This article is part of our Sweet 16 Preview series.
East Region Sweet 16 Preview
South Region Sweet 16 Preview
Midwest Region Sweet 16 Preview
West Region Sweet 16 Preview
Site: TD Garden, Boston, MA
Tipoff: Thursday, March 28, 7:39 p.m. EDT
Yale busted the East side of the bracket, taking out what appeared to be a peaking Auburn team, while Duquesne threw this region for a loop in shocking BYU (and me), but otherwise the seeds largely held serve in the East. Teams seeded 1, 2, and 3 all reached the tournament's second weekend. The lone higher seed is just No. 5, which happens to set us up for a rematch of last year's National Championship Game. That game wasn't particularly close, and comes with a double-digit spread and a low point total. Things shift drammatically for Thursday's nightcap, where the expectation is a higher-scoring, close game.
No. 1 Connecticut vs. 
No. 5 San Diego State
Key Matchup: Tristen Newton vs. Lamont Butler. The Aztecs have just one scorer that averages in double-digits, and are going to need at least LeDee, if not more, to step up and provide additional offensive options. Butler seems like the likely candidate, averaging 11.7 points across his last seven. San Diego State is going to be undersized at every position on the court, sometimes rather significantly. Newton is Connecticut's drivng force on offense, scoring and dishing out a plethora of assists. At 6-foot-5, he seems likely to be able to use that size to penetrate offensively while also using the length to
East Region Sweet 16 Preview
South Region Sweet 16 Preview
Midwest Region Sweet 16 Preview
West Region Sweet 16 Preview
Site: TD Garden, Boston, MA
Tipoff: Thursday, March 28, 7:39 p.m. EDT
Yale busted the East side of the bracket, taking out what appeared to be a peaking Auburn team, while Duquesne threw this region for a loop in shocking BYU (and me), but otherwise the seeds largely held serve in the East. Teams seeded 1, 2, and 3 all reached the tournament's second weekend. The lone higher seed is just No. 5, which happens to set us up for a rematch of last year's National Championship Game. That game wasn't particularly close, and comes with a double-digit spread and a low point total. Things shift drammatically for Thursday's nightcap, where the expectation is a higher-scoring, close game.
No. 1 Connecticut vs. No. 5 San Diego State
Key Matchup: Tristen Newton vs. Lamont Butler. The Aztecs have just one scorer that averages in double-digits, and are going to need at least LeDee, if not more, to step up and provide additional offensive options. Butler seems like the likely candidate, averaging 11.7 points across his last seven. San Diego State is going to be undersized at every position on the court, sometimes rather significantly. Newton is Connecticut's drivng force on offense, scoring and dishing out a plethora of assists. At 6-foot-5, he seems likely to be able to use that size to penetrate offensively while also using the length to frustrate whomever he's matched up against defensively.
Connecticut will win IF: Energy/intensity. The Huskies literally do everything well, but they still have to show up and play with the drive that their head coach embodies. It's not an easy task to do every single time out. They're favored by double-digits, playing close to home and should have ample fan support. They're the defending champions and surely hear the outside noise about how good they are. If they show up thinking they can just play and win, against a team that's gritty and scrappy like their opponent is, that's the recipe for mistakes and a possible close call.
San Diego State will win IF: It holds Connecticut to 60 points. It's incredibly difficult to find a patch for the Aztecs here, as the Huskies are better in every single metric. We know they will try to control pace here and keep the Huskies down on the scoreboard, because frankly, SDST can't score in bunches. Connecticut is comfortable with that and are a defensively stout team too, holding three straight and five of their last six opponents to 61 points or less. The Huskies averaged 63.7 points in their three losses with a high of 66 points, and I'm not sure the Aztecs can even get that high. UConn has been held under 70 points just two other times. The Aztecs also don't shoot the 3-pointer well, and will need it less if the game is low-scoring.
Player to Watch: Jaedon LeDee, F, San Diego State. LeDee is built like a tank, and through two games, he's put the Aztecs on his broad shoulders and carried them offensively, averaging 29.0 points and 8.5 rebounds while shooting 66.7 percent from the floor and 83.3 percent from the foul line. I have my doubts the Aztecs can keep Connecticut from scoring, but if they do as noted above, and LeDee hits his averages, they're halfway to 60 already. He hasn't faced a big body like Donovan Clingan thus far, but LeDee also plays 10 minutes more than we usually see Clingan. He's going to have to be productive throughout, and super productive when Clingan is out.
Prediction: We can't take a ton away from Connecticut's opener against a massively undermanned opponent, but to show how dominant they were against Northwestern, they won by 17 despite going 3-of-22 from 3-point range. The last team to beat UConn was Creighton, and they did so by hitting 14-of-28 from deep. That's not the Aztecs game. They just aren't built to be competitive here. The Huskies are too much on both ends, and stretch this out comfortably.
SWEET 16 PICK: Connecticut
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 3 Illinois 
Key Matchup: Marcus Domask vs. Tamin Lipsey. It's hard to call Lipsey, who averages 2.7 steals, a defensive liability, but at 6-foot-1, I have some concerns about who he's going to guard, as all of Illinois' starters are 6-foot-6 or taller. He's enjoyed a nice breakout year overall, capable of impacting the game in all facets, but it's been somewhat inconsistent. They'll need the good version here. Domask too has enjoyed a breakout year and seems locked in, averaging 19.0 points, 7.0 rebounds and 8.3 assists over his last four. It seems unlikely Iowa State can completely shut down Terrence Shannon, but if Domask too is scoring at a high level, that could be too much to overcome.
Iowa State will win IF: It wins the turnover battle. The easy answer here is control pace, and that's vitally important too as they don't seem built to simply keep pace with Illinois. I think the Cyclones are going to need to create additional possessions (more on this next). This defense ranks second nationally in turnover percentage creation, while Illinois' defense is 360th. Both offenses take care of the ball pretty well, but if Iowa State can create more opportunities to exploit Illinois' porous defense, that gives them a better shot at success.
Illinois will win IF: It exploits size advantages and dominates on the glass. Illinois is considerably bigger than Iowa State at every position, and it ranks 16th nationally in offensive rebound percentage. Iowa State is 196th in offensive rebounds allowed. Similar thought process here to Iowa State above, more offensive rebounds means more shot attempts, often either close in stickbacks, or open kickouts for 3-pointers. Somewhere between these two keys, one side needs to emerge with a statistical advantage. Which one does likely advances.
Player to Watch: Coleman Hawkins, F, Illinois. Hawkins has had some blowup games on occasion, but is averaging just 8.0 points and 6.8 rebounds over his last six games with Illinois being very perimeter oriented. At 6-foot-10, he somehow has just one offensive rebound combined in five of those six games. I'd prefer the Illini try to use their size advantage on the interior more than shooting over the size advantages they have outside. Hawkins needs to be more involved, and more aggressive when he is.
Prediction: This is an absolutely fascinating matchup, with the nation's most efficient offense facing the nation's most efficient defense. Illinois also happens to be perceived as a bad defensive team despite middling ratings. Don't they always say defense wins championships? Not here for the Cyclones unfortunately. I think the Illini have too much firepower and size for the Cyclones to shut down or match as needed.
Sweet 16 Pick: Illinois
