College Football Picks: Picking Winners Week 10

CHRIS' PICKS

A blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then, and that was me last week. 5-0, so I'm writing with broad shoulders and ready for a seemingly inevitable crash. A lot of road favorites for me this week, which is a concern and feels destined for mediocrity. Can you tell I'm less than confident with these selections? Overall, I just didn't like this slate, so hopefully I've mixed in a few winners.

Georgia Southern –7.5 at UL-Monroe

This opened at minus-9, so that it has moved down both scares me and makes me happy. It's a clear letdown spot for GSU after last week's win over Appalachian State, but Georgia Southern is 7-1 ATS, and in hindsight, Vegas' lines don't appear to have correlated with the state of the team. The Eagles' option offense ranks fourth nationally in rushing, while ULM ranks 102nd in stopping the run. Defensively, the Eagles rank 17th in points allowed at 18.6 after allowing 32.2 a year ago. Time of possession will be key, and I don't see the Warhawks scoring on every possession like they need to to keep up.

Memphis –13 at East Carolina

ECU showed some fight early in the year, but it entered the bye week on a three-game losing streak, dropping each game by at least 22 points. The Pirates averaged only 14.4 points in their five losses, three times less than that. Memphis hasn't won anything of note, but when it wins, it wins big, scoring 58.0 ppg in four victories. The Tigers can pass when they need to, but average 6.92 ypc on the ground. ECU gave up 316 yards on the ground to UCF in its last outing, and Memphis will follow a similar path and coast to a win.

Syracuse – 6 at Wake Forest

This line opened at 4, 4.5, but still seems like a response to Wake's win at Louisville last week. So I'll remind you that Louisville is a 40-point dog at Clemson this week and only has beaten Indiana State and Western Kentucky to date. Since we're talking about a lack of quality wins, it seems prudent to note Wake has only beaten the Cardinals, Tulane, Towson and Rice. The Deacons simply can't stop anyone, allowing at least 56 points three times in their last four games. Syracuse ranks seventh in scoring, putting up 43.6 weekly, and its strength in the passing game plays right into Wake's porous pass defense. The over looks like a great play too, but the Orange will get enough stops to win with ease.

Iowa State –14.5 at Kansas

Loved my colleague's play, and win, on Kansas last week at TCU, and it seems to set up a great opportunity to pivot this week to boot. That win likely equates to the Jayhawks' Super Bowl, and they are still a team that lost to Nicholls State and has lost four times all by more than this number and an average of 21.8 points. The Cyclones have covered in four straight while winning three in a row, scoring at least 30 in each of those outings. They've held opponents to 17 points or less four times, and in doing so this week will earn an easy road victory.

Eastern Michigan –13.5 vs. Central Michigan

The Chippewas are 1-8, beating only FCS Maine, while losing to Akron and Kansas. They've scored only 10 points in each of their last two games, and will be without quarterback Tommy Lazzaro. Further, they could be looking ahead to next week's game against Bowling Green, likely their only shot to win again in 2018. EMU is nothing special, but it can at least score regularly. The total 46.5, and I don't see CMU contributing much more than 14, which gives the Eagles 32, and wiggle room for a cover.

Alabama-LSU

No official pick for Alabama-LSU, but it's very, very difficult to fade the Tide at such a relatively low number (14.5).

Last week: 5-0; Season: 26-18-1

GREG'S PICKS

Yet another 3-2 week, but this one stung a bit. The wins came fairly easy, with Northwestern and Kansas covering the entire way. Minnesota should have covered with ease, but the Gophers had to make it interesting after going up 31-9 on the Hoosiers. The losses were close and both left a bitter taste. The first was the over in the UCLA game as the Bruins had a first-and-goal and were just seven yards from the score that would put the score over the total. They obviously didn't score. The second was Missouri, which was on top of the number most of the game, only to lose the cover on a punt return and eventually lose the game after a questionable pass interference call. What was really frustrating about that game, though, was Missouri didn't pick up a single first down in the second half and yet the Tigers were covering almost the entire way. One single first down could have been the difference between a win and a loss and maybe a cover as well. 



Georgia -9 at Kentucky



Kentucky is in the midst of its greatest football season in a long time, and while the Wildcats have met almost every challenge to date, I'm not convinced they are anything other than a good defense that has caught a lot of breaks. The offense is still one dimensional and while that's good enough to get past Missouri, it's not nearly enough to get past or even hang with a Georgia team that got back on track last week. Kentucky will use the energy of the crowd and its own adrenaline to keep this close early, but the Bulldogs pull away in the second half.


Florida -6 vs. Missouri

I'm trying to figure out this line, but I can't, which gives me pause. But I can't pass it up. I expected this line to be closer to 10, but since it's less than a TD, I'll jump all over it. Both teams are coming off tough losses, but the Gators are at home and it's a lot easier to get over a loss when you have your crowd behind you. The Tigers' offense, which once looked impressive, now looks mortal. Missouri will have a tough time getting up after heart breaking loss last week and before the Tigers realize it, they'll be down a couple scores and throwing in the towel.

Virginia Tech +2 vs. Boston College



Boston College entered the top 25 this week based on its victory over Miami? Yes, that was meant to be a question. I've watched plenty of B.C. action this season and I'm just not that impressed. Beating an overrated Hurricane team last week didn't change my opinion. While B.C. picked up its sixth win last week, all but guaranteeing a bowl birth, the Hokies have only four wins and will be desperate to pick one up here. The Hokies are desperate and embarrassed after last week's showing against Georgia Tech, which is a tough combination to overcome without a huge talent edge, and B.C. does not have a huge talent edge. 



Over 76.5 Oklahoma at Texas Tech

After decades of futility, it appeared for a while that Texas Tech's defense had turned a corner. And then Iowa State dropped 40 on the Red Raiders. A closer look at their schedule has revealed that when facing teams with a quality offense, more often that not, the defense was in fact the same as we were used to. This week it will face the best offense it has seen all season. Oklahoma's defense was so bad, it fired their defensive coordinator a couple weeks ago. Has it help? It's tough to tell as the Sooners haven't faced a good offense since. My guess is, it's still the same defense.

LSU +14.5 vs. Alabama



No matter how good Alabama has looked the last decade, there always is a game or two where things don't come easy. Alabama has looked like a machine to this point, but how will the Tide respond when their opposition provides a little resistance. We'll find out this week as LSU is equipped to give the Tide all they can handle. To be honest, I'm still not sold on Alabama's defense, and although LSU has struggled at times on offense, I think in front of the home crowd, they can do just enough to stay within this number.


Last Week: 3-2; Season: 26-19