This article is part of our The Big Game series.
Welcome to The Big Game, a new recurring article that looks to hone our readers in on the games that, in my admittedly biased opinion, will be the biggest one to watch. We'll weigh the games based on their importance, their competitiveness, and then break down the teams.
The next couple weeks will feature some wild matchups, with a few high profile games all happening simultaneously -- unsurprising considering every league will be playing out their semifinals and finals matches. Of the six series slated to take place before the 27th, though, one caught my eye especially. First, though, I must preface that there will certainly be favoritism shown both this week and in general towards non-LCS regions. I do most of my work covering teams from both China -- where I am the company guru -- and Korea, and as such there will be unabashed favoritism towards teams from those regions when there's so many huge games to choose from all at once.
In this case, though, I don't think it's a sign of favoritism to say that the game to watch is definitely the series between Edward Gaming and Royal Never Give Up, where Royal will fight to hold their LPL title against the seemingly unstoppable EDG. The LCS regions are hosting a bevy of completely uncompetitive games, and while the LCK finals are certainly not the ROX vs. SKT matchup that we expected all season, it's also safe to say that ROX are such overwhelming favorites against KT Rolster that they only earn a nod as an honorable mention.
So without further ado:
The Significance
Last split's LPL Finals saw a battered and weakened Edward lose rather convincingly to Royal Never Give Up in a series that pitted the former's famously measured play against the raw explosiveness that Royal's lineup has become famous for bringing to games. However, that series was also one of the last time Heo "PawN" Won-seok would take the field alongside his teammates, as it was soon revealed that his health issues would again get the best of him. EDG's flawless score in the group stage spoke for itself in justifying the toss-up, and the team looks to be the same Ming "Clearlove" Kai-led juggernaut that fans of the LPL have become used to.
Royal, for their part, have been struggling to adapt to the numerous changes that seem targeted at their playstyle specifically. Their acquisition of Jian "Uzi" Zi-Hao in the offseason made the team a far more ADC-centric team, a questionably valuable trait for a team that was best known for it's aggressive skirmishing, something ADC's tend to have limited impact in. Furthermore, the champion pools of both Liu "mlxg" Shi-yu and Li "Xiaohu" Yuan-Hao have been heavily nerfed since their previous success against EDG, and neither of them have done a particularly good job of adapting to the new demands of their roles. Xiaohu especially stands out here, as while mlxg has seen reasonable success on a couple champions, Xiaohu has yet to recover from the double-whammy nerfs to both Azir and Viktor, leaving him with only his LeBlanc and Karma to fall back onto.
Even outside of the title, this series reads like an ultimate grudge match. Edward have long been considered one of the best teams in the region, yet time and again have seen their playoff runs end unsatisfyingly. Royal will be looking for blood after Edward smashed them in the group stage -- a loss that immediately preceded RNG's spiral into late-season mediocrity -- and with EDG's aura of invulnerability shattered during their very narrow victory over World Elite, Royal may just find the opening to upset EDG once more. Above all, though, both of these teams need to find a convincing win here in order to prove to a very vocal -- and critical -- Chinese fan base that they won't disappoint their region again heading into Worlds. This is an even more pressing concern for RNG, who set their bar for fan's expectations of them quite high during their amazing run at MSI.
The Favorite
Two weeks ago, every analyst in the game would have said that Royal would be lucky to take a single game off EDG. Then Edward barely scraped past their semifinals match against the extremely predictable World Elite, despite soundly winning the early game in every match bar one. While Royal had their own struggles against IMAY in the lower bracket, that was far more expected -- both teams play a high-intensity, chaotic style that lends itself well to five game series filled with explosive games. More worrisomely, two of the games that Edward took off World Elite featured World Elite throwing terribly from huge advantages, something the far more proactive Royal is unlikely to do. While Kim "Deft" Hyuk-kyu and Tian "Meiko" Ye looked characteristically strong, the rest of EDG struggled throughout the whole series, including Clearlove, who should have had no difficulty dispatching the vastly less skilled Ren-Jie "Condi" Xiang.
Additionally, Royal finally managed to get a change in the last patch that heavily favored them as opposed to hurting them: Tower First Blood gold. The change to tower gold completely killed lane swaps overnight, and said laneswaps were an enormously popular tactic against Royal, as it allowed opposing teams to neutralize their dominant top lane, bottom lane, and jungle all at once. It was said swaps that were integral to World Elite's takedown of Royal at the end of the season, the series that finally turned analysts consensus away from RNG as favorites coming into the playoffs. Now the game is finally played the way Royal like it: head-to-head. It's hard to argue that the explosive Royal wouldn't get far more out of this than EDG, especially if Edward's laners continue to underperform as dramatically as we saw against World Elite: if Scout can be solo killed by Xiye, there's no doubt that Xiaohu can do the same.
To try to call a favorite would be folly. Once again, either team could walk out of the arena wearing the crown, and who comes out ahead will depend entirely on who's riding high the night of the games. If IMAY's slaughter of World Elite in the third place match is any indication, though, RNG had to walk the harder road to get there, and may therefore have a slight edge. Betting against Ji "Aaron" Xing and the impeccable coaching he's brought to EDG would always be a poor bet, however, and there's no way to know whether the EDG that shows up a week from now will be the one that 2-0'd RNG last time they met, or the one that could barely sink a team that's usually described as a strictly inferior version of themselves. Were I a betting man, I'd find another game to put my money on, as this one's up in the air up until First Blood gets scored.
