College Football Picks: Picking Winners Week 3

CHRIS' PICKS

I took it on the chin last week, and deservedly so, with only UVA helping my record. Liberty and Wisconsin I'll take full responsibility for, while CMU was admittedly a lazy pick, and I maintain Clemson would have covered had it not insisted on playing Trevor Lawrence. In any event, the line movement angle I noted at the end of the column proved at least somewhat more successful. Point being, I feel good about my process, but am just choosing the wrong games to spotlight.

Here's hoping all of our readers in the Carolinas are safe and sound throughout the weekend. I'm in central Virginia and at submission time, feel fortunate I'll likely be able to trivially watch and care about what I'm writing below rather than deal with disasters. Thoughts are with y'all.

Tennessee –30 vs. UTEP

All bets are off if Hurricane Florence pushes west with rapid pace. And this would be preferred at 28 or fewer, but UTEP is just such a bad football team. Since 2016, the Miners have lost to the following Power 5 schools; Arkansas by 35, Texas Tech by 49, Texas by 34, Oklahoma by 49 and Arizona by 47. Tennessee's offense scares me a bit, but it should post 35 points at a minimum with a solid rushing attack, and the defense shouldn't wilt to anything that UTEP throws at it. The Miners can't pass, and the Vols defense is still an SEC squad. They can shut down the run with four, but the Miners' lack of passing allows UT to focus as many as eight toward the box. If UTEP doesn't score 10-14, this is an easy cover.

Miami –10 at Toledo

Some readers might know I'm a die-hard Hurricanes fan, so fade this at will, though I rarely feel confident about "our" prospects. The simple fact is that Miami has too much raw/pure talent. Miami won at home last year by 22 against a Toledo squad that featured all-time quarterback Logan Whiteside. The Rockets don't have that luxury this year and home field in the Glass Bowl isn't likely to cover that gap. Toledo can absolutely keep this close through a half, but if you're not picking an upset, don't you expect a few explosive plays from the 'Canes to make this look like a very comfortable win?

North Texas +7 at Arkansas

I'm going out on a limb, but I like UNT on the money line, let alone +7. This line doesn't seem to reflect just how bad of a loss I think Arkansas suffered at Colorado State last week. The Rams lost to Hawaii and Colorado by a combined 41 points, allowing 765 yards passing, but Chad Morris' spread attack threw for only 138 yards. Arkansas won four games last season, against Florida A&M, New Mexico State, Coastal Carolina and Ole Miss, the latter two coming by one point each. North Texas has a clear identity offensively under quarterback Mason Fine, who leads the country in passing. The Mean Green shouldn't struggle to score, and with Arkansas looking for an offensive identity, a stop or two on defense paves the way to an outright victory.

Arkansas State –1.5 at Tulsa

Tulsa ranked 112th nationally against the pass a year ago, and matchups against Central Arkansas and Texas aren't going to inspire confidence that its secondary has been fixed. Arkansas State, meanwhile, ranked fifth in passing offense a year ago, averaging 342.2 yards per game, adding 38 touchdowns. Quarterback Justice Hansen remains under center for the Red Wolves and went for 423 yards and six scores in Week 1 before being crushed by Alabama last week. So long as there is no carryover from the loss to the Crimson Tide, Arkansas State will score plenty. Tulsa can run the ball with the best in the country, but that won't work late in the contest. In a tight battle throughout, Hansen leads his team to a road win.

Mississippi State –33 vs. Louisiana-Lafayette

The Bulldogs have dominated on both side of the ball through two weeks, while having plenty flaws to boot. They've outscored opponents by 78 points while Keytaon Thompson and Nick Fitzgerald have combined to go just 24-of-58 passing (41.4 percent). That suggests there's plenty of room for growth offensively, and the 7.95 yards per carry MSU is averaging on the ground shouldn't suffer against a lesser opponent. Mississippi State defense allows 138.5 yards per game through the air, and only 2.5 yards per carry on the ground. The line has moved three-plus points, and I'd prefer this at a lower tally. But only a lack of interest keeps Mississippi State from putting up 50-plus.

Last week: 1-4; Season: 4-6

GREG'S PICKS

Not all winning weeks feel the same, and although they are all good, sometimes you are left feeling like you missed an opportunity. Such was the case last week as a 3-2 record should have been better. The wins came easy and one of the two losses was tough to swallow. The first win was Houston, which crushed Arizona. The game was never close and there was never a moment when Houston even looked like it was in trouble. Utah State was an easy winner, as well as our impressions of New Mexico State were spot on. Last but not least, Kentucky won straight up as a 14-point dog. As for the losses, Fresno State was game, but the Bulldogs came up short in the end. Minnesota certainly looks improved from last season. The tough loss came when FAU surrendered a blocked punt for a TD with less than two minutes left. Tough losses are going to happen, though, as will lucky wins; hopefully they balance out throughout the season. 



Over 62 Hawaii at Army



Don't look now, but Hawaii is actually good. The Rainbows enter 3-0 and not every win has come at home either. The Rainbows already topped another triple-option team earlier this season, as well. If we are to find any fault with the Rainbows this season it's that they still aren't playing much defense. Hawaii has allowed more than 34 points per game, but most troubling is the nearly 200 yards allowed per game on the ground. Considering its opponent this week, that could be a problem. Army is 1-1 with a 20-point road loss at Duke and a 20-point home win against Liberty. In each game, the total landed exactly on 52. While that's not as high as I would like, Hawaii will dictate tempo in this game, which should lead to plenty of points.


Syracuse +3 vs. Florida State



It doesn't take an expert to see that there is something terribly wrong with FSU this season. FSU is likely to turn its season around at some point, but we can't be sure when, or even if, it will happen. If it does, I don't think it's going to happen this week. When the Orange are a decent team, it can be tough to go into the Carrier Dome and pull out a win. Just ask Clemson, which was upset at the hands of Eric Dungey and company last season. Syracuse also played FSU down to the wire last year in Tallahassee, so the Orange will certainly not be overwhelmed by the Seminoles. The line on this game is moving in the opposite direction, so it looks like the public believes that FSU turns it around this week, but I'm not buying it. 



BYU +21 at Wisconsin

There was a lot of hype surrounding the Badgers prior to this season, and while they are 2-0 and they've won with ease, they haven't looked the part yet. That's to say, they haven't covered yet. Last week, they let New Mexico hang around for a lot longer than anyone had anticipated. The reason was a lackluster offense and a defense that couldn't get off the field. New Mexico moved the ball with ease in the first half and BYU should do the same. BYU had set back last week when it lost to Cal, but it started the season with an impressive road victory at Arizona. The number on this game has dropped a couple points, but as long as it stays at or above three TDs, BYU should be a safe bet.

Minnesota -12.5 vs. Miami, Ohio



OK, I'm going to give this one more try. I'm 0-2 picking against the Gophers this season and even though the law of averages would suggest I'm better off picking against them again, I have to side with them this week. As mentioned earlier, the Gophers looked to be much improved from last season, which isn't saying a lot, but there's a chance the Gophers are actually significantly better this season. They finally have what looks to be a confident QB and the defense is legit. Miami, on the other hand, is off to a terrible start having dropped its first two home games already this season. Each week the Gophers will face a new test and this week is no exception. They now face the challenge of playing up to expectations as after beating Fresno State last week, the perception of their team has changed.

Purdue +6.5 vs. Missouri

The Big Ten has not performed well early in the season and Purdue has become the poster child for the conference's ineptitude after its home loss to Eastern Michigan last week. This is certainly not going to sit well with anyone associated with the Boilermakers. If Purdue was expected to be the cellar dweller in the conference, then perhaps I wouldn't expect any fight this week, but that's not the case. Purdue had a nice turn around last season and even won its bowl game. The Boilermakers were supposed to build on that this year, which means they'll be fighting for their season this week. Coincidently, it was Missouri that got off to an awful start last season, thanks in part to a 35-3 home loss to this same Purdue club. While there might be a revenge angle in play this week, it doesn't outweigh the urgency that the Boilers' will feel this week.


Last Week: 3-2; Season: 6-4