Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 15

Last week I went 6-9-1, but some of that was bad luck on the coin-flip games (1-4-1). Otherwise, I went 5-5, though I did lose my best bet, the Bucs, bringing my season-long record on those to 17-12-1.

This week, I struggled especially on PIT-ATL, IND-HOU, CIN-CLE, MIN-DET and DEN-SD. I don't have any best bets as yet, but I reserve the right to add some in the comments.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Cardinals +4.5 at Rams

I initially liked the Rams here, but this line keeps moving up. Still, I'll lay the points against Drew Stanton on the road as the book is begging us to take the 10-3 Cardinals. Back St. Louis.

Rams 23 - 16

EARLY GAMES

Raiders +10 at Chiefs

The Raiders beat the Chiefs two weeks ago in Oakland, but I think Kansas City blows them out at home this time around, especially with the Raiders coming off a win against the checked-out Colin Kaepernick. Back KC.

Chiefs 27 - 13

Jaguars +13.5 at Ravens

When the lines get this big, I usually take the dog, but the Jaguars should probably be an exception. Back the Ravens.

Ravens 30 - 13

Steelers -2.5 at Falcons

If I knew for sure Julio Jones were playing, I'd take the Falcons. But I don't, and we won't find out until after this pick is in. Without Jones, I think the Steelers cover. So if we say Jones' chances are 50/50, this is a coin flip. Because I'm rooting for Jones to come back for my Steak League team, I'll take Atlanta, but that should tell you the level of conviction I have.

Falcons 24 - 23

Texans +6.5 at Colts

I'd like this a good deal more at seven, but I think the Texans will hang around, especially if Arian Foster can get going. Back Houston.

Colts 27 - 21

Bengals pick 'em at Browns

The Browns destroyed the Bengals in their own building a few weeks ago, but that was without A.J. Green. Of course, it was also without Josh Gordon and Johnny Manziel. I want to root for the Browns, but I have a nagging Bengals feeling. Back Cincy.

Bengals 20 - 16

Dolphins +7.5 at Patriots

The Dolphins beat up on the Pats the first time around, but that might as well have been in a different century. The Patriots are a much better team now, and they're especially tough at home in December. Nonetheless, I think the Dolphins will slug it out and hang around. Take the points.

Patriots 24 - 17

Buccaneers +3.5 at Panthers

I was wrong about the Bucs last week, but I like them here getting more than a FG against a bad defense and an offense without its starting QB. Back Tampa.

Buccaneers 24 - 23

Redskins +6.5 at Giants

That's a lot of wood for a bad team like the Giants to lay, but if there's anyone more checked out than Kaepernick, it's Robert Griffin. Back the Giants.

Giants 31 - 10

Packers -5 at Bills

This is a big number even for the Packers against a solid Bills team in Buffalo. Plus Green Bay has been much better at home this year. Back the Bills.

Packers 27 - 23

LATE GAMES

Vikings +7.5 at Lions

This is probably the right line. The Lions offense is playing better of late, but teams are moving the ball more on their defense too. Back Minnesota.

Lions 27 - 20

Jets -1.5 at Titans

Am I really contemplating laying points on the road with the Jets? Yes, I am, as the Titans might be the worst team in the NFL right now, and Geno Smith played well in Minnesota last week. Back NY.

Jets 24 - 17

Broncos -4 at Chargers

The Chargers might have covered at home against the Patriots last week but for Mike McCoy's insistence on punting when he should have gone for it on fourth down. I think this game will be similarly competitive. Back the Chargers.

Broncos 28 - 27

49ers +10 at Seahawks

The 49ers are so obviously the sharp play here, but Colin Kaepernick doesn't look like he wants to be out there anymore. The question is whether he somehow rises to the occasion in Seattle, or the Seahawks bury him completely. Based on what I saw in the Raiders game, I'll say it's the latter. Back Seattle.

Seahawks 24 - 0

SUNDAY NIGHT

Cowboys +3.5 at Eagles

It's possible the Thanksgiving game wasn't a good reflection of these teams as Dallas had a Sunday night game before it, and Tony Romo wasn't right due to his back injury. Now Dallas has had 10 days off, so Romo should be in better shape. That said, I like the Eagles to bounce back off a loss and to find ways to exploit the Cowboys defense. Back Philly.

Eagles 27 - 20

MONDAY NIGHT

Saints -3 at Bears

I know I wrote Jay Cutler looked checked out, and he does, but unlike Kaepernick who's in Seattle, Cutler gets the Saints at home. Back Chicago.

Bears 27 - 24

I went 6-9-1 in Week 14 to put me at 109-96-3 on the season. Best bets are 17-12-1. From 1999-2013 I've gone 1,933-1,764 (52.3%), not including ties.