Before we begin looking at this trio of Game 5 matchups, I am compelled to brag a bit. The first round of the playoffs has been very kind to me. Coming into this evening, I have finished with a profit in 10 consecutive slates, with one night totaling a 6x return on investment. My longest streak this year was 11 slates, so we're looking to match my record. We have two elimination games looming tonight, with the Rockets and Pistons up against it. The Raptors and Cavaliers will continue their hotly contested series, and we've found ample opportunities for production in that game. We face one puzzle to complete before game lock, and I'll elaborate on it below.
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We have a major problem facing us tonight, and it centers around the Lakers. Will Austin Reaves play? At the time of publishing, it's anyone's guess, but we'll need to account for him if he's active. His presence will take away values that we desperately need to stay under the cap. The worst-case scenario is that Reaves plays without restriction, but I also think that's the least likely outcome. I would prefer him to play with a minute cap or miss the game altogether - it would make lineup construction a lot simpler.
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NBA Injuries Today
For all the latest updates, visit RotoWire's NBA Injury News page and our comprehensive NBA Injury Report. Below are some of the most recent and relevant injuries for Wednesday.
ORL Franz Wagner (calf) - QUESTIONABLE
Wagner had a great total going before leaving with the calf strain. This is unrelated to the ankle injury that sidelined him for six weeks, so he has a shot at returning. If he can't make it, I will turn to Desmond Bane ($6,700) as the primary beneficiary.
TOR Immanuel Quickley (hamstring) - OUT
We won't see Quickley anytime soon. Pivots for Quickley aren't performing well enough to consider, so stick with the other starters.
HOU Kevin Durant (ankle) - OUT
Tari Eason ($5,900) is the direct pivot for Durant's absence, but my money is on Jabari Smith ($6,400) as the biggest beneficiary here.
LAL Austin Reaves (oblique) - QUESTIONABLE
LAL Luka Doncic (hamstring) - OUT
We now revisit the biggest question mark of the night. We have no idea whether Reaves will play, and it puts almost every Laker option in a play-or-no-play basket. If he's out, we can go back to Luke Kennard ($5,000) and Marcus Smart ($6,300) without hesitation. I think LeBron James ($9,800) is relatively safe, but his salary will probably force me to fade him. Wait for news about Reaves before loading up here.
Elite Players
We only have one player over the $10k threshold in Wednesday's player pool, and it's Detroit's Cade Cunningham ($10,200). Unfortunately, he hasn't exceeded 5x value for a salary this high since mid-March, and his results against Orlando have been solid but not as explosive as we'd like. With Detroit up against it, you could do a lot worse than spending up for him in hopes of a heroic outing.
We already mentioned James as a high-priced, likely fade at the $9k level. I have interest in Alperen Sengun ($9,600) and Scottie Barnes ($9,200), however. Durant's absence should result in more action for Sengun, and Barnes' past of 60.8 and 50.5 FDFPs places him squarely in my sights.
We have some tough questions to answer in the $8k range, since there are several ways to go. I'm fine with limiting Amen Thompson ($8,800) and Donovan Mitchell ($8,700), leaving Paolo Banchero ($8,500) and James Harden ($8,300) as potential adds. Banchero is the best option at this level, and I would place Thompson, Mitchell and Harden on the same plane. If I had to make a choice, it would likely be Thompson, given Durant's absence.
Expected Chalk, Mid-Range Targets and Value Plays
RJ Barrett, TOR ($7,200) @ CLE
Barrett has danced around 5x relative to this salary throughout the series, and his recent shooting has indicated he could go on a tear at any time. I'm a little leery of playing on the road, but this is a critical moment for the Raptors, who could gain the upper hand and go 3-2 in this series.
Reed Sheppard, HOU ($6,200) @ LAL
Although Sheppard is very shot-dependent, he's come in handy amid Kevin Durant's absences and should post a solid shot volume as the Rockets try to stave off elimination. I'm not keen on stacking someone like Thompson, Eason or Smith with him, but I think the correlation between Sheppard and Sengun would work fine.
Ausar Thompson, DET ($6,100) vs. ORL
Thompson doesn't have the steadiest floor, but the potential to pop is certainly there -- as evidenced by his 51.1-FDFP effort in Game 3. If he doesn't explode, we can still hope for a number approaching 30 FDFPs, which is close to the value target we need to make him worthwhile. Since we are on Thompson, it seems like a good time to mention Tobias Harris ($6,500). His solid and steady production has boosted his salary a bit, but I think he's still viable at $6,500, especially with elimination on the line.
Jarrett Allen, CLE ($6,000) vs. TOR
We have dual eligibility for Allen, and he'll most likely be in the PF column for me. I prefer Allen over Evan Mobley due to the reduced salary and a very stable floor during this series. He's hit the 5x value target consistently throughout, and he could go well past that if he can put the outstanding rebounding and decent scoring together.
Wendell Carter, ORL ($5,300) @ DET
Carter has only disappointed once in this series, and I believe he was in the perfect lineup for his explosion against Detroit in Game 1 of the series. The center position will probably be our toughest call this evening outside of the Lakers' issues, but Carter works well, especially since we can still use guys like Allen and Sengun in PF slots.
Rui Hachimura, LAL ($5,200) vs. HOU
Be careful with Rui, as he could be a casualty of Reaves' return. I think he's a great option if Reaves is out again, and I think it's in the team's best interests to stick with what works. Reaves will muddy up the rotation if he plays with a minute cap, so I'll keep my ear to the ground and wait on Hachimura until I hear more news.
