This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Tennessee vs. Georgia
Number seven Tennessee goes on the road to Athens to face off with number nine Georgia in a game with tons of implications. Tennessee currently controls its own destiny for both the SEC and the College Football Playoff. If Tennessee can win out in regular season play, they will likely play the winner of the Texas vs. Texas A&M game for the SEC title and cement themselves into the Playoff. Georgia, on the other hand, is in a can't-lose situation. Coming into this game with two losses and their Playoff hopes in the balance, a loss on Saturday would all but push them out of the top 12 indefinitely, sealing their fate on what would be a disappointing season.
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Tennessee vs. Georgia Odds for Week 12
Spread: Tennessee +9.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Georgia -9.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Tennessee +295 (DraftKings Sportsbook); Georgia -335 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: Over 47 (Caesars Sportsbook); Under 47.5 (ESPNBet)
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Tennessee vs. Georgia Betting Picks for Week 12
Tennessee looks a bit different this year, as their defense has led the way for them. The Vols are fifth in the nation in both points allowed and total defense, allowing just 12.6 points per game and 271.2 yards per game. While their defense has been as good as any in the country, the offense has not been slacking either2, as they are third in the SEC in total offense with 471.6 yards per game and first in the SEC in rushing with 235.1 yards per game.
Georgia, on the other hand, has not been as dominant defensively as we have become accustomed to. The Bulldogs are sixth in the SEC in points allowed, averaging 18.4 points per game, and fifth in the SEC in yards allowed, averaging 306.6 yards per game.
To go along with a less-than-dominant defense, the offense for the Bulldogs has been middling as well. Georgia ranks seventh in the SEC in points, averaging 30.8 points per game, and eighth in the SEC in total yards, averaging 410.6 yards per game.
Tennessee is led by freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who ranks sixth in the SEC with 1,879 passing yards. Iamaleava has also tacked on 11 touchdowns to four interceptions. Running back Dylan Sampson has been the biggest playmaker for the Tennessee offense as he leads the SEC in rushing with 1,129 yards to go along with 20 rushing touchdowns which has him third in the nation in the category. Tennessee has talent on the outside with three wide receivers that have all produced a good amount to compliment the dominant rushing attack. Dont'e Thornton, Bru McCoy and Squirrel White have been the main contributors. Thornton leads the pack with 505 yards on 20 catches and four touchdowns, followed by McCoy with 357 yards on 27 catches, and White with 307 yards on 25 catches.
Georgia is led by senior quarterback Carson Beck. Beck is third in the SEC in passing with 2,488 passing yards to go along with 17 touchdowns and a league-leading 12 interceptions. The Georgia rushing attack has been led by Trevor Etienne, who has racked up 477 yards and seven touchdowns. However, freshman Nate Frazier has seen an uptick in work in recent weeks with 182 of his total 333 rushing yards coming in the last four games. Two of Frazier's three total rushing touchdowns have also come in the last two games. Etienne will not be available Saturday, so the pressure will be on Frazier to deliver in a big spot.
Georgia has missed their top playmakers in the receiving game from last season, as they have struggled with consistency, but they currently have a trio of contributing wide receivers so far this season. Arian Smith has led the way for the Bulldogs with 535 yards on 34 receptions with three touchdowns. Following Smith is Dominic Lovett with 430 yards on 42 catches with three scores, followed by Dillon Bell with 393 yards on 33 catches with a team-leading four touchdowns.
Tennessee vs. Georgia Expert Pick: Under 47.5 (ESPNBet/BetRivers)
Tennessee vs. Georgia Predictions for Week 12
There are a couple key injuries in this one as Georgia will be without running back, Etienne, leaving Frazier to pick up the slack. Another key will be the injury status of Iamaleava, who is a game-time decision after being in concussion protocol throughout practice this week.
The biggest key here would be the injury status of Iamaleava as this looks to be a big reason as to why the spread and moneyline are so inflated at Georgia -9.5 and -335. With the extreme inflation of the current line I would say it is worthwhile to take the gamble on Iamaleava playing in this one and taking the value his injury status has produced.
The safest play in this one, however, will likely be the under. Regardless of Iamaleava's injury status, Tennessee will try to control the game with their dominant rushing attack which will shorten the clock. The Tennessee defense will also force a Georgia offense that lacks explosion to grind out possessions. I think this sets up for a low-scoring, ugly affair. Take the under and Tennessee getting 9.5 points.
