Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps the Divisional Round

I went 2-2 last week, winning my best bet, the Steelers. I screwed up with the Raiders - that was giving money away - but I initially liked them and stubbornly stuck to it.

This week, I love the Chiefs at home, and I like the Pats despite the huge line. I picked upsets in the other two, but honestly I could see those going either way.

SATURDAY GAMES

Seahawks +4.5 at Falcons

The Seahawks are considerably worse on the road, and especially so when it's on the east coast for a 10 am body-clock game, a scenario that felled them in the first half of the NFC Championship game last year and in Atlanta a few years ago. But Seattle is fortunate to be playing in the early Saturday game which starts at 4:35 pm ET, so perhaps they'll be more ready to play.

I'm not sure why the Seahawks have struggled so much both in early games and also early in games - during the regular season, Russell Wilson had not thrown a single TD pass in the first quarter all year. It's not like Wilson's out partying.

The Falcons had the best offense in the league this year, and at home, they should move the ball against a Seattle defense that's not itself without Earl Thomas. But given the line, the later start and Seattle's experience in big games, I'll take the points.

Seahawks 27 - 26

Texans +16 at Patriots

Call me a sucker, but anything short of 20, I'm laying the wood here. The Patriots at home in the playoffs coming off a bye against Brock Osweiler is likely to result in a blowout.

Patriots 38 - 13

SUNDAY GAMES

Steelers +2 at Chiefs

I think the Steelers are the better team and one that would have a much better chance to beat the Patriots on a neutral field. Unfortunately, this game is in Arrowhead, and Ben Roethlisberger has been bad on the road for three seasons running while Andy Reid is a master game-planner, nearly unbeatable when coming off a bye week. Moreover, Roethlisberger suffered a minor ankle injury late in Sunday's game that could hamper his already limited mobility. Bottom line, anything less than the full three here is a good price. Lay the wood.

Chiefs 27 - 17

Packers +4.5 at Cowboys

I'd feel a lot better about the Packers if I knew Jordy Nelson (ribs) were at full strength, but that sounds like a long shot. Aaron Rodgers should still be able to move the ball consistently, but the team's top target and best red-zone weapon will be missed. Even so, while Dallas should be able to grind out yards at will against a mediocre Packers defense, I think Rodgers will at the very least keep them in the game. The Cowboys are the better team, but Rodgers is the best player in the world, and ultimately that's enough for me with the points. Back the Packers.

Packers 31 - 27

I went 2-2 in the Wild Card Round. I was 123-128-5 on the season. I'm 3-2 on best bets. I went 114-134-8 and 7-9-3 on best bets in 2015. From 1999-2015, I've gone 2,182-2,014 (52%), not including ties.

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