This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Penn State vs. Illinois Best Bets
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Penn State vs. Illinois Betting Odds for Week 3
Spread: Penn State -14.5 (BetMGM Sportsbook); Illinois +14.5 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
Total: 48.5 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Penn State -600 (Caesars Sportsbook); Illinois +475 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
Penn State will cost you six times your potential return in Champaign, and that's way too much risk for not enough reward, especially for a road team. However, it might seem like a certainty betting on such heavy favorites over the long term is a losing strategy. Even including such a heavy favorite as part of a multi-team parlay just sucks all of the value out of your ticket. This is the conference opener for both schools, and it should be an entertaining affair. Penn State will have revenge on its mind after losing 20-18 in Happy Valley in the most recent meeting on Oct. 23, 2021. If you remember that game, Illinois outlasted Penn State in the first 9OT game in NCAA history. Well, in the history of the idiotic overtime rules, as they currently stand today, but don't get me started on that. Prior to that upset, when Penn State entered the No. 7 team in the nation, it had won three in a row in the series and six of the past seven meetings. The last time these teams faced each other in Champaign was a 63-24 tail-beating on Sept. 21, 2018, although the Illini won the previous meeting in Illinois by a 16-14 count on Nov. 22, 2014. I actually attended a game in the press box back on Oct. 22, 2005, and it was one of the coldest games ever. I don't know if the press box has been improved since (I am sure it has), but it was an open-air experience, and it was freezing. After the game, head coach Joe Paterno was speaking downstairs and wiping his nose on the sleeve of his jacket. I don't remember much from the game, but I remember that. Anyhoo...
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Penn State vs. Illinois Betting Picks for Week 3
The Nittany Lions have fired out of the chute with a pair of victories and covers. If you were on West Virginia in the opener, you know all too well that Penn State covered in Week 1, winning 38-15 as a 21-point favorite in a classic bad beat. It was actually a double bad beat, as backup QB Beau Pribula punched in a 5-yard touchdown run to not only flip the side but also the total from Under (48) to Over. Ouch. In Week 2, "We Are" pounded the alma mater of Joe Flacco, winning 63-7 as a 44-point favorite in Happy Valley, taking care of the Over (55.5) themselves; no bad beat needed. This will be the first roadie for Penn State.
On the flip side, Illinois has already tasted defeat this season, and it hasn't been able to figure out a cover. The Illini won 30-28 in the opener against Toledo as a 7.5-point favorite, but there's no shame in that game. The Rockets are the favorites in the MAC and a potential dark horse for a New Year's Day bowl game as a Group of Six member. Head coach Jason Candle's team is GOOD. Impressive win for the blue and orange. However, Illinois went down to Kansas and got pounded 34-23 as a 3.5-point underdog, and a touchdown and 2-point conversion midway through the fourth quarter made it look closer than the game actually was. Total bettors might whine it was a bad beat, as the number was 57 at most shops, but there was so much time left that it's not a definition bad beat. The total has gone high at a 1-0-1 clip for Illinois, with the Illini allowing 31.0 points per game (PPG), and Penn State has hit the Over twice, averaging 50.5 PPG. Look for the total to go high on Saturday afternoon.
Penn State vs. Illinois Expert Pick: Over 48.5 (DraftKings SportsBook)
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Penn State vs. Illinois Predictions for Week 3
The Nittany Lions haven't really been tested yet in a pair of wins over West Virginia and Delaware. If you're looking to build a nice little parlay, I'd prefer buying a half-point or full point, getting Penn State to -13.5 while going high on the total. I think Penn State has the ability to put Illinois into an early hole and run away from the Illini. And real or not, I think Penn State uses the revenge factor after that ridiculous 9OT game as motivation.
Illinois has been very giving defensively, coughing up 31.0 PPG and 477.5 total yards while yielding 224.0 rushing yards per contest. The Penn State offense will be able to move the ball well, as QB Drew Allar has completed 78.2% of his passes for 529 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions while scoring once on the ground, too. He'll be difficult for the Illini to contain. WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith is the go-to receiver and next great in a solid recent history for Penn State at the position. Expect that combination to score at least once, and as an added bonus, you can get Lambert-Smith (+115 Anytime Touchdown Scorer, FanDuel Sportsbook) at plus money.
Illinois QB Luke Altmyer has shown some glimpses of brilliance, hitting 68.5% of his passes for 413 yards and 3 TDs while leading the team in rushing (139 yards, 2 TDs), but he also has three picks in two games and needs to clean that up, especially against opportunistic Penn State D which is plus-2 in turnover ratio. Look for Penn State to roll and for defense on Illinois to get trampled.
