College Football Picks: Picking Winners Week 11

CHRIS' PICKS

I'll never complain about a winning week, so happily taking last week's 3-2 mark and moving on is fine by me. Picking a couple of bigger lines this week has me nervous, but this season seems to have such a large disparity between top-tier teams and the rest of the pack. Hopefully, those bottom feeders don't rise up for a day.

Syracuse –21 vs. Louisville (Friday)

This game reeks of a trap, but Louisville has shown no interest in competing, and there are reports of Bobby Petrino being out at season's end and a record number of players inquiring on transferring. The Cardinals have failed to cover in four straight – they've covered once all year – allowing at least 38 points in each of those, including at least 56 in three. The Orange have topped 40 points in three consecutive games and are 6-3 ATS. Maybe they are looking ahead to Notre Dame next week, but otherwise, there's no reason they score less than 45, and not much suggests they allow more than 21.

Cincinnati –14 vs. South Florida

I liked this much more at opening, where the line hovered between 10 and 12. But USF has been exposed the last two weeks as a team that was previously undefeated by beating a bunch of creampuffs. USF allowed 98 points in its last two, ranks 124th against the run and is staring down five consecutive losses to close the season with UCF and Temple looming after Cincy. The Bearcats are 6-3 ATS, including 3-1 at home, blanked Navy last week and rank 15th against the run, ninth against the pass and sixth in points allowed. They also rank sixth in rushing touchdowns, and shouldn't have any trouble pounding the Bulls. And that doesn't factor in cold weather that will further break USF's will.

Notre Dame –17.5 vs. Florida State

Speaking of cold weather, Saturday's high is 32 in South Bend with 16 mph winds. Given the way FSU's season has gone, it's hard to see it putting up a fight. The Seminoles are 3-6 ATS and are incredibly one dimensional offensively, ranking 128th in rush offense behind a woeful offensive line. Notre Dame counters with a pass defense that has allowed only six touchdowns all year while holding six teams to less than 181 yards. Maybe the Noles' defense keeps this respectable in the elements, but FSU has shown it can beat itself regularly, most recently committing 16 penalties for 121 yards. I expect very little effort from a frigid FSU squad that will spend most of its time huddled around heaters.

Miami +3.5 at Georgia Tech

These teams appear to be heading in opposite directions, which leaves Miami as an attractive pivot play. I don't find the Jackets resume overly impressive and Miami has the ideal defense to slow down GT's option. They rank 23rd against the rush, allowing 3.23 ypc, and continue to lead the nation in tackles for loss with 94 through 10 games. They are going to force GT into second- and third-and-long situations that this offense isn't built to handle. Yes, Miami has scored just 39 points in its last three, but Georgia Tech allows 28.2 points per game. Mark Richt also owns the Yellow Jackets, going 15-2 against them when including his time at Georgia. Getting points feels great.

UL Monroe –6.5 at South Alabama

ULM punched me in the gut last week with a blowout win over Georgia Southern. They Warhawks have been incredibly inconsistent and the road trip could be a spot for a letdown. Otherwise, this is a game they should win going away. South Alabama is one of the worst teams in the country at 2-7, with wins over just Texas State and Alabama State. The Jaguars allowed at least 30 points in all of their losses and have scored 17 points or less in all but one of their defeats. South Alabama could be without starting quarterback Evan Orth because of a shoulder injury that knocked him out last week. I absolutely don't trust the Warhawks, but they should comfortably handle the Jaguars.

Last week: 3-2; Season: 29-20-1


GREG'S PICKS

If you've done this for any length, you are familiar with the concept of a "trap" game. As someone who has been at this for a couple decades, I am more than familiar with trap games, yet every once in a while, you are walking through the woods and the lasso around your ankle tightens and you find yourself hanging upside down from a tree. The trap I walked into last week was Florida, which at just a six-point favorite, looked like a great play. Unbeknownst to me, Florida was the team that was throttled by Georgia and not the team that beat LSU and Missouri. (Well, Missouri still isn't anything, but the Tigers picked last Saturday to play their best game of the season.) That was one of my three losses in an overall unpleasant weekend. The other losses were Virginia Tech, which hung tough into the second half, and LSU, which did not. The wins came fairly easy with Georgia and the over in the Oklahoma game. 



Pittsburgh -3 vs. Virginia Tech



If the Hokies had any fight left in them, we would have seen it last week. After last week's loss, that's three losses in their last four games and the only win was against lowly North Carolina. Pittsburgh was plastered by a couple good teams this season, but the Panthers hung tough with Notre Dame and have beaten Duke and Virginia in recent weeks. Pittsburgh is headed in the right direction and Virginia Tech is not. Three points should be an easy cover.


Georgia Tech -3.5 vs. Miami

If Georgia Tech were a little more consistent, this number would be closer to six, but since the Yellow Jackets are tough to peg on a weekly basis, this number seems about right. That said, I expect the good Yellow Jacket squad to show up this week, which means they'll cover with ease. Miami is quite simply a mess. The Hurricanes have dropped their last three and haven't won convincingly since they beat North Carolina five games ago. Georgia Tech will get revenge for its one-point loss at Miami last season.

Over 67.5 Nebraska vs. Illinois



It took the Cornhuskers a while to get going, but after a rough first month, the offense is humming along, averaging more than 37 points in their last three conference games. Enter Illinois, which might have the worst defense in the Big Ten. Illinois has surrendered more than 47 points per game over its last four games. Illinois has found an offense the last couple weeks as well. There is plenty of offense to go around, and neither team has played much defense this year. There should be plenty of points in Lincoln on Saturday.



Over 58 Purdue at Minnesota

I initially wanted to side with Purdue, and while I think that's a good play as well, I think the best play in the over. The Gophers' defense got so bad that Minnesota fired its defensive coordinator this week, but the offense is decent, especially at home. Purdue is rounding into a pretty complete team, but the Boilermakers have had some defensive lapses this season. If their defense doesn't show, this game will go over with ease. If they come to play, the Purdue offense can carry the burden of getting this game over the total. Either way, this game is going over the total.

Texas -2 at Texas Tech 



Texas has suffered several close losses this season and while this one sets up to be a close, I think the Longhorns find a way to win in this spot. The Longhorn offense has been in sync all season, but the defense has failed in every important spot. If Texas Tech QB Alan Bowman were playing this week, I wouldn't dare side with Texas, but his absence changes the Red Raider offense drastically. Without Bowman, the Longhorns can get a few stops and that's all it will take to get on top of this number.


Last Week: 2-3; Season: 28-22