Beating The Book

Last week was decent -- 11-5 overall, won my best bet (Cowboys) and went 4-1 in the Supercontest. I also got lucky on a few -- miraculous backdoor covers by the Dolphins and Lions, Dan Bailey gifting the cover to the Bucs and even the Chargers coming through for me. I'm not above accepting it, though. 

This week, I particularly like the Broncos, 49ers and Eagles.  

THURSDAY NIGHT

Chargers +3.5 at Raiders

I made this line only three, and while it's playing with fire to bet on the Chargers two weeks in a row, this should be a close game. Take the points. 

Raiders 30 - 27

SATURDAY GAMES

Bills -6.5 at Broncos

I love the Broncos here. The Bills looked great the last two weeks beating the 49ers and Steelers, but it's time to sell high on the road against a scrappy team that usually shows up. Take the points. 

Bills 24 - 23

Panthers +8.5 at Packers

I made this line 10.5, as the Packers are bullies at home against weak teams. There's letdown potential here, and the Panthers should move the ball, but I don't see their defense slowing down Aaron Rodgers' well-oiled machine. Lay the wood. 

Packers 27 - 17

EARLY GAMES

Texans +7 at Colts

I made this line 10.5 and guessed it would be 13, forgetting only two weeks ago the Texans had the ball down six, on the two yard line, with two minutes to go before fumbling the snap. But I'll lay the wood anyway. Take Indy. 

Colts 31 - 20

Lions +10.5 at Titans

If Matthew Stafford is out, this line should be 14-plus. Lay the wood. 

Titans 37 - 17

Buccaneers -6 at Falcons

The Falcons aren't the same team without Julio Jones, but their defense has played better since Dan Quinn was canned, and the Bucs were lucky to beat the Vikings last week on the worst kicking performance of all time. Take the points. 

Buccaneers 24 - 20

Patriots +2.5 at Dolphins

I made this line only 1.5 in part due to Bill Belichick's track record against rookie QBs. Take the points. 

Patriots 20 - 17

Seahawks -5.5 at Football Team

I wanted to take Seattle here, but this is too many points on the road against a good defense. Take the Football Team. 

Seahawks 24 - 23

Bears +3 at Vikings

I wanted to take the Bears here, but the line is so much smaller than I expected. Assuming they can make a 40-yard field goal, give me the Vikings.  

Vikings 26 - 20

Jaguars +13.5 at Ravens

I like fading the Ravens off a big and dramatic win and short week, especially now that Gardner Minshew is back. Take the points. 

Ravens 30 - 20

49ers -3 at Cowboys

The 49ers looked terrible the last two weeks, but this is a get well spot. Lay the wood. 

49ers 27 - 20

LATE GAMES

Jets +17 at Rams

I made this line 17.5, so I'm laying the wood. The Jets need to secure that No. 1 pick, and they won't cut it close again like they did against the Raiders. 

Rams 31- 13

Eagles +6.5 at Cardinals

Jalen Hurts looked like the real thing against the Saints, and the Eagles defense isn't bad. Take the points. 

Eagles 26 - 23

Chiefs -3 at Saints

I made this a pick 'em, thinking Drew Brees might be back, but with Taysom Hill at QB, this is more or less the right line. Give me the Saints to keep it close enough. 

Chiefs 27 - 26

SUNDAY NIGHT

Browns -4 at Giants

I made this minus 2.5, but if Daniel Jones plays, he'll have to get rid of the ball a lot more quickly than he did last week. I'm taking the points, but don't feel great about it. 

Browns 23 - 20 

MONDAY NIGHT

Steelers -12.5 at Bengals

I made this line 10.5, but I'm taking the Steelers anyway. It's a get-well spot after two straight losses, and they'll smash the Bengals here. 

Steelers 33 - 6

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I went 11-5 last week to bring my season-long record to 101-103-4, won my best bet (Cowboys 5-9) and went 4-1 in the Supercontest to go 32-36-1 overall. Last year, I finished 127-123-6 on the regular season, 8-9 on best bets and 43-40-2 in the Super Contest. In 2018, I went 141-106-9 on the season, 10-7 on best bets, 48-36-1 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2019, I've gone 2,690-2,496 (51.9%), not including ties.