College Football Picks: Picking Winners Week 6

CHRIS' PICKS

A late inclusion of Georgia Tech last week led to another winning week. Picking on bad teams has proven successful, so I'll be sure to sprinkle in a few of those below.

Georgia Southern –13.5 vs. South Alabama

South Alabama is one of the worst teams in the country. The Jaguars' only victory is against similarly lowly Texas State, and while they kept things close against Louisiana Tech in the season opener, they've fallen to Oklahoma State by 42, Memphis by 17 and Appalachian State by 45. Th Eagles obviously won't be confused with any of those teams, but they're a decent squad coming off an outright win over Arkansas State as 3-point dogs. They crushed UMass and South Carolina State before expectedly struggling at Clemson. The one constant theme in their three victories has been the ability of their triple-option offense to churn out big yardage on the ground, going for at least 319 yards in each game while scoring 10 touchdowns. The Jaguars know what's coming at them, but their 120th-ranked rush defense won't be able to stop it. USA has allowed 619 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground in the last two weeks.

South Florida –15 at Massachusetts

The line moved 1.5 points since opening, but I'm not sure that should scare anyone off. There's a huge disparity in talent, especially at skill positions where the Bulls bring former Alabama QB Blake Barnett and former Florida RB Jordan Cronkite to the table. Cronkite has been a boost for the Bulls after missing Week 1 and being slowed into the backfield rotation the following week. He's gone for 265 yards and two scores the last two weeks on only 37 carries (7.2 ypc), while Barnett has been solid throughout the season's first month, with the Bulls ranking 25th in passing yards per game with 291.5 nightly. The Bulls run defense hasn't been great, but that should be of minimal concern when facing a Minutemen offense that ranks 100th in rushing, putting up only 139.5 yards per game. That's partly due to the Minutemen giving up points in bunches (42.7 per game) and being forced to abandon the run, which should play right into the strength of the Bulls defense. USF allows only 162.7 yards per game through the air. The Bulls haven't looked overly interested the last two weeks, totaling 45 points in wins over East Carolina and Illinois, which has kept this line in check. USF earned 922 yards in those games, and simply failed to put points on the board. Scoring won't be the Bulls concern Saturday against the 126th-ranked scoring defense, while USF's defense has held three of four opponents to less than 20 points.

LSU –2.5 at Florida

This has all the makings of a hard-hitting, low-scoring, SEC dogfight. Florida brings the nation's ninth-ranked scoring defense, allowing 14.0 PPG, while LSU ranks 12th, allowing 15.0 PPG. The difference is that Florida has done its damage against Charleston Southern, Kentucky, Colorado State, Tennessee and Mississippi State, none of which are top-50 scoring offenses. The Tigers held Miami, who averages 44.2 (16th) to 17 and Ole Miss (36.8 PPG, 36th) to 16. LSU quarterback Joe Burrow is growing into his role weekly, coming off of a career-high 292 yards and three touchdowns against Mississippi. He proved he can go on the road in conference and win, throwing for 242 at Auburn, and he's yet to thrown an interception this season. Florida isn't as battle tested, and while it's at least plausible to see LSU scoring, it's difficult to find a path to points for Florida. Gators' quarterback Feleipe Franks has topped 200 yards passing just four times in 16 career appearances, tossing 11 interceptions against 21 touchdowns. It will be a grind, but LSU finds a way.

Arizona State +2.5 at Colorado

This comes down to who is more battle tested versus who might be a bit over-valued based on record. The Buffaloes are an impressive 4-0, which includes a sound road win at Nebraska where Adrian Martinez played most of the game. That's truthfully the extent of their resume, with their other three wins coming over UCLA, New Hampshire and Colorado State, who loyal readers know I believe to be one of the worst teams in FBS, as detailed in picking North Texas to beat Arkansas (who lost to CSU) a few weeks back. Arizona State, on the other hand, has already faced San Diego State and Washington, while beating Michigan State, Oregon State and UT-San Antonio. The Wildcats' two losses both came on the road by seven points. Yes, that's above this number, but Washington and San Diego State both would likely be favored over Colorado. If we're giving 3.5 or 4 points for home field, that tells me ASU would be favored on a neutral field. The Sun Devils average 5.1 yards per carry, ran for 396 yards and four scores last week and averaged 7.1 yards against Colorado last season. A similar formula leads to a road win against Colorado.

Florida State +13.5 at Miami

As a die-hard 'Cane, I'm happy to put a reverse jinx on and chalk up an L to my record to secure a W for Miami. Miami leads the nation in tackles for loss and faces a Florida State offensive line that has allowed the sixth-most tackles for loss, setting up FSU for a long day. But I'm not sold on Miami QB N'Kosi Perry, who was sound at Toledo but needed to throw only 12 times last week against UNC. FSU's defense has been sound, largely wilting late in games due to fatigue and/or giving up while watching its offense. The Seminoles will be plenty motivated in this spot against their rival. This game has been decided by five or less points four straight years, and Miami's largest margin of victory in the last decade is eight points. It's difficult to see the Noles pulling an upset, but this rivalry nearly always delivers a close contest, and this looks like far too many points to be giving FSU.

Last week: 3-2; Season: 14-10-1


GREG'S PICKS

Back on the positive side last week with yet another 3-2 week, but this one stung a little, not because my losses were bad beats, but because I started 3-0 and lost my last two. The week started with Colorado, which was a road dog at UCLA when I first looked at the game, but switched to a home favorite a day later. Obviously, I misread the matchup the first time around, but it worked out as Colorado covered. Temple was covering with ease for much of the game, but the Owls gave me a scare as BC was within range of covering, with the ball, in the red zone, but simply ran out the clock. Oklahoma had all kinds of trouble slowing Baylor for much of its game, but the Sooners got a couple key stops late and continued move the ball on offense, eventually getting plenty of separation. The losses weren't close. Virginia Tech bounced back in a big way and controlled the game against Duke and BYU couldn't get anything going on offense. 



Georgia Tech -4.5 at Louisville



The first thing that we need to do when thinking about Louisville is to remove the memory of the Lamar Jackson-lead Cardinal teams. Louisville is not that team anymore. This Louisville team lost to a rudder-less FSU team at home last week and barely beat Western Kentucky two weeks earlier at home. In between, the Cardinals got thumped at powerhouse Virginia. Georgia Tech is no powerhouse, but the Yellow Jackets may be back on track after posting 63 points last week against Bowling Green. The best argument for Georgia Tech this week, though, is Louisville's run defense, which ranks 83rd nationally in yards per game. Georgia Tech, meanwhile, ranks second in the nation in rushing offense, running at a healthy 6.24 yards per carry.


LSU -2.5 at Florida



With any luck, this line will stay right where it's at as I don't expect a lot of points in this game. Usually when I pick a side, it's because I'm down on the other side, but that's not the case here as I like both teams. LSU, though, appears to be on a different level. The Gators are coming off an impressive road win at Mississippi State last week, but they are stepping up in class against LSU this week. Yes, the game is at home, but the last game they played at home ended in a loss against Kentucky. LSU has met every test this season and while the Gators will certainly push the Tigers to the limit, it's nothing that they haven't already been through this season.



Notre Dame -6.5 at Virginia Tech

As mentioned, the Hokies were very impressive last week at Duke, but as good as Duke looked earlier this season, Duke is not Notre Dame. The impression that I got last week while watching the Duke game was that the Blue Devils were just not ready to be in a spot where everyone expected them to beat a team like Virginia Tech. No such worries this week from the Hokies opponent as Notre Dame is rarely overwhelmed by any team. Since switching to Ian Book, the Fighting Irish has been unstoppable on offense and should have no problem moving the ball on a Virginia Tech defense that obviously has holes. Sure, the Hokies shored up their defense last week, but again, that was Duke and the Hokies were likely playing with more vigor after getting embarrassed the week prior.

Alabama -35 at Arkansas



Alabama will always have a shot at covering big numbers this season because it essentially has two full shifts at its disposal. The first-stringers are nearly unstoppable on offense and the second-string is better than most Power 5 teams. Last week the tide failed to cover, but that number was near 50 points and it's tough to keep your intensity up against a non-conference opponent for 60 minutes. Different story this week as the Tide are back in conference against a team that laid it all on the line last week against Texas A&M and came up short. Bama will be rested and the Hogs will be gassed. Not a recipe for success for the Hogs.

Texas A&M -5.5 vs Kentucky

Not to disparage Kentucky, but the bubble is going to burst at some point. That's not to say that what the Cats have done to this point has been smoke and mirrors, they are definitely improved, but this is a tough spot for any team. Texas A&M could not have played much worse last week against Arkansas, but the Aggies still came away with the win. The Aggies had the toughest open to any schedule in the country, facing both Alabama and Clemson, but now it's their time to flex some muscle. They weren't able to do so last week, but back at Kyle Field, which they weren't last week, I expect a better effort a lot more energy. 



Last Week: 3-2; Season: 15-10