Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 12

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I went 7-6-1 last week, which isn't especially helping my cause, and there's a good chance the clock runs out before I can make a run back to .500. While I hope that's not the case, either way, there's been a big silver lining to this season - the flourishing of the comment section. Maybe it happens anyway if I were having a good year, but it makes more sense for commenters to chime in with winning picks if mine are lagging. So please, keep posting picks and exchanging angles on these games - it's been a huge value-add for all the readers.

This week, I especially like the Texans (count it as a best bet), the Steelers and the Ravens (see below.) The ones that gave me the most trouble were the Jets-Dolphins, Chiefs-Bills and Raiders-Titans.

THANKSGIVING DAY

Eagles +2.5 at Lions

My first instinct was to take the Eagles as a buy low, but Dalton Del Don temporarily swayed me on the podcast by pointing out how well Detroit's defense has played the last couple weeks and how the Eagles might have packed it in. But as it stands Philly is only one game behind the Giants, beat them in their head to head matchup and still has a game against them on the schedule, i.e., with six games to go they control their own destiny. I'll take the points.

Eagles 20 - 19

Panthers +1 at Cowboys

I've been fading the Panthers all year, so why stop now? The Cowboys with Tony Romo are a playoff-quality team, and while the Panthers are probably better, I'll take Dallas at home on a short week laying only a point.

Cowboys 24 - 21

Bears +8.5 at Packers

Lambeau Field has been a house of horrors for Jay Cutler, but then again the Lions hadn't won there in several centuries until last week. Maybe the real Packers are back after the convincing win in Minnesota, but the Bears aren't bad, and this is a lot of points. Back Chicago.

Packers 27 - 19

EARLY GAMES

Saints +3 at Texans

I don't want to overthink this. Any time you can fade New Orleans outdoors on the road, you probably should, and especially against a Texans squad that's playing much better of late. Back the Texans.

Texans 33 - 17

Vikings +1 at Falcons

The Vikings were exposed last week, to be sure, but the Falcons lost at home to the Matt Hasselbeck Colts one week after losing to the 49ers. They also lost at home to the Bucs, barely beat the Titans and barely beat the Redskins. Back the Vikings.

Vikings 23 - 20

Rams +9 at Bengals

The Rams looked good for a couple games last month, but I'm starting to think they're a bottom-third team, given their terrible quarterback play and good, but not great defense. I expect the Bengals to bounce back at home. Lay the wood.

Bengals 30 - 13

Buccaneers +3 at Colts

Matt Hasselbeck keeps winning games, but this is a below-average offense with him at the helm, and the defense is nothing about which to write home, either. Take the points.

Buccaneers 24 - 20

Giants -2.5 at Redskins

The Giants are a better team than the Redskins, their defense has played better since Jason Pierre-Paul returned, and they're laying less than a field goal. I expect them to generate some turnovers off Kirk Cousins too. Back the Giants.

Giants 27 - 20

Raiders -1.5 at Titans

I'm wrong about the Raiders every week whether I back or fade them. I would think they're capable of winning this game, but I'm also sure that's the public side, and the line would be bigger were the sharps not on the Titans. I'll take Tennessee.

Raiders 24 - 23

Bills +6 at Chiefs

The Chiefs are playing great, but the Bills haven't been bad - it's not like they got blown out in New England. As long as Tyrod Taylor plays, I think they'll hang around. Back Buffalo.

Chiefs 20 - 17

Dolphins +3.5 at Jets

The Jets strike me as the better team, and while the Dolphins are capable of a surprisingly good game every now and then, I don't want to bet on it. Lay the points.

Jets 27 - 23

Chargers +4 at Jaguars

I picked the Jaguars on the TYT segment, but now I'm having second thoughts. While the Chargers are one of the league's doormats (given all their injuries), laying four with the Jaguars is extreme, and usually it's good to buy low on a team after a massive blowout loss. Still, it was my first instinct, so I'll stick with it. Lay the wood.

Jaguars 24 - 17

LATE GAMES

Cardinals -10.5 at 49ers

The Cardinals are arguably the league's best team (given the Patriots injuries) and playing against its worst. But 10.5 is a massive line for a road team, and the Niners have played better in their own venue. Take San Francisco.

Cardinals 26 - 17

Steelers +4 at Seahawks

That Blaine Gabbert got 7.8 YPA and didn't throw a pick in Seattle last week, and Carson Palmer put up 39 on them the week before shows the Seattle defense isn't remotely what it was the previous two seasons. As such I expect the Steelers to move the ball, and I see this as roughly a 50/50 game. Take the points.

Steelers 27 - 24

SUNDAY NIGHT

Patriots -3 at Broncos

While I have concerns about the current incarnation of the Patriots offense going into Denver, I think Brock Osweiler might have an even tougher time going against the Pats. This should be a close game, but I'll trust Tom Brady and the Pats to make fewer mistakes. Lay the points.

Patriots 19 - 13

MONDAY NIGHT

Ravens +3 at Browns

If you want to hear my ironclad reason for taking the Ravens, click here and fast forward to the 54:30 mark (NSFW). Otherwise, I think Javoris Allen is better than Justin Forsett, the Browns can't stop the run and the Ravens will win this game with their defense and ground game. Take the points.

Ravens 20 - 17

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I went 7-6-1 in Week 11 to bring my record to 68-86-6 on the year. I'm 5-6-2 on best bets. I went 135-116-5 in 2014, and best bets were 18-12-1. From 1999-2014, I've gone 2,068-1,880 (52.4%), not including ties.