This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks: Florida vs. Georgia Odds, Picks, and Predictions
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November kicks off for these two SEC stalwarts with their annual neutral-site clash. Georgia and Florida are facing off at the Jacksonville Jaguars stadium. As per usual, the largest city in the Sunshine State plays home to this rivalry matchup that some consider a cocktail party of atypical size. While the Bulldogs head into this game feeling good, the Gators have certainly seen better days. Still, could an upset be brewing?
Florida vs. Georgia Odds
Spread: Georgia -14.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook), Florida +15.0 (ESPN Bet
Total: Over 51.5 (Caesars Sportsbook), Under 52.5 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Georgia -675 (DraftKings Sportsbook), Florida +500 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Every book I looked at indicated the oddsmakers feel similarly about this game. The Bulldogs were favored by around 14.5-15 points. Clearly, Georgia is heavily favored, even in a neutral field. Of course, now the Dawgs have to live up to that.
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Florida vs. Georgia Betting Picks
One of these teams has generated title talk, while the other has generated coach-firing talk. The Bulldogs got people buzzing with a 30-15 win at then-undefeated Texas, arguably the most impressive win of the season. Meanwhile, the Gators are 4-3, though their three losses have come to Miami, Texas A&M, and Tennessee. All three of those teams are seen as potential playoff squads. Of course, so is Georgia.
The Bulldogs winning and turning the heat up on Billy Napier's seat all that much more is likely, but how will that win shake out? Florida beat Kentucky 48-20 and beat Mississippi State 45-28. Georgia, meanwhile, eked out a 13-12 win against Kentucky and only beat Mississippi State 41-31. This has led to a narrative saying that the Bulldogs only turn it on when they have to. They don't care about covering spreads. They only put in as much effort as necessary. When the Dawgs visited the Longhorns, they looked like the best team in the nation! Or…is that all just easy justification for spotty performance?
Georgia is only ranked sixth in SP+, while Florida actually ranks 21st. That being said, Graham Mertz is out for the season for the Gators with a knee injury, leaving freshman DJ Lagway to start… against the Bulldogs. Not only that, but Florida's top back, Montrell Johnson, is questionable with a lower-body injury. This is enough to put Georgia over the top for me.
Florida vs. Georgia Best Bet: Georgia -14.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Florida vs. Georgia Predictions
Georgia is in the top 10 in offensive, defensive, and special teams SP+. Florida ranks 18th offensively but 41st defensively. That gives me concern the Gators can stop the Bulldogs. However, the fact Mertz will be out and Johnson might be out means the Gators' offense likely won't be up to that level. Lagway was able to handle Samford but has not looked impressive in any other appearances. I have a hard time seeing the Gators scoring more than 14 points in Jacksonville without Mertz, but the Bulldogs could certainly get over 30. Miami and Texas A&M did it against Florida. Now it's Georgia's turn.
