth quarter, and that makes them more likely to cover than most big favorites. Lay the wood.
Patriots 34 - 17
Panthers -5.5 at Giants
This line is about right, but the Giants usually play to the level of their competition - they had the then undefeated Patriots beat before Tom Coughlin botched the clock management a few weeks ago. If the Panthers are to lose a game the rest of the way, this is it. Back the Giants.
Giants 24 - 23
LATE GAMES
Browns +14.5 at Seahawks
The Browns are especially bad against the run, so Seattle might have enough success with Bryce Brown (or Christine Michael) to play it conservatively. Plus, Johnny Manziel looked good to me last week. Take the points.
Seahawks 27 - 16
Packers -3 at Raiders
The Packers lucked into a win against the Lions and then beat a terrible Cowboys team at home. I'm not buying them as three-point favorites against a scrappy Oakland team on the road. Back the Raiders.
Raiders 24 - 20
Dolphins +1.5 at Chargers
The Dolphins are horrible, but they're getting points on what amounts to a neutral field. Take Miami.
Dolphins 27 - 20
Broncos +6 at Steelers
The Broncos offense is terrible, and the Steelers offense is good enough to move the ball on anyone. Lay the wood.
Steelers 24 - 13
Bengals -4.5 at 49ers
This is a big number for the AJ McCarron Bengals against a 49ers team that's been much better at home. Take the points.
Bengals 16 - 13
SUNDAY NIGHT
Cardinals -3.5 at Eagles
The Cardinals would have been a no-brainer a couple weeks ago, but the Eagles have rallied while Arizona played poorly against the Vikings on Thursday night. I don't want to overvalue recent results, but the Cardinals aren't as good on the road, and Sam Bradford is appreciably better than Mark Sanchez. I'll take the points.
Cardinals 23 - 20
MONDAY NIGHT
Lions +3 at Saints
I could go either way here, but I think the Hail Mary against Green Bay destroyed the Lions, and the Saints are usually better at home. Take New Orleans.
Saints 28 - 24
For the podcast version of this article, click here.
I went 10-6 in Week 14 to bring my record to 93-109-6 on the year. I'm 7-8-2 on best bets. I went 135-116-5 in 2014, and best bets were 18-12-1. From 1999-2014, I've gone 2,068-1,880 (52.4%), not including ties.
