Conference Preview: AAC Breakdown

There will be plenty of new faces in the AAC this year, both among players and coaches. Houston, Tulsa, and SMU reeled in three of college football's hottest offensive coordinators in Tom Herman (Ohio State), Philip Montgomery (Baylor), and Chad Morris (Clemson), respectively, and former fantasy stars like Justin Hardy, Shane Carden and Breshad Perriman have left for the pro ranks.

There are otherwise some notable continuities, however, especially among the potentially high-powered offenses of Memphis, Houston, Tulsa and Cincinnati. All four schools bring back fantasy factors at quarterback – Paxton Lynch at Memphis, Greg Ward at Houston, Dane Evans at Tulsa and Gunner Kiel at Cincinnati – and each school has its own group of intriguing players at the skill positions. There will be many touchdowns to be found in the AAC this year – at least as long as you stay away from Connecticut, South Florida and Tulane.

Top Five Fantasy Stars

1. Keevan Lucas, WR, Tulsa

It's easy to argue that Lucas is not only the top fantasy receiver in the AAC, but also the entire country.
He was a revelation as a true sophomore in 2014, tying for fifth-best nationwide with an average of 8.4 receptions per game, resulting in 101 catches for 1,219 yards and 11 touchdowns in 12 games. All but one of the five players who tied or exceeded Lucas' catch rate are now in the NFL, with only Colorado's Nelson Spruce (8.8 catches per game) back in 2015. Lucas' ceiling is even higher in 2015, both because he's a year more experienced and because new coach Philip Montgomery figures to install a Baylor-style offense.

2. Kenneth Farrow, RB, Houston

Just as Lucas figures to benefit from the arrival of new coach Philip Montgomery, Farrow should see a boost due to the hiring of Tom Herman, who spent the last three years serving as the offensive coordinator at Ohio State. Herman might have his next Ezekiel Elliott in Farrow, who has been extremely productive while splitting snaps with fellow running back Ryan Jackson over the last three years. Farrow really pulled away from Jackson in 2014, though, finishing with 1,037 yards and 14 touchdowns on just 186 carries (5.6 YPC) while Jackson finished with 610 yards and five touchdowns on 112 carries (5.5 YPC). With the elusive Greg Ward playing the Braxton Miller/J.T. Barrett/Cardale Jones role, Farrow should find openings between the tackles as defenses scramble to contain Ward on the edge.

3. Gunner Kiel, QB, Cincinnati

Kiel's college career finally got started in 2014, and he quickly reaffirmed why he was considered the best quarterback of the 2012 recruiting class. Playing against Toledo, Miami (OH) and Ohio State, Kiel threw for 1,041 yards (9.6 YPA) and 14 touchdowns in his first three games, but a rib injury suffered against Memphis in Week 4 went on to linger throughout the rest of the season. Despite playing through the injury, Kiel finished his first starting season with 3,254 yards (8.3 YPA), 31 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in 13 games. He even showed surprisingly good mobility by running for 142 yards and a touchdown. Kiel's ability to post elite passing numbers while avoiding negative rushing stats gives him an advantage over most other players capable of posting his passing stats, and he has a lot of playmakers at his disposal both at running back and receiver. If Kiel stays healthy for all of 2015, he'll have an enormous season. If you combine Kiel's 2014 passing stats with those of since-graduated backup Munchie Legaux, you get 3,828 yards and 34 touchdowns in 13 games.

4. Greg Ward, QB, Houston

Remember how Ohio State quarterbacks looked over the last three years? New coach Tom Herman will try to do something similar this year with Ward, who just happens to have the perfect skill set to meet the dual-threat demands of a Herman quarterback. Initially splitting his time at Houston between wide receiver and quarterback, Ward was finally given the keys to the offense against Memphis in Week 6, and he never gave the starting quarterback job back. Ward led Houston to a victory against a tough Memphis defense on the road, throwing for 188 yards and a touchdown while running for 95 yards (5.6 YPC) and a touchdown, and would eventually finish his season with 2,010 yards (7.6 YPA), 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions while running for 573 yards (4.9 YPC) and six touchdowns. With a full offseason of grooming for a starting quarterback role, Ward should enjoy a breakout season in 2015, even with leading 2014 wideouts Deontay Greenberry and Markeith Ambles gone.

5. Isaiah Jones, WR, East Carolina

Justin Hardy is the FBS record holder for career receptions, but the Pirates saw him graduate to the NFL this offseason, taking No. 2 WR Cam Worthy with him. Hardy and Worthy combined for 176 receptions last year, so there will be more opportunities this year for Jones, who caught 81 passes in 2014 even with Hardy and Worthy around. The tradeoff is that while Jones will be much more prominent this year in the East Carolina offense, the pie of passing production will be significantly smaller with star quarterback Shane Carden graduating. Still, Jones' 143 career receptions are a testament to his extreme reliability, and his advanced production for his age implies further development is possible. A 100-catch season seems very much within reach. The only negative with Jones is that he doesn't offer much upside on a per-catch basis – he his 143 career receptions have gone for just 1,434 yards and 10 touchdowns.

Fantasy Sleepers

1. Matt Davis, QB, SMU

A former four-star recruit and Texas A&M transfer, Davis could be one of the nation's most productive dual-threat quarterbacks if he can win the starting role under first-year head coach Chad Morris, who was previously the offensive coordinator at Clemson from 2011 to 2014. Davis was a remarkably productive runner in five starts last year, totaling 535 yards and four touchdowns (6.1 YPC). Davis probably doesn't have strong pedigree as a passer, but neither did Tajh Boyd, who was a yearly 40-touchdown threat under Morris' watch. So long as Davis beats out formidable true freshman Ben Hicks for the starting job, Morris should get the most out of him.

2. Kurt Benkert, QB, East Carolina

Benkert is the tentative favorite to replace Shane Carden as East Carolina's starting quarterback. We could leave it at that, but I'll quickly mention that East Carolina has averaged about 44 passes per game since coach Ruffin McNeill arrived in 2010. Isaiah Jones and Trevon Brown look like a strong one-two punch at wideout, Marquez Grayson and Chris Hairston are the same at running back, and the Pirates bring back four out of five starting linemen from last year. If Benkert is named starter, he gets some by-default value because of East Carolina's high passing volume.

3. Marques Grayson, RB, East Carolina

Leading 2014 rusher Breon Allen graduated in the offseason, leaving Grayson and returning senior Chris Hairston to battle for the starting role in 2015. Hairston is no pushover – he ran for 528 yards and two touchdowns on just 79 carries last year (6.7 YPC) – but I think Grayson is likely the greater talent between the two. Grayson was a relatively high recruit in 2013, reportedly selecting East Carolina over programs like Clemson, Tennessee and South Carolina, and he heads into his third year with the program as its established short-yardage runner at the very least – Grayson became the team's goal-line back in the second half of last year, finishing with 289 yards and five touchdowns on 47 carries (6.2 YPC). He also caught a sixth touchdown. I think we'll see a situation where Grayson gets the touchdowns and clock-grinding work while Hairston earns a role as more of a pass-catching specialist.

4. Trevon Brown, WR, East Carolina

East Carolina is attempting to replace Cam Worthy and all-time FBS career receptions leader Justin Hardy, which means there will be a lot of catches up for grabs in the Pirates 2015 offense. Aside from the previously mentioned Jones, Brown is otherwise the best candidate to capitalize. Listed at 6-foot-2, 210 pounds, Brown has the height/weight combo you look for in a red-zone target, and the fact that he scored four times on just 14 catches last year makes him look even better.

5. Doroland Dorceus, RB, Memphis

Dorceus' value takes a hit if Mississippi transfer Mark Dodson is given immediate clearance for 2015, but otherwise the exit of leading 2014 rusher Brandon Hayes could allow Dorceus to emerge as Memphis' next top runner. Dorceus was Memphis' leading rusher at the time of his season-ending injury in Week 4 last year, at which point he totaled 237 yards and four touchdowns on just 46 carries despite two of the four matchups being road games against UCLA and Mississippi. Dorceus' competition for carries is primarily Sam Craft, a RB/WR tweener, and Jarvis Cooper, a Jalston Fowler-like fullback tweener. Dorceus looks the best pure runner in this offense, which should score plenty of points with quarterback Paxton Lynch back for a third straight starting season.

Fantasy Busts

1. Shaq Washington, WR, Cincinnati

Washington is generally referred to as Cincinnati's top receiver, but that narrative will likely fade in 2015. Touchdown machines Mekale McKay and Chris Moore both offer much more size and playmaking ability than Washington, whose listed size of 5-foot-9, 172 pounds often precludes him from red-zone and downfield impact. Despite leading Cincinnati with 66 receptions, Washington finished with just 761 yards (11.53 YPC) and four touchdowns, while McKay (725 yards, eight touchdowns on 44 receptions) and Moore (673 yards and eight touchdowns on 30 receptions) showed far better efficiency.

2. Marlon Mack, RB, South Florida

Mack is a good player with a promising future after a highly successful true freshman season, one in which he ran for 1,041 yards (5.15 YPC) and nine touchdowns while snagging 21 catches for 160 yards. It would be a bad idea to assume that he'll improve in 2015, however. Advanced as his success was for his age, Mack's 2014 showing might be close to the best-case scenario in a South Florida offense that still figures to struggle in 2015. Plus, Mack's 2014 numbers were hugely inflated by a 275-yard, four-touchdown showing against Western Carolina in Week 1. Mack averaged just 4.3 YPC and under 70 yards rushing per game against FBS opponents, and just 3.6 YPC against Power Five opponents.

3. UConn Everything

If Connecticut has a shred of dignity at this point, the evidence is elusive. The Huskies scored just 20 touchdowns from scrimmage last year, averaging just 15.5 points per game while nearly getting doubled up at 29.8 points allowed per game. RB Ron Johnson (429 yards, three touchdowns in 2014) and WR Noel Thomas (305 yards and four touchdowns in 2014) are worth a glance, but only a glance, and only late in drafts.

4. William Stanback, RB, UCF

Stanback seems to be UCF's most talented running back, and the UCF starting running back role has proved profitable for fantasy owners in the past. The problem is that coach George O'Leary doesn't seem to like him much, publicly questioning the toughness of Stanback and other UCF runners within the last year. After running for 697 yards and 10 touchdowns last year, Stanback is at real risk of ending up in a rotation with Dontravious Wilson and Taj McGowan.

5. Jarvis Cooper, RB, Memphis

Memphis lost starting runner Brandon Hayes to graduation, and last year's stats might lead you to conclude Cooper is the logical replacement. After all, he finished second on the team with 378 yards and four touchdowns on just 75 carries (5.04 YPC) – a fine accomplishment for a true freshman. But at 6-foot-1, 250 pounds, Cooper is a fullback tweener unlikely to receive more than a part-time role. The Memphis backfield has two better starting running back candidates in Doroland Dorceus and Sam Craft.

Team-By-Team Fantasy Stars

Positional rankings in parentheses.

Cincinnati Bearcats

QB Gunner Kiel (16), RB Mike Boone (47), WR Mekale McKay (54), WR Chris Moore (83), Shaq Washington (131)

Connecticut Huskies

None

East Carolina Pirates

QB Kurt Benkert (45), RB Marquez Grayson (76), Chris Hairston (120), Isaiah Jones (33), Trevon Brown (48),

Houston Cougars

QB Greg Ward (25), RB Kenneth Farrow (25), RB Ryan Jackson (89), K Kyle Bullard

Memphis Tigers

QB Paxton Lynch (23), RB Doroland Dorceus (66), RB Sam Craft (104), RB Jarvis Cooper (138), WR Tevin Jones (139), WR Mose Frazier (148), TE Alan Cross (16)

South Florida Bulls

QB Quinton Flowers (84), RB Marlon Mack (60), WR Rodney Adams (133), TE Sean Price (17)

SMU Mustangs

QB Matt Davis (30), RB Prescott Line (95), RB Daniel Gresham (110), WR Courtland Sutton (96), WR Darius Joseph (112), TE Jeremiah Gaines (15)

Temple Owls

QB P.J. Walker (43), RB Zaire Williams (112), WR Ventell Bryant (115)

Tulane Green Wave

RB Sherman Badie (73), RB Lazedrick Thompson (128), WR Teddy Veal (136), TE Charles Jones (20)

Tulsa Golden Hurricane

QB Dane Evans (19), RB Zach Langer (32), WR Keevan Lucas (1), WR Keyarris Garrett (45)

UCF Golden Knights

QB Justin Holman (73), RB William Stanback (94), WR Jordan Akins (101), WR Tre'quan Smith (130)