This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Best Bets: Oregon vs. Michigan State Odds, Picks, and Predictions
Friday night, the Oregon Ducks play their second-ever Big Ten conference game. Of course, their first conference game was against UCLA so, you know, not exactly "Big Ten Football." A visit from Michigan State, coached by the man who once led the Ducks' biggest rivals, Oregon State, is a proper bit of conference play. Can Oregon turn it into a statement win?
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Oregon vs. Michigan State Odds
Spread: Oregon -24 (DraftKings Sportsbook), Michigan State +24.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: 52.5 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Oregon -2800 (DraftKings Sportsbook), Michigan State +1400 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
The oddsmakers were never really shook by Oregon's slow start to the season, and the last couple weeks have validated that to a large degree. Certainly, the belief is there given that the Ducks are favorites by over three touchdowns.
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Oregon vs. Michigan State Betting Picks
The Ducks certainly drew some "surprised eyes" emojis when they struggled with Idaho to open the season. Boise State played Oregon tough as well, though the presence of Ashton Jeanty makes Boise tough opposition, as tough as it gets in terms of Group of Five teams. Then, as hands were being wrung, Oregon smashed Oregon State 49-14 and then comfortably beat UCLA on the road 34-13. Michigan State opened the season with three wins, though two were by six points or fewer, but it lost close to Boston College and then last week got housed 38-7 by Ohio State.
Heading into this season, Oregon was seen as a title contender, while Michigan State was seen as rebuilding the program under new head coach Jonathan Smith. Sparty's defense has been good, but the offense is struggling. MSU ranks 111th in offensive SP+, and Aidan Chiles has struggled to live up to the hype under center. Granted, Dillon Gabriel has also disappointed a bit, but his hype was "Heisman favorite" level, which is a different story.
Michigan State and UCLA are fairly even in terms of talent, with the former probably a smidge better. Oregon "only" beat UCLA by 21, but that was on the road. The Ducks are at home Friday, and Autzen Stadium has yet to host a strong win this season. I think that's about to change.
Oregon vs. Michigan State Best Bet: Oregon -24 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Oregon vs. Michigan State Predictions
Even with a couple of so-so outings, Oregon ranks fourth in offensive SP+ and 22nd defensively. I think the Ducks will win this one comfortably because the Spartans will struggle to score on the road. Oregon is not as good defensive as Ohio State is, but it is good enough. If the Spartans score two touchdowns with this offense in Eugene, that would be a surprise, and so 35-to-38 points for the Ducks would suffice to cover the spread. This is a bet that Oregon is in a groove now and ready to make a statement at home.
