This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
College Football Picks for Arizona State vs Texas State
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Arizona State will make a rare Power 4 appearance in San Marco, TX, on Thursday evening to face an upstart Texas State side. Fresh off beating Mississippi State, the Sun Devils enter with a 2-0 record STU and ATS, with one of those games going over the total. The Bobcats sit at 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS, with the total in these two games somehow pushing both times.
Arizona State vs Texas State Betting Odds for Week 3
Spread: Texas State +1 (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook); Arizona State even (-110 Caesars Sportsbook)
Total: Over 59.5 (-110 FanDuel Sportsbook); Under 59.5 (-108 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Arizona State -106 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Texas State -105 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Because I'm submitting this later than I normally do/closer to kickoff, we can get a seemingly clearer view of these line movements. The total opened at 58/59, depending on your preferred book, dipped half a point early, and now is slowly but steadily rising, reaching its current 60.0 between 3:30 and 7:00 p.m. EDT. It's not a significant movement, but the upward trend tells us where it's heading. I'd be shocked if it went in the other direction in the next 24 hours.
The spread has continued a slow downward trend, as the Sun Devils opened at (-2.5). So spots still have (-1.5), but most Wednesday evenings are showing this at (-1), and even Caesars has a pick'em. To make matters worse if you're backing the home side, we're now getting minus odds on both teams on the moneyline. Having written this earlier in the day and not pleased with my work, the delay in submission tells me bettors are as conflicted on this pick as I am. It could go either way.
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Arizona State vs Texas State Betting Picks for Week 3
We know what Arizona State is going to do here, and that's to run the ball. They're averaging a massive 293.5 yards per game and have attempted 106 rushes in two outings, the seventh most in the country. Texas State's offense is more balanced, and the numbers are skewed based on the opponent, but they're in the top 36 in both rushing and passing yards per game.
I have some concerns with Arizona State's inexperienced offensive line. Texas State is an aggressive defense that will take chances, and I'm not sure ASU QB Sam Leavitt can exploit those missed chances, nor does his receiving corps put much scare into opposing secondaries. The obvious play here seems to be the over, given the prolific offenses, but I think that's a risk as both are solid in ball control, particularly Arizona State, possessing it for 38:38 minutes nightly. If this game is close, I could see a more methodical approach later. That leaves us with needing a winner, and while it may not be what we want, i.e., a sexy upset and small school field storming, I'm backing the Sun Devils in a tough, back-and-forth contest. They'll find gaps up front with the Bobcats defense attacking, and one or two shot plays from the passing game make the difference.
Arizona State vs Texas State Expert Pick: Arizona State Even (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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Arizona State vs Texas State Predictions for Week 3
This is an absolutely fascinating matchup, and kudos to Arizona State for being willing to take this on in Texas. The Bobcats have played Baylor in each of the three years, with the Bears coming to San Marco in 2021 as the No. 5 ranked team in the country and escaped with a nine-point win. Texas State's two more recent trips to a Power 4 opponent weren't as close.
TSU QB Jordan McCloud was the offensive player of the year in the Sun Belt last year at JMU and is as dynamic as they come at quarterback. He's going to get this offense in position to score, and potentially win late. But the Bobcats will be a little too juiced at home in this spot. Their defense is aggressive by nature, and I look for ASU to exploit that. And then, too much Cameron Skattebo and the Sun Devils ground attack take over.
Arizona State 30-29.
