This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
Florida State vs. Duke Betting Odds and Best Bets
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An interesting matchup of ranked teams is set for Saturday evening in Tallahassee. #4 Florida State comes in at 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS, having scored 31 or more points in every game to date while winning by single digits just twice. Their games have gone over the listed number four times. Duke comes in at 5-1 SU with only a late score from Notre Dame causing a blemish. They are also 4-2 ATS, with the total going 2-3-1. Duke hasn't allowed more than 21 points in any game, four times holding opponents to single digits.
Florida State vs. Duke Betting Odds for Week 8
Spread: Florida State -14.5 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Total: 49.5 (Draftkings Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Florida State -650 (Bet MGM); Duke +470 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
While the lines have danced throughout the week, they are pretty universal across all books. As of Friday morning, there aren't any disparities in the spread anywhere. The Seminoles opened at -15.5, dropped to as low as -13.5, and it's now ticked up to its current level.
The total has remained pretty stable, opening at 49.0 and moving up, down, and back up to its current spot, never once hitting 50 or 48.5.
Moneyline-wise, there's next to no opportunity here with Florida State outside of a multi-leg parlay. Duke is sitting as low as +450, so if you're backing an upset, there's no reason not to hunt your best odds and squeeze every last drop out of the books.
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Florida State vs. Duke Betting Picks for Week 8
I'll be frank: this is a very challenging game to bet. Florida State has a massive talent advantage, while Duke is one of, if not the best-coached team in the country. Mike Elko schemes incredibly well and gets far more from his talent than others would. The health of Blue Devils' quarterback Riley Leonard is paramount. He's expected to play, but coming off a rather severe high ankle sprain, it's fair to question his mobility, which is key to his game. If he's limited or reinjured, Duke is in trouble. Backup Henry Belin was just 4-for-12 as a replacement starter.
Duke is allowing 9.8 ppg, 3.96 ypc and just 4.96 ypa with an amazing 3:5 TD:INT ratio. Florida State averages 42.2 ppg, 5.46 ypc and 8.6 ypa with a 16:1 TD:INT ratio. It's an incredible matchup of athleticism versus coaching and a clear strength-on-strength battle.
I have minimal confidence in any side of the betting options. If you back the 'Noles, I'd jump in now just in case we get a negative report on Leonard's availability, as that will push this number way up. The current number seems to assume his availability, and if I trust his health, I'll back the Blue Devils to find a way to keep this respectable and back them with more than two touchdowns. As such, I expect Duke will find ways to score a few points. Florida State can be vulnerable against the rush, allowing 209 yards to Virginia Tech, who has a mobile quarterback. And for as much as I love Elko and the Blue Devil defense, Florida State has too much firepower to be completely shut down. They'll score and force Duke to try to keep pace at times. They are also capable of blowing this total up by themselves, even if that's unlikely, given the matchup. Duke finding success on the ground could limit FSU's possessions, which honestly should be the game plan. But it also means both teams are scoring.
Florida State vs. Duke Best Bet: Over 49.5 points at DraftKings Sportsbook
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Florida State vs. Duke Predictions for Week 8
As noted above, I think this is an incredibly difficult game to bet, as I think the numbers are set perfectly. For as much as I respect Duke's team and the job Elko is doing every single week, they just don't have the horses to withstand Florida State for four quarters.
It oftentimes feels like smoke and mirrors with the Blue Devil offense, and that's not good enough here. The defense will keep them in it for a while, but too many chunk plays from Florida State will allow this to stretch out. Duke competes; Florida State prevails. FLORIDA STATE 31-20
