This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Now on a scorching hot run, going 10-2 in the last four days, Steve Peralta breaks down some select matchups on Saturday's major conference tournament slate. Here are his best bets of the day.
Penn State vs 
Indiana
With its ticket to the Big Dance almost in hand, Penn State is proving to be an extremely dangerous team as we enter the heart of March. I've ridden with Penn State for the past two days and see no reason to jump off the bandwagon on Saturday.
The Nittany Lions have now won seven of their last eight games, propelled to success by their explosive offensive attack. As mentioned in recent days, Penn State has a case for being the best shooting team in the country. The Nittany Lions have made 39 percent of shots from behind the arc while shooting three-pointers at the eighth-highest rate in the country, yielding the second-highest three-pointer point distribution among all D1 teams. Almost anyone on the team can drain a long-range shot on any given possession, as Penn State has four starters that have made over 39 percent of at least 80 three-point attempts, creating a matchup nightmare for most opposing teams. Indiana found this out the hard way when these two teams played each other back on January 11. Penn State made 18-of-31 three-point attempts, blowing past Indiana by a final score of 85-66.
Indiana, on the other hand, hasn't won back-to-back games in over a month, when it won three straight at the start of February. The Hoosiers looked formidable when they swept their archrival, Purdue, although it's important to keep in mind that Purdue is built completely differently than Penn State. Throughout the season, Indiana had a rough time against high-powered offensive teams that spread the floor, getting blown out against teams such as Arizona, Kansas and Iowa, in addition to the first matchup against Penn State.
Considering the matchup and how these teams have played in recent weeks, I'm betting Penn State will keep the fire lit. The Nittany Lions torched Indiana the first time they played the Hoosiers, and there's not much reason to think Indiana will fare much better on Saturday. It's always possible Penn State's shots might not fall often enough to get the win, but I like our chances based on the data. I'm going with Penn State.
College Basketball Best Bet: Penn State +3
Xavier vs 
Marquette
The Big East tournament final features two of the best offensive teams in the country. Xavier enters the game ranked third on KenPom's offensive efficiency chart with Marquette ranked a few slots below at seventh. Both teams are extremely effective in scoring both inside and outside the arc, so neither team seems to have an advantage in the scoring category. That said, the same isn't necessarily true when examining the defenses of each team.
Based on efficiency numbers, Marquette's defense compares slightly favorably to Xavier's, although a deeper look suggests it's the Golden Eagles' defense that might have more difficulty on Saturday. During conference play, Marquette allowed opponents to make over 53 percent of shots inside the arc, the highest percentage allowed in the Big East. This bodes well for Xavier, as the Musketeers made over 54 percent of two-point field goal attempts, the 30th-highest percentage among all D1 teams and the third-highest in the conference. Marquette's defense typically makes up for its awful field goal percentage numbers by forcing turnovers, recording the highest defensive turnover percentage in the Big East. However, this skill is significantly less effective against Xavier, which seldom turns the ball over, posting the third-lowest offensive turnover percentage in the Big East during league competition.
Xavier, in contrast, is great at defending the interior, holding Big East opponents to under 50 percent on shots inside the arc, the third-lowest percentage allowed in the conference. This is critical because Marquette leads the nation in two-point field goal percentage, so Xavier appears well-equipped to defend close-range shots. Additionally, Xavier also holds a substantial rebounding advantage in this matchup. The Musketeers ranked top four in the Big East in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage during league competition, while Marquette ranks in the bottom four of the conference in the same two categories.
All in all, while this game is extremely close on paper, Xavier has an edge in a few key areas. No outcome is a 'gimme' at this stage in the game, but I like our chances with Xavier. I'm taking the Musketeers in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Xavier +2
Duke vs 
Virginia
Duke enters Saturday riding an eight-game win streak, its longest of the season. The Blue Devils haven't lost since February 11, when they lost in overtime to Virginia. And while the game was close enough to go into an extra period, the Cavaliers didn't shoot the ball particularly well, shooting under 30 percent from behind the arc and under 41 percent from the charity stripe. If Virginia has better fortunes on Saturday, then the rematch won't be nearly as close.
Both of these teams were stronger on the defensive end of the court this season, although Virginia's was clearly better in most categories. The Cavaliers ranked first in the ACC in defensive efficiency and defensive turnover percentage, with the latter having major significance in this matchup because the Blue Devils had a gigantic problem with turnovers, recording the second-worst offensive turnover percentage in the ACC. The Cavaliers have the turnover advantage on the other end of the court as well, where Virginia's offense had the third-lowest offensive turnover percentage in the ACC while Duke's defense ranked fourth-lowest. Add it all up and it's a good bet that Virginia will win the turnover margin on Saturday. We already saw this play out once, as the Blue Devils committed a season-high 22 turnovers when these teams met on February 11.
Duke is undoubtedly a dangerous team with a roster full of skilled and athletic players, good enough to make a run in the Big Dance, but in this matchup, my money is on the more cohesive team. According to KenPom, Virginia is the fourth-most experienced team in the country and had the 13th-highest percentage of roster continuity from last season. The Cavaliers play relentless defense and don't turn the ball over, usually a successful combination this time of year. Considering this game has a good chance of coming down to the final minute, I'm taking the team that's more likely to get a stop and force a turnover. I'm backing Virginia in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Virginia +2
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Penn State +3
- Xavier +2
- Virginia +2
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the College Basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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